Hangzhou alone has more than 9,<> registered ride-hailing vehicles, and the transportation capacity in many places in the country is saturated
To make the money three years ago, the driver said he might have to run an extra 2 hours a day
Is it time to "brake" the "crazy" ride-hailing car?
After three years of cold winter, the ride-hailing industry has finally ushered in a "small spring".
According to data released by the Ministry of Transport, in the first quarter of 2023, the number of online ride-hailing orders nationwide has been on the rise, rising by 14.1%, 13.30% and 9.70% respectively in the first three months; The number of orders in the ride-hailing industry in March was 3 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.16%.
However, while the industry is picking up, risks are also emerging -
On May 5, the Sanya Municipal Transportation Bureau issued a notice deciding to suspend the acceptance of online ride-hailing business licenses and the issuance of transportation certificates.
In addition, in the past month, Jinan, Wenzhou, Dongguan, Suining and other places have also issued online car saturation warnings, reminding practitioners to be cautious about "admission".
On April 4, the Jinan Urban and Rural Transport Bureau issued a risk warning that the city's ride-hailing market capacity has basically been saturated, and the average daily order volume of bicycles is less than 6.
In mid-April, the Wenzhou Municipal Transportation Department released information that more than 4,2022 new licensed drivers in the city will not be released to work in 9000.
On April 4, Dongguan Transportation Network reminded that the number of orders received by ride-hailing drivers in the city is declining, and the work intensity is increasing, and nearly eighty percent of vehicles receive less than 19 orders per day.
In early May, the Suining Municipal Transportation Bureau issued an early warning to remind local people who intend to engage in ride-hailing that the local ride-hailing capacity is saturated and cautious to enter the industry.
What signals have been released by government departments in many places with frequent early warnings and strengthened control? Can I still make money by driving an online ride?
There are departures, perseverance, and constant influxes
From 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., 28 lists and a turnover of 620 yuan, which is the harvest of 42-year-old Hangzhou ride-hailing driver He Li in one day.
He Li is a native of Hangzhou, who has been traveling for 8 years, and a driver like him who drives for 2 or <> hours a day can be regarded as a "model worker". He is familiar with Hangzhou roads and can avoid congestion as much as possible during rush hour. Still, to earn the same amount of money as three years ago, you now have to drive <> hours more a day.
"Open a platform, there are about 50 ride-hailing companies on it, it's too rolled." Ho Lee said there is no shortage of non-compliant vehicles and drivers. According to his estimates, income is now down 10 yuan an hour compared with three years ago, and 14 yuan less on a 140-hour trip.
Before 2018, in a big city like Hangzhou, it was not a dream for a diligent driver to earn more than <>,<> yuan a month.
However, as more and more people poured in, the share of cake began to decrease. He Lijia's group of ride-hailing drivers, more than 400 people, including local, but also from Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, etc., one of which can reach 10000,12000 yuan per month, accounting for about half; If it reaches more than 30,25 yuan, it is estimated that only 30%. After deducting <>%~<>% of the platform commission and third-party information service fees and other costs, it is rare to have a monthly net income of more than <>,<>.
Tired of driving and earning less, some drivers chose to flee. In July last year, Ms. Shen, who opened an online taxi in Jinhua, quit after driving for less than a year because she "couldn't eat her health and didn't earn much money."
There are also people who keep coming in. According to data released by the Ministry of Transport, as of March 2023, 3, a total of 31 ride-hailing platform companies across the country had obtained operating licenses for ride-hailing platforms, an increase of 307 year-on-year. A total of 40.522 million ride-hailing driver licenses and 9.225 million vehicle transportation licenses were issued in various places, an increase of 0.115 million and 6,61 respectively year-on-year. This means that more than a million licensed ride-hailing drivers have been pouring into the track in the past year.
Why are so many people going to ride-hailing?
Xu Xing, who is engaged in the operation of a leading ride-hailing platform, said that first, the industry threshold is low, basically as long as you can drive; Second, most ride-hailing drivers do not have many skills, and in manual labor, driving an online ride-hailing is a well-paid job, "can't make a lot of money, at least it can solve the food and clothing of the family."
In addition, this group is mainly middle-aged and above. This also means that they face many constraints such as age in choosing a career.
The surge in ride-hailing is testing city management
On May 5, Sanya City stopped issuing "two certificates" for online ride-hailing, which attracted attention.
A staff member of the local transportation management bureau said that the main reason for this control measure is that the number of ride-hailing platforms and ride-hailing vehicles in Sanya has soared in recent years, and the capacity has become saturated, which has led to prominent illegal operations.
In fact, as early as two years ago, the Sanya Municipal Transportation Bureau issued an early warning notice on investment in the ride-hailing passenger transport market, but with little success. As of October 2020, Sanya had 10,5100 ride-hailing vehicles. By June 2022, the number of vehicles had reached 6,10709, doubling in two years. At present, this figure has increased significantly, and it has now reached about 1,6 vehicles.
Not only Sanya, the saturation of ride-hailing capacity has become a "new trouble" for many cities.
The reporter sorted out the common problems in various places, first of all, the surge in the number of online ride-hailing. For example, Jinan, since 2019, the number of ride-hailing and employees has increased significantly, and the number of ride-hailing vehicles has exceeded 18000,8643, compared with the data of <>,<> cruise taxis, which has reached the local warning value.
In the second half of 2022, there were 1492,113 cruise taxis in Dongguan, down 40083 from the first half of the year, and 9476,<> ride-hailing vehicles, a surge of <>,<> from the first half of the year, while ride-hailing drivers increased by nearly <>,<>.
The proliferation of ride-hailing is also a challenge for urban traffic management. "At present, the number of ride-hailing and carrying capacity in many cities in China have affected the normal traffic structure." Wu Weiqiang, an expert who has long been engaged in traffic research and a professor at the School of Public Administration of Zhejiang University of Technology, told reporters that if a city has too many ride-hailing cars and low freight price competition, it will directly seize the bus travel market. The result is to reduce the proportion of metro and bus trips in the total travel structure, which ultimately leads to urban traffic congestion.
Taking Hangzhou as an example, there are currently more than 9,150 registered ride-hailing vehicles in the city, with a daily passenger volume of 20.<> million, which has exceeded the average daily passenger traffic of buses. Metro and bus travel is less than <>% of the total travel structure. In response to this situation, Wu Weiqiang believes that "the government should intervene early to strengthen supervision".
The "second half" of ride-hailing: where to go
How much ride-hailing does a city need to be appropriate?
In 2016, the General Office of the State Council pointed out in the guiding opinions on deepening reform and promoting the healthy development of the rental car industry: "According to the characteristics of large, medium, and small cities, the diversified travel needs of the public and the positioning of taxi development, we should comprehensively consider factors such as population number, economic development level, urban traffic congestion, taxi mileage utilization rate, etc., reasonably grasp the scale of taxi capacity and the proportion of sharing in the urban comprehensive transportation system, establish a dynamic monitoring and adjustment mechanism, and gradually realize market regulation." ”
Monitoring models have been established in existing cities. For example, at the end of 2022, Shenzhen began to explore the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the scale of ride-hailing capacity, once the average daily order volume of ride-hailing vehicles changes by less than -10%, the average daily order volume of bicycles is less than 11, the mileage utilization rate of cruise vehicles is less than 60%, and 3 of the three conditions are met, an early warning will be triggered for government decision-making reference.
In recent years, there have been more and more voices for implementing total volume control on ride-hailing, but most cities prefer to find a balance through market regulation. Or through market warning, remind that "the ride-hailing market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering".
Wu Weiqiang said that the government should "open the sky and control the bottom line" when it comes to policy regulation.
In his view, total volume regulation is not a simple quantity control, but on the premise of clarifying the strategic goals of urban transportation, using various means to adjust the supply of online ride-hailing and improve government regulations, including access and exit mechanisms, evaluation systems, reward and punishment systems, supervision mechanisms, and so on.
"What the government does is mainly to standardize the operation of the platform and improve the service level and service quality. The rest is left to the market. ”
Some insiders also suggested that to solve the internal involvement of the ride-hailing industry, the visible hand of the government should not only strengthen industry control, but also carry out more skills training for low-skilled people.
For the ride-hailing industry, entering the second half and focusing on improving industry services, user experience and model innovation and change may usher in the real "spring". (Qianjiang Evening News reporter Zhu Zheping)