• Why economists predict 200,000 new jobs in all of 2023 if we already have 250,000

The number of unemployed people in the country grew by 103,800 people in the first quarter, with which the unemployment rate, which in the previous quarter had stood at 12.87%, climbed to 13.26%, according to the Active Population Survey (EPA) published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics.

For its part, employment in number of employed fell by 11,100 people, the fall in employment in a first quarter lower since 2007 and much lower than that registered last year, when it fell by 100,200 people due to the impact of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the accelerated increase in inflation, Especially in March, which unleashed a wave of uncertainty that affected the labor market. That year, Holy Week was also in April, as in 2023, with which homogeneous periods are being compared.

With this evolution, the number of workers in the country stands at 20,452,800, while the number of unemployed rises to 3,127,800.

The fall in employment occurs mainly in the private sector, where 8,800 employed people were lost in the first three months of the year, although there was also a fall in workers in the public sector, of 2,300 people. By sectors, industry, agriculture and construction are mainly responsible for the declines, since they had 11,200, 5,000 and 2,700 fewer workers, respectively. In services, 7,800 jobs were created.

The data known today contrast with those of affiliation and unemployment published monthly by the Ministries of Social Security and Labor, respectively. On the one hand, those of affiliation registered an increase of 80,000 average affiliates in the first quarter, which will be followed by a spectacular behavior of employment in April, according to the department of José Luis Escrivá, so that until April 14 the creation of employment would amount to about 250,000 people.

However, as this media reported, for the whole of the year economists foresee a total job creation of 200,000 full-time equivalent jobs, which means that the employment created so far is not full-time or that there will be a slowdown or even destruction of jobs in the second half of the year.

On the other hand, the EPA serves to know how the number of people who are out of work in the country really evolves -between those who are considered unemployed and the inactive- in a more realistic way than the unemployment data disclosed by the Public State Employment Service, since they do not break down how many discontinuous permanent workers are in a period of inactivity and, therefore, without working and even receiving a benefit.

  • INE
  • Social security
  • José Luis Escrivá
  • Employment
  • Unemployment

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