Near the end of the month, the central bank began to increase the amount of reverse repurchase operation -
The capital side runs smoothly
Yao Jin, reporter of this newspaper
Recently, in order to protect the smooth cross-section of market liquidity, the People's Bank of China has opened an increase reverse repurchase operation. On April 4, the People's Bank of China announced that a 28-day reverse repurchase operation of 1650 billion yuan was carried out by way of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate was 7.2%. As RMB00 billion of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, the open market achieved a net investment of RMB880 billion.
According to statistics, from April 4 and 21, the central bank's 23-day reverse repurchase operation increased to 7 billion yuan and 880 billion yuan respectively. On the 890th, the central bank carried out a 24 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation for the first time since April, and the winning bid volume reached 4 billion yuan. Experts believe that the incremental scale of the medium-term lending facility (MLF) in April was only 1150 billion yuan, which was lower than market expectations, coupled with the impact of tax period disturbance, the financing funds of large banks decreased, and the funding rate showed an upward trend this month. At this time, the central bank increased the intensity of reverse repurchase in the open market, which helped ease the shortage of funds at the end of the month.
On April 4, short-end interest rates rose across the board. The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) rose 28.126 basis points overnight to 6.2%. The seven-day Shibor rose 134.7 basis points to 8.9%. From the performance of the repo rate, as of 2:3 on the 28th, the weighted average interest rate of DR11 rose to 30.007%, which was higher than the policy interest rate.
"The central bank has increased the intensity of open market operations and increased liquidity in order to iron out the impact of factors such as tax period disturbances, short-term fluctuations in funds at the end of the month, and the reduction of funds by large banks, so as to meet the capital needs of institutions, improve the marginal convergence of funds, smooth the continuous upward momentum of funding interest rates, ensure that market liquidity is at a reasonable and sufficient level and smoothly cross the month, ensure that the center of funding interest rates does not deviate significantly from policy interest rates, and ensure that financial institutions manage interest rate risks." Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research for JLL Greater China, said.
Based on the characteristics of previous operations, Pang expects that the central bank will flexibly use a variety of tools to carry out open market operations according to changes in liquidity supply and demand and market interest rates, continue to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and maintain stable market expectations and stable operation.
Zhou Maohua, macro researcher of the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, believes that the central bank has recently moderately increased the operation of reverse repurchase tools, net investment of funds, mainly due to the end of the month and other short-term factors interference, market interest rates have risen, institutional capital demand has increased, the central bank flexible operation, conducive to meeting institutional capital needs.
"This operation of the central bank has released a signal that the capital level at the end of the month is stable and continues to maintain market interest rates and liquidity at a reasonable level." Zhou Maohua said that the continued strengthening of domestic economic recovery momentum may benefit the atmosphere of the stock and bond markets. Next, it is expected that the central bank will continue to operate flexibly through open market tools such as reverse repurchase to hedge short-term capital disturbances, and funds will smoothly cross the section.
Looking forward to the future market, the central bank has also made a clear statement on the direction of monetary policy that the market is concerned about recently. "In the first quarter of this year, the financial operation was generally stable, the liquidity was reasonable and abundant, the credit structure continued to be optimized, the financing cost of the real economy decreased steadily, and the strength of financial support for the real economy was significantly enhanced." At a press conference on financial statistics for the first quarter of 4 held on April 20, Ruan Jianhong, director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, said that in the next stage, the central bank will continue to consolidate its sustainable support for the real economy, maintain the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale basically match nominal economic growth, consolidate the momentum of economic expansion, and better serve China's modernization. It is expected that the growth of credit delivery and social financing scale will remain stable in 2023.
"Since the Silicon Valley Bank risk incident, interest rate risk has attracted more attention. At the end of last year, China's asset management market fluctuated, which also warned us to attach great importance to interest rate risk. China adheres to the implementation of prudent monetary policy, and interest rates have not fluctuated, which has created a better monetary environment for financial institutions to manage interest rate risks. Zou Lan, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, mentioned that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, adhere to the principle of self-centeredness, maintain the reasonable growth of monetary credit, ensure that the interest rate level is appropriate, give full play to the guiding role of structural monetary policy tools, and support economic and social development to make a good start at a new starting point.
Pang Min believes that the incremental scale of MLF in April is lower than market expectations, emphasizing that structural monetary policy tools should be "focused on key points, reasonable and moderate, with progress and retreat", indicating that under the premise of continuing the steady tone, monetary policy will promote policy deployment, tool use, liquidity delivery, and credit transmission to be more accurate and efficient, scientific and reasonable, and have a stable rhythm. Strength and validity, to actively support the stabilization of the macroeconomic market and promote steady economic recovery and growth.
Zhou Maohua believes that the central bank has moderately increased open market operations recently, and the market interest rate has returned to below the policy interest rate and operated near the policy interest rate, reflecting that the market liquidity remains reasonable and abundant. In the short term, in addition to factors such as tax payment, payment of approval, and the end of the month, it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of bond issuance, the rhythm of fiscal expenditure and the financing demand of the real economy on the capital disturbance. On the whole, the central bank has many tools to deal with short-term interference factors, and under the active fiscal policy and the protection of monetary policy, market liquidity is expected to maintain a reasonable and sufficient pattern. (Economic Daily)