Barthélémy Philippe, edited by Romain Rouillard 06h12, April 19, 2023After three months of social chaos, the pension reform was promulgated at the end of last week, in the wake of the favorable opinion rendered by the Constitutional Council. Justified by financial imperatives, it could in fact not ensure the financial balance of the regime by 2030.
What if the pension reform fails to achieve its goal? Promulgated on the night of Friday to Saturday, after three months of strong social protest, the text of the law may not ensure the financial balance of the pension plan by 2030. This is in any case what the work of the institute of economic studies Rexecode shows.
The pension reform is expected to bring in just over €13 billion per year from 2030. However, on this date, the pension deficit will far exceed this sum and the transition to 64 years will erase only part of the slate, according to Olivier Redoulès, director of studies at Rexecode. "It is believed that the deficit after the implementation of the reform will be between 7 and 20 billion euros. In any case, we have a persistent deficit. So we have a reform that has a significant impact but is not enough to fully fill the pension deficit. And so we expect, after a while, to put the subject back on the table," he explains.
Overly optimistic estimates from the government?
This larger than expected deficit is explained by the assumptions made by the government in the impact study of the reform. Namely, an unemployment rate of 4.5% and growth of 1.3%. "We have a problem of optimistic bias of the government on this horizon 2027, 2030. With assumptions about growth and unemployment that are not totally implausible but in any case very optimistic," says Olivier Redoulès.
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For its part, the Rexecode institute prefers to count on an unemployment rate of 7% and growth of 1% by 2030. A less favourable economic situation, synonymous with lower revenues in the pension funds. However, the Rexecode institute considers the effect of the pension reform on growth and employment positive. It would allow the France to gain 1.1 GDP point in 2030 and 300,000 additional jobs.