The "report card" of the first quarter was released, and China's economy started well

Beijing, April 4 (Zhongxin Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) In the spring of the beginning, the momentum of "fighting for the economy" in various places is strong, and the gears of high-quality development are accelerating. As the "opening season", what kind of report card has China's economy handed over in the first quarter?

On April 4, the National Bureau of Statistics released China's economic data for the first quarter: production demand stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter, employment prices were generally stable, residents' income continued to increase, market expectations improved significantly, and economic operation started well.

Data map: Ningbo Zhoushan Port. Photo courtesy

Good start

——Production demand stabilized and rebounded

From the production side, in the first quarter, industrial production gradually recovered, and the added value of industries above designated size in the country increased by 3.0% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of the previous year; the service industry also rebounded significantly, and the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 3.1 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of the previous year.

From the demand side, market sales recovered relatively quickly in the first quarter, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 114922 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, compared with a decrease of 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, retail sales of goods increased by 4.9%, catering revenue increased by 13.9%, and retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry, books, newspapers and magazines increased by 13.6% and 13.4% respectively.

- Employment prices are generally stable and there will be no deflation

As the foundation of people's livelihood, the employment situation remained generally stable in the first quarter, and the urban survey unemployment rate declined. The average urban survey unemployment rate nationwide was 5.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year.

Looking at prices closely related to life, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year, and the supply of goods and services in the market was generally sufficient and remained at a moderate rising level.

In response to the recent discussion on whether China's economy will enter deflation, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said that on the whole, there is no deflation in the current Chinese economy, and there will be no deflation in the next stage.

He pointed out that international deflation is defined as a continuous decline in the overall price level, often accompanied by a decrease in the money supply and economic recession. However, in the first quarter, China's consumer prices rose by 1.3% year-on-year, the broad money M3 increased by 2.12% at the end of March, and China's economy grew by 7.4% year-on-year in the first quarter.

"From the next stage, prices will recover steadily, price drivers will gradually strengthen, and there will be no so-called deflationary situation." Fu Linghui said.

-- Residents' income continues to increase

In the first quarter, residents' income grew steadily, and the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 10870,5 yuan, a nominal increase of 1.0% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous year; excluding price factors, the actual increase was 8.<>%.

Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 14388,4 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.2% year-on-year, and an actual increase of 7.6131%; The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 6,1 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.8% year-on-year, and an actual increase of <>.<>%.

——Market expectations have improved significantly

With good data comes a growing confidence. In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 3.51%, which was in the boom range for three consecutive months; The non-manufacturing business activity index was 9.58%, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, the highest level in recent years, of which the service sector business activity index rose to 9.56%.

Infographic: City view. Photo by Xiang Fei

Economic growth is expected to pick up gradually throughout the year

Since the beginning of this year, China's imports and exports have maintained sustained growth on the basis of last year's high base, and the total import and export of goods in the first quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 8.4%, maintaining rapid growth.

Fu Linghui pointed out that China's import and export growth will face certain pressure in the next stage, first, the world economic growth is weak, and second, the external uncertainty is relatively large. "Despite the pressure and challenges, China's foreign trade has obvious characteristics of strong resilience and vitality, and under the role of various foreign trade stabilization policies, it is expected to achieve the goal of promoting stability and improving quality throughout the year."

He also pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the overall consumption has shown a recovery trend, and the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth in the first quarter reached 66.6%, which is significantly higher than last year, and is the most important factor driving economic growth among the three major demands. However, it should also be noted that residents' willingness to consume needs to be further improved.

"In the next stage, we must do everything possible to increase residents' income, actively increase high-quality supply, effectively combine the expansion of consumption with supply-side structural reform, continuously release consumption potential, promote economic development, and improve people's livelihood and well-being." Fu Linghui said.

Regarding the economic prospects of the second quarter, Fu Linghui pointed out that since the beginning of this year, China's economy as a whole has shown a good trend of recovery, the main indicators have stabilized and rebounded, the vitality of business entities has been enhanced, and market expectations have improved significantly, laying a good foundation for achieving the expected development goals for the whole year.

He said that from the next stage, the endogenous driving force of China's economic growth is gradually strengthening, macro policies are effective, and economic operation is expected to improve as a whole. Considering that the base affected by the epidemic in the second quarter of last year was relatively low, the economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year may be significantly faster than in the first quarter; In the third and fourth quarters, as the base increases, the growth rate will decline compared with the second quarter.

"If the impact of the base is not considered, overall economic growth is expected to show a gradual upward trend throughout the year." Fu Linghui said. (End)