24 "trillion cities" quarterly report: Xi'an led the growth rate, 1 city negative growth

Author: Li Xiuzhong

At present, the first quarter economic data of 24 trillion-level cities with a trillion GDP have all been released. Among them, Xi'an and Shenzhen are undoubtedly the "most beautiful", with GDP growth of 7.6% and 6.5% respectively in the first quarter. Among the 24 cities, Xi'an ranked first in terms of growth rate; Among the top ten larger cities, Shenzhen led the rise sharply.

Behind the rise led by Xi'an and Shenzhen

Among the 24 cities with a trillion-dollar GDP, 14 cities exceeded or maintained the national average growth rate (4.5%) in the first quarter, Xi'an was 3.1 percentage points higher than the national growth rate, and also 1.1 percentage points ahead of Shenzhen, the second place in terms of growth.

With this growth rate, Xi'an once again crossed the threshold of the top 20 in the first quarter of this year, rising from 22nd to 18th at the end of last year; At the same time, cities such as Jinan, Hefei, Nantong and Quanzhou, which exceeded trillion GDP together in 2020, overtook from the bottom to the leading position among the five "promoted horses" that year.

Stepping into the "Top 20" is a long-cherished wish of Xi'an. In 2018, Xi'an was already able to rank 20th in terms of total GDP, but in December 2018, Jinan jumped from 12rd to 23th place after merging with Laiwu, pushing Xi'an out of the top 18. In the first quarter of 20, at the beginning of the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Xi'an jumped 2020 places to 6th, but with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, Xi'an still ranked 18nd that year.

Zeng Zhaoning, a member of the Decision Advisory Committee of the Shaanxi Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government and a professor at Xi'an Shiyou University, told First Finance and Economics that Xi'an's economic growth rate is relatively high, mainly due to outstanding industrial performance, especially the new energy vehicle industry. Last year, Xi'an's new energy vehicle production was already the first in the country, and Xi'an has a basic advantage in developing the new energy vehicle industry, and it can maintain this trend in the future.

According to data released by the Xi'an Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size in the city increased by 11.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. From the perspective of industry, the total output value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 16.4% year-on-year, which was 1.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the total output value of industries above designated size in the city. Among them, the total output value of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 37.5%.

The new energy vehicle industry, especially BYD, has become an important driving force. According to data released by the Shaanxi Automobile Industry Association, in the first quarter, Shaanxi Province's automobile production reached 30,74 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%; The output value increased by 28.8% year-on-year. Among them, Xi'an BYD Auto achieved automobile production of 20,2 units in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%; The output value increased by 61.6% year-on-year.

The reason why Shenzhen is leading also benefits from the growth of the new energy vehicle industry. In the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size in Shenzhen increased by 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over January ~ February. Among the major industry categories, the added value of automobile manufacturing above designated size increased by 3.7%. In addition, the output of new energy vehicles and charging piles increased by 75.8% and 127.6% respectively.

According to data released by the Pingshan District Statistics Bureau of Shenzhen, where BYD's headquarters is located, the GDP in the first quarter was 262.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. Among them, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 24.5%, and the total output value of industries above designated size increased by 36.4%. The total output value growth rate of the top ten industries such as automobile manufacturing and special equipment manufacturing reached 47.8%, which was 11.4 percentage points higher than the industrial average above the standard.

The Industrial Statistics Department of Jinan Statistics Bureau also said when interpreting the industrial operation that in the first quarter, all new enterprises drove the industrial growth of 4.7 percentage points. Affected by the favorable impact of BYD's new energy vehicle production and rolling off the production line, the added value of the new and old kinetic energy conversion starting area (straight pipe) increased by 353.7% year-on-year, driving the city's growth by 2.2 percentage points.

Since the second half of 2021, BYD has laid out battery and chip production bases and automobile production bases in Jinan. In January 2022, BYD acquired nearly 1,10 mu of land in Jinan with 31.4000 billion yuan. One of the two industrial parks built by BYD in Jinan is responsible for battery manufacturing and the other is responsible for vehicle manufacturing.

Northern cities are returning strongly?

Not only Xi'an, 24 of the 6 cities in the north have an overall higher growth rate in the first quarter of this year than that of southern cities. Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao and Beijing increased by 7.6%, 6.0%, 5.5%, 4.9%, 4.8% and 3.1% respectively, most of which were higher than the national level, with Xi'an and Zhengzhou ranking first and third respectively.

In contrast, 18 of the 10 southern cities grew below the national average of 4.5% in the first quarter. Among them, Dongguan, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Fuzhou and Quanzhou GDP growth in the first quarter was 2.2%, 1.9%, 1.8%, 1.7% and -1.8% respectively.

From the data point of view, industry is an important reason for the decline in the growth rate of southern cities. In the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size in Suzhou, Dongguan, Guangzhou and Fuzhou decreased by 2.7%, 5.1%, 5.8% and 8.8% year-on-year. The Quanzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics did not release data on the added value of industries above designated size in its first-quarter economic operation.

The Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics interpreted that due to factors such as insufficient market demand, in the first quarter, the added value of Guangzhou's automobile manufacturing industry fell by 12.0% year-on-year; The electronics manufacturing industry fell 8.9% year-on-year, putting pressure on the city's industrial growth. According to the monthly report data released by the Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, from January to March, the total output value of industries above designated size in Suzhou's four major industries, namely electronic information industry, equipment manufacturing industry, advanced materials industry and biomedical industry, increased by -1.3%, 3.9%, -1.2% and -13.8% respectively.

There is no GDP data in the first quarter economic data released by the Quanzhou Statistics Bureau, and the "Main Economic Indicators of Fujian Province and Districted Cities" released by the Ningde Municipal Bureau of Statistics shows that Quanzhou's GDP in the first quarter was 2543.02 billion yuan, an increase of -1.8%. However, at present, the website of the Ningde Municipal Bureau of Statistics no longer has this data.

On April 4, the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics released the preliminary accounting results of the first quarter of regional GDP: Fujian's GDP in the first quarter was 28.12061 billion yuan, an increase of 86.1% over the same period of the previous year. The Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics analyzed that the reasons for the decline in industrial growth were "affected by factors such as insufficient market demand, rising operating costs of enterprises, and the peak turning time of the epidemic in our province is later than that of the whole country".

Relatively speaking, the industrial growth rate of northern cities is generally good. In the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size in Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao and Beijing increased by 11.6%, 8.4%, 3.1%, 12%, 4.8% and -7.4% respectively (excluding the production factor of new crown vaccines, it increased by 1.8%).

Aside from Xi'an and Jinan, which are dominated by the new energy vehicle industry, in Qingdao, the added value of industries above designated size in the city increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, 1.2 percentage points faster than in January ~ February. Among them, computer and office equipment manufacturing, medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing increased by 3.4% and 31.1% respectively.

Why did southern cities with manufacturing advantages generally decline in the first quarter of this year, inferior to northern cities?

Chen Yao, vice president and secretary general of the China Regional Economic Association, told First Finance and Economics that there are seasonal factors and special reasons for each city, these cities are eastern coastal cities, the degree of export is relatively high, which is related to the industrial structure, textile and garment and other industries are not in good shape, and the demand for electronic products is relatively stable, not as fast as the growth of new energy vehicles.

Chen Yao said that the first quarter of the city data gave some enlightenment, relying on exports of cities, the impact of insufficient demand is obvious, and a considerable part of the demand structure in the international market is changing. Although it has the advantages of traditional industries, the industry demand will not grow rapidly. At present, the structure of consumer demand is changing, and the adjustment of the city's product and industrial structure must adapt to new changes in demand.

Zeng Zhaoning also said that although the new energy vehicle industry is now in a good situation, it is not possible for a city's economic development to count on one or two industries, and the risk is too great. Moreover, the new energy vehicle industry is also facing the possibility of industry reshuffle, so the city should develop some strategic emerging industries.