The supply of ordinary commercial residential land in many cities has declined significantly: some inventory backlogs are serious, and housing enterprises are cautious in acquiring land

The Paper reporter Liu Chang

On April 4, according to the information released by the China Land Market Network, Hefei City, Anhui Province released the 13 state-owned construction land supply plan (municipal level). The total supply plan of state-owned construction land at the municipal level in Hefei in 2023 is 2023.2146 hectares. Among them, the supply of land for commercial services is planned to be 67 hectares, accounting for 60.2% of the total planned total, a decrease of 8.2022% compared with the actual supply in 29; The residential land supply plan is 91 hectares, accounting for 540.25% of the total planned amount, an increase of 16.16% year-on-year, and 11 hectares of 540 hectares are commercial housing land, accounting for 400.74% of the residential land supply plan; This represents a decrease of about 07.2022% compared to 433.33 hectares in 7.

Previously, nearly 50 key cities have announced land supply plans for 2023. The supply area of commercial housing land in many key cities has been greatly reduced.

The supply of urban commercial residential land fell by nearly 70% at most

Taking Chongqing as an example, in 2023, Chongqing plans to supply 14762,1162 hectares of state-owned construction land, and Chongqing plans to supply 7,8 hectares of residential land, accounting for 2243.48% of the total planned supply of state-owned construction land this year, a decrease of 19.1162% compared with the planned supply of 1155,7 hectares of residential land last year. Among the 38,95 hectares, <>,<> hectares of commercial residential land and <> hectares of rental residential land were used, compared with last year, the planned supply of commercial residential land in Chongqing this year decreased by <>.<>%.

According to the 2023 supply plan announced by Nanning, the total amount of land supplied in the city this year is about 35047,2600 mu, of which 2022,4200 mu of ordinary commercial residential land is planned to be supplied, a decrease of about 38% from 3,<> mu in <>, and the planned transfer area has hit a new low in nearly three years.

According to the CRA report, according to the data of the 15 first- and second-tier cities that have announced land supply plans, the land used for real estate development will be significantly reduced in 2023, especially the scale of leased land (including guaranteed rental housing and market-oriented leasing) is only 419 hectares, a year-on-year decrease of 51%; Secondly, the supply of ordinary commercial residential land also decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 19%; Only the use of affordable residential land increased slightly, with an increase of 5%, and the supply of first- and second-tier affordable housing continued unabated.

Judging from the changes in the planned supply of ordinary commercial housing in typical cities in 2023 compared with 2022, the supply of ordinary commercial housing in most cities has declined to varying degrees compared with 2022. Among them, Changchun, which has a large dechemical pressure, has the most significant decrease, with a decrease of nearly <>%.

According to Clarion data, as of the end of 2022, the denaturalization cycle of commercial housing in Changchun exceeded 35 months, and the pressure of denaturalization was huge. Affected by this, Changchun significantly reduced the residential land supply plan in 2023, and the planned supply of ordinary commercial residential land in 2023 was only 187 hectares, a decrease of 2022% compared with 66. Similarly, Chongqing, Hohhot, Nanning, etc., all of which have a denaturalization cycle of more than 18 months, and the planned supply of ordinary commercial residential land in 2023 will decline by more than 38% year-on-year.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that in the past two years, affected by the deep adjustment of the real estate market, the willingness of enterprises to acquire land and the intensity of land acquisition have decreased significantly, and the national land market has fallen into a downturn, according to the data of the Middle Index, in 2022, the scale of supply and demand of residential land in the country will decline by more than <>% year-on-year.

Chen Wenjing further said that since 2023, various localities have adjusted their land supply plans according to their own market characteristics, specifically, except for the increase in the scale of land supply plans in some hot spots in first- and second-tier cities, the planned amount of land supply in most cities has been revised down compared with 2022, while cities with significantly reduced land supply plans have been greatly affected by factors such as large inventory in the real estate market, insufficient sustainability of the recovery of the real estate sales market, and low completion rate of land supply plans in 2022, such as Changchun and Chongqing. Medium and long-term inventories are high, and the completion rate of land supply plans in 2022 is less than 2023%, and the planned volume of land supply in 2022 will decrease by more than <>% compared with <>.

"Promote more existing projects to accelerate their entry into the market"

In December last year, the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Notice on Further Standardizing the Disclosure of Information on the Supply of Residential Land, which mentioned that cities with a long period of commercial housing dematerialization, a high land auction rate, and obvious lack of market demand should control the scale of supply, among which cities that have supplied uncompleted residential land area more than five times the average completed transaction volume in the past three years should strictly reduce the scale of the plan until the land supply is suspended. A system for publishing the list of land plots to be transferred will be established, and the time period for the proposed transfer corresponding to each detailed list will not be less than 12 months in principle, giving market entities sufficient time to anticipate predictions; At the same time, the plots in the detailed list can be sold in batches.

In January this year, at the National Natural Resources Work Conference, Minister of Natural Resources Wang Guanghua said that it is necessary to coordinate and optimize the allocation of land plan indicators during the 1th Five-Year Plan period, appropriately increase the 2023 indicators, support the implementation of major projects in the <>th Five-Year Plan as soon as possible, support the construction of infrastructure such as transportation, energy, water conservancy and information, and support the construction of modern infrastructure systems in urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas.

Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that the reduction in the supply of homesteads in many places this year is in line with the national land supply plan.

Guan Rongxue continued to point out that the reduction in the supply of residential land is also related to the slower repair of the property market, considering that the backlog of land inventory in some cities is more serious, housing enterprises are more cautious in acquiring land, and various localities have formulated plans to avoid the situation of oversupply and thus affect the stable development of the property market; In addition, all localities have given priority to land for major infrastructure, industrial services and other projects to support the implementation of major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan as soon as possible.

From the perspective of impact, it is expected that the contraction of residential land supply will increase the competition intensity of real estate enterprises to acquire land to a certain extent, avoid serious land auctions, ensure the efficient use of land resources, and maintain a certain market heat; In addition, it will also promote more existing projects to accelerate their entry into the market.

In Zhengzhou, where the property market is gradually picking up, according to the real estate market sales released by the Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration this year, the approved pre-sale area of commercial housing is far less than the sales area. In January, the pre-sale area of commercial housing was approved to be 1,46 square meters; 31,4920 sets of commercial residential sales were sold with a sales area of 62,18 square meters and an average sales price of 11879,2 yuan / square meter. In February, Zhengzhou approved the pre-sale area of 14,4 square meters; the sales of 12583,135 sets of commercial residences with a sales area of 71,12029,<> square meters and an average sales price of <>,<> yuan / square meter.

Chen Wenjing also holds the same view and believes that at present, housing enterprises generally adopt the strategy of "fixed investment by sales", and deterministic sales have become one of the primary criteria for real estate enterprises to acquire land, and local governments reducing land supply can alleviate the pressure of market oversupply to a certain extent, thereby further stabilizing market expectations.

The CRA report shows that the scale of residential land supply in core cities such as Shanghai and Suzhou is relatively stable, the speed of commercial housing in these cities is better, the inventory pressure is relatively light, and the local self-regulation bureau has also remained relatively stable in the scale of land supply. For example, Shanghai, as of the end of 2022, its denaturalization cycle is only 6.9 months, and the planned supply of ordinary commercial residential land in 2023 is 505 hectares, which is basically the same as in 2022. Guangzhou's residential land supply plan has maintained growth for five consecutive years, and the supply plan for ordinary residential land in 2023 will increase by 26% year-on-year. The Guangzhou Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources also stated that sufficient supply of residential land is a strong guarantee for achieving "stable land prices, stable housing prices and stable expectations".

According to the 1 Blue Book of Commercial Land Supply released by the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources in January this year, Guangzhou will supply 2023,2022.2882 hectares of construction land in 06, exceeding the 2505,115-hectare plan task formulated at the beginning of the year, and the implementation rate of the supply plan is 09.751%. It is planned to supply 690 hectares of residential land for the whole year, and the actual supply is 43.<> hectares.

Kerry pointed out that at a time when the scale of the industry is declining and inventory pressure continues to be high, most key cities have reduced the supply of homesteads in land supply plans, while first- and second-tier cities have slightly increased the supply of residential land with guaranteed property rights. In addition, from the perspective of cities that have been concentrated on land supply, most of the first round of centralized land supply adopts the strategy of improving quality and shrinking land, the scale is smaller than the first round last year, and the quality has been significantly improved, and high-quality land plots in hot cities such as Shenzhen, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo and Hefei are still highly sought after, and many land plots in these cities have peaked in transactions, with the help of this, the premium rate rose to 3.7% in March, hitting a new high since August 3.