Beijing, April 4 (Zhongxin Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) On the basis of gradual stabilization in March, housing prices in March showed obvious signs of overall stabilization and recovery.

On April 4, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in March, among the 15 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly built commercial homes and second-hand homes increased month-on-month in 3 and 70 cities, respectively, an increase of 64 and 57 over the previous month.

"From the perspective of the 70-city house price index, the number and increase in the number of cities that rose in March and the increase have increased, and have risen for two consecutive months, indicating that the property market has basically confirmed the bottom, and the market will gradually enter the stage of stabilization and recovery." Lu Qilin, research director of 3 Anjuke Research Institute, said.

Real estate real estate. Photo by Zhang Bin, reporter of China News Agency

Housing prices in all tier cities increased month-on-month

The number of cities where house prices rose in March is a direct reflection of market conditions. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, found that the number of cities with rising house prices is the peak in the past four years.

"According to the ratio of the sum of the number of cities with rising new houses and second-hand houses in 70 cities and 140 data, that is, (the number of cities with rising new houses + the number of cities with rising second-hand housing prices)/140, the first, second, third and fourth tier house prices have fully stabilized, which is also the first 2019 months since April 4, and there has once again been more than 48% of the price increase ratio." Zhang Dawei pointed out.

From the perspective of growth, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month; the sales price of second-hand residential buildings increased by 0.5% month-on-month, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The sales prices of newly built commercial homes and second-hand homes in second-tier cities increased by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. Sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities increased by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate as the previous month; Second-hand residential sales prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month from flat in the previous month.

Sales price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 2023 large and medium-sized cities in March 3. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

"At present, the new house price index shows a good trend of 'maintaining positive growth month-on-month and continuing to narrow year-on-year decline'. The performance of the house price index has a good relationship with the active market trading. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said that housing sales in various places continued to rise strongly in March this year, further driving the recovery of the house price index.

In terms of second-hand housing, Yan Yuejin said that the number of cities where second-hand housing has increased month-on-month has increased significantly, indicating that landlords' expectations are changing. At present, the upward trend of second-hand housing transactions in key cities exceeds that of first-hand housing, which is worth paying attention to, especially the second-hand housing transactions of good school districts and good room types are better.

"The stabilization of housing prices is related to the policy promotion since the 'Financial 16' in the fourth quarter of last year, and it also shows that market confidence continues to recover." The better-than-expected trend of house prices in the first quarter will have a positive impact on housing companies and buyers in the second quarter. Yan Yuejin said.

What the future holds

"From the month-on-month decline in new house prices in most cities to the month-on-month increase in new house prices in most cities, only one quarter has gone through the process, indicating that the recovery of the property market is relatively rapid and relatively fast, which is rare in the past." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, pointed out.

According to the statistics of 58 Anjuke Research: In March, the national first-hand housing market continued the rebound in February, and the transaction volume of new houses in key cities increased by an average of more than 3% year-on-year. In March, the shelf time of second-hand houses in key cities fell by 2% month-on-month, which has fallen for two consecutive months, and the acceleration of buyers entering the market has led to the acceleration of housing transactions.

Second-hand residential sales price index for 2023 large and medium-sized cities in March 3. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

"Overall, in the case of comprehensive easing of various policies, the market has gradually bottomed. However, it should be noted that after the release of demand in the early stage, after the rise in house prices, the market once again appeared in the game. For the future trend of house prices, Zhang Dawei reminded.

He pointed out that from January to March 2023, the cumulative number of real estate policies in various places has been about 1 times, and the first home interest rate in more than 3 cities across the country has entered the "200-word head", the lowest first home interest rate has been pulled down to 50.3%, the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate has reached a new low since 3, and there is still room for further reduction of mortgage interest rates in various places.

Zhang Dawei said that from the perspective of market trends, the data in March continued to rise, especially in first-tier cities, and the trend of comprehensive house price increases has emerged. However, because the two-house policy has not been relaxed and other reasons, whether it can continue until the second quarter depends on the policy changes.

Lu Qilin also believes that due to the relatively fast recovery of the current property market, there is a possibility of overdraft in the short term, so it is more necessary for local governments to continue to introduce favorable policies to ensure the continuation of the recovery trend.

"At present, the regulation and control of the real estate market has gradually changed from 'one city, one policy' to 'one district, one policy', and through the adjustment of departmental regional real estate market policies, it can not only revitalize regional inventory, but also achieve the purpose of 'housing without speculation' in the entire city." Therefore, this will be the main strategy for stabilizing the property market in some first-tier and strong second-tier cities in the future. Lu Qilin said. (End)