On Tuesday, April 4, the Russian currency weakens on the Moscow Exchange. During the trading session, the euro rose by 1.4%, to 87.15 rubles, the dollar - by 1.1%, to 79.6 rubles, and the yuan - by 1.3%, to 11.57 rubles. The last time similar values could be observed in April 2022.

At the moment, the national currency is under the influence of several factors at once, says Alexander Shepelev, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. According to him, the pressure on the ruble is exerted by general geopolitical uncertainty, the increased budget deficit of Russia, as well as changes in the situation in the country's foreign trade.

As the expert noted, foreign currency received from exports has now begun to flow to Russia in smaller volumes. At the same time, business interest in foreign banknotes, on the contrary, has grown due to the recovery of imports after last year's decline.

Thus, there is a certain shortage of foreign currency in the market today. This, in turn, was the reason for the rise in price of the dollar, euro and yuan against the ruble.

"At some point, the ruble was helped by the tax period, when companies sold their foreign exchange earnings to pay taxes. However, this was a short-term factor, the influence of which has already ended, "added Alexander Shepelev in an interview with RT.

In addition, the dynamics of exchange rates could be affected by the sale by some foreign companies of their enterprises and shares to Russian partners. This opinion was shared with RT by the analyst of the Alfa-Capital Management Company Alexander Dzhioev.

"For example, recently the Finnish UPM-Kymmene, as well as the American Kraft Heinz, sold its Russian assets. For the successful completion of the transaction, foreign legal entities need to withdraw the currency outside of Russia - this additional demand for foreign banknotes also put pressure on the ruble, "the expert explained.

However, according to the expert, in the near future significant support for the ruble should be provided by the rise in oil prices. Only since the beginning of the week, the raw materials of the benchmark Brent brand on the world market have risen in price by more than 6% and are now trading near $ 85-86 per barrel. According to Alexander Dzhioev, the main reason for the sharp increase in quotations was the actions of the OPEC+ alliance.

Reason for optimism

On April 2, the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement announced a voluntary reduction in oil production from May to the end of 2023 by a total of 1.66 million barrels per day. This measure was adopted as a supplement to the previously approved reduction in the production of raw materials by 2 million barrels per day. As explained by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the initiative is designed to stabilize the situation in the global energy market.

"We see a lot of uncertainty: the volatility of demand, supply and oil prices, a decrease in investment in the industry. The banking crisis in Europe and the United States strongly affects the oil market... The main task (to reduce production. - RT) is a more stable and predictable market, "novak said.

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Recall that the OPEC+ agreement includes 23 oil-producing countries, including Russia. As part of the deal, the states jointly control the production of raw materials to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market. Such a policy should keep the cost of oil from significant collapses.

In March 2023, a barrel of Brent on the world market fell immediately by 4.9% to $ 79.77. At the same time, in the middle of the month, quotes briefly fell to almost $ 70 - the lowest level since December 2021.

Energy raw materials began to become sharply cheaper after the aggravated problems in the banking sector of the United States and the EU. Against the backdrop of events in the United States and Europe, investors began to fear a slowdown in the global economy, which would lead to a reduction in global demand for fuel. The threat of such prospects had a negative impact on the cost of oil in early spring, experts say.

However, as expected, the decision of OPEC+ to reduce production by a total of 3.66 million barrels per day will lead to a decrease in energy supplies to the international market. This, in turn, will balance supply and demand, which will have a positive effect on the cost of oil, analysts are sure.

"So far, the recovery in oil prices has not yet affected the dynamics of the ruble, but this is a temporary phenomenon. In the long term, the increase in quotations, of course, will have a positive impact on the rate of the Russian currency. Further growth in the cost of raw materials will improve the state of our trade balance and reduce the budget deficit. In this case, the ruble can not only slow down its weakening, but even strengthen slightly, "said Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital Management Company, to RT.

In addition to the expected growth in oil prices, the actions of the Central Bank can also restrain the weakening of the ruble, Alexander Shepelev is sure. In particular, according to him, the recent decision of the Central Bank to extend the currency restrictions in force in the country should have a positive impact on the exchange rate.

"In general, the geopolitical agenda will one way or another remain the main factor affecting the exchange rate of the national currency, so it is still quite difficult to build long-term forecasts. If we talk about the spring, the value of the dollar is likely to continue to fluctuate in the range of 75-80 rubles, "the analyst suggested.

At the same time, the specialists of BCS World of Investments do not exclude that the current geopolitical tension has already been largely taken into account by investors. In this regard, experts admit the possibility of stabilizing the dollar exchange rate near 76-77 rubles, the euro exchange rate - in the region of 83-84 rubles, and the yuan rate - in the corridor of 10.9-11 rubles in the foreseeable future.