Our reporter corrected the month
Trainee reporter Peng Yanxiang
Since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall, will the sodium-ion battery, which was once sought after by the market because of its cost-effective advantages, fall out of favor?
"The decline in lithium prices continues to benefit the downstream, and the price advantage of sodium-ion batteries has declined, and their cost performance has been further reduced." Some insiders said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that in the long run, power batteries will show a diversified technical route, risk factors will flatten and stabilize, and the value of production capacity will gradually appear in the future.
Some battery manufacturers told reporters: "In the long run, sodium-ion batteries still have room for development." ”
Sodium-ion batteries
The price-performance advantage is reduced
Since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has slipped from about 60,20 yuan / ton last year to less than 4,24 yuan / ton in the recent past, and the fluctuation continues. According to data released by Shanghai Steel Union, on April 18, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 13,75 yuan / ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was reported at <>,<> yuan / ton.
The person in charge of a lithium battery material manufacturer told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "In the short term, lithium prices have not yet bottomed out; In the long run, the downstream consumer market will bring a certain increment, but it is difficult for lithium prices to exceed the anchor price of 20,<> yuan / ton. ”
In the eyes of the industry, the previous lithium price of 60,<> yuan / ton will become history. This is undoubtedly good for lithium battery downstream enterprises.
So, in the context of falling lithium prices, will sodium-ion batteries, which were once popular in the market because of their cost-effective advantages, fall out of favor?
"Today, for sodium-ion batteries that are still in the research and development period, the cost-effective advantages that were once proud need to be re-examined." Zhang Lijie, senior investment consultant of Jufeng Investment Advisory, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that when lithium prices were high, the low cost and easy availability of raw materials for sodium-ion batteries were the advantages that the market paid the most attention to. However, considering the slow commercialization of sodium-ion batteries, after the decline in lithium prices, the cost performance of lithium batteries has gradually returned, and the cost-effective advantages of sodium-ion batteries are no longer obvious.
Liu Qi, a special researcher and doctoral supervisor at the School of Materials of Beijing Institute of Technology, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter: "At present, the technical route and market positioning of sodium-ion batteries in the short term are not clear. Power batteries will still be dominated by lithium batteries, especially with the decline in lithium carbonate prices, the scale and proportion of lithium batteries will be further increased in the short term. ”
Listed companies are advancing in an orderly manner
Research and development of sodium-ion batteries
Choice data shows that of the 49 listed companies with the current concept of "sodium battery", 20 have disclosed their 2022 results. Among them, the revenue of 6 companies increased by more than 100% year-on-year; The R&D investment of 10 companies has exceeded 2 million yuan.
Although there is a layout, the seeds sown have not yet blossomed. Chuanyi Technology, Tongxing Environmental Protection, Baichuan Co., Ltd. and many other listed companies with layouts in the field of sodium-ion batteries told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Sodium-ion batteries have not yet entered the market on a large scale. ”
The secretary of the board of directors of Transcend Technology told reporters, "The company's sodium-ion battery is still in the climbing period. Xu Shouhao, a representative of Tongxing Environmental Protection Securities, told reporters, "At present, sodium-ion batteries are still in continuous research and development, and the relevant production lines are still in the assembly and testing stage." The person in charge of the securities department of Baichuan Co., Ltd. also said, "The two sodium-ion battery products released by the company's subsidiary Haiji New Energy on February 2 can be applied to electric bicycles, but there is no mass production at present." ”
On the whole, the sodium-ion battery products laid out by these companies are still some distance from real mass production. Although the current sodium-ion battery industry is not mature, the industry generally affirms the necessity of the development of sodium-ion batteries, and its long-term still has the effect of stabilizing lithium prices and reducing battery costs. Therefore, the development of sodium-ion batteries by related companies is still in order.
A number of sodium-ion battery manufacturers told reporters that the previously expanded sodium-ion battery production capacity is still being developed and sampled as planned, and there is no project suspension or shelving.
When it comes to whether the company will subtract the production line, the head of many enterprises such as Far East Holdings clearly said, "There is no such situation, if such a decision is made, the company will face greater cost pressure." "However, in terms of expansion, most companies have expressed a more cautious attitude.
Some companies said that the company's sodium-ion batteries are expected to be put into production within half a year to one year. Taking Pritt as an example, the company invested in the construction of a 12.1GWh production line compatible with sodium and lithium ions in December last year, and the relevant business leader of the company said, "It is expected that large-scale production will be put into operation in the second half of this year and delivery will be completed." Shao Liang, secretary of the board secretary of Far East Shares, also told reporters: "The first generation of sodium-ion battery products currently developed has now entered the A-sample optimization stage, and the specific landing time may range from half a year to one year according to market feedback." ”
Power battery pattern
Will diversify
For battery companies still continue to invest in sodium-ion battery production lines, Liu Qi analyzed: "In the long run, with the development of intelligence, electrification and the limitation of lithium resource reserves, resource-rich sodium-ion batteries as an important supplement to lithium batteries will also usher in rapid development. ”
A company's securities affairs representative told the "Securities Daily" reporter that compared with lithium batteries, sodium-ion batteries have special application scenarios, such as base station backup, special vehicles and household storage. The company is negotiating with customers on the landing scenario of sodium batteries, and will not abandon the planning of sodium-ion batteries due to the reduction of lithium prices.
In the view of interviewed industry insiders, the future development trend of power batteries is diversified, so sodium-ion batteries still have room for development.
The reporter learned that at present, there are still lithium battery companies interested in sodium-ion batteries. Zhang Yi, secretary of Longpan Technology, which is mainly engaged in lithium iron phosphate business, told reporters, "In the future, the company may also deploy sodium-ion batteries. ”
A number of industry insiders told reporters that the layout of sodium-ion batteries is still necessary. With the advancement of technology and the increase of market demand, the market space of lithium batteries, sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, etc. will be further opened, and the future power battery pattern will tend to be diversified. (Securities Daily)