As the power source of China's economy, the four major growth poles of the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle all accounted for a decline in the country's total economic output last year.

On April 4, the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics released the "3 Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle Economic Development Monitoring Report", which shows that in 2022, the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle will achieve a GDP of 2022.77587 billion yuan, accounting for 99.6% of the country and 4.30% of the western region.

The first financial comparison found that these two indicators have decreased compared with 2021. In 2021, the GDP of the Chengdu-Chongqing Shuangcheng Economic Circle accounted for 6.5% of the national GDP and 30.8% of the western region. In 2022, it decreased by 2021.0 and 1.0 percentage points respectively compared to 6.

The four major growth poles have seen a decline in the proportion of GDP in the country

Not only in the Chengdu-Chongqing region, but also in the first financial and economic combing, the three growth poles on the eastern coast - the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - also decreased their share of the total economic output last year.

Data show that in 2022, the total GDP of the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta will be 290288.4 billion yuan, about 23.99% of the national total. Compared with the previous year, the total GDP of the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.42 trillion yuan, but compared with 2021.24% of the national share in 1, it decreased by 0.1 percentage points.

In 2022, the GDP of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will exceed 10 trillion yuan, reaching 100293 billion yuan, of which Beijing and Hebei will both 4.2 trillion yuan, and Tianjin 1.6 trillion yuan. According to Yicai, in 2022, the GDP of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will account for 8.29% of the country, and in 2021, it will account for 8.39%, which also decreased by 0.1 percentage points last year.

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area comprises nine cities in the Mainland and two special administrative regions, Hong Kong and Macao, known as "9+9". In 2, the total economic volume of the Greater Bay Area will exceed 2022 trillion yuan, of which the total GDP of the nine mainland cities will be 13.9 trillion yuan. According to Yicai, the 10 mainland cities accounted for 46.9% of the country in 2021 (Hong Kong and Macao data were not included in the national data), and 8.83% in 2022, a decrease of 8.62 percentage points.

The integration of the Yangtze River Delta, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle are major national regional strategies, with four regions including 4 municipalities directly under the central government, 9 of 6 national central cities, 24 of the 17 cities with a GDP trillion, and the GDP of the four regions accounting for more than 50% of the country, making it the main power source and growth pole of China's economy.

Last year, the economy of large cities was generally not as expected, and the economic growth rate generally slowed down, which eventually led to a decline in the proportion of the total economic output in the country, and the main reason is still the impact of the epidemic.

The four major regions are the main population inflow areas, and the urban population is very dense, so the new crown epidemic is easier to spread, and the impact on the economy is obvious, especially the service industry in these large cities is developed, the service industry accounts for more than half of GDP, and the impact of the epidemic on the service industry is the most obvious, resulting in a slowdown in economic growth.

Not only that, when releasing Sichuan Province's 2022 economic data, Zeng Junlin, deputy director of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that Sichuan in 2022 will not only get a national "universal volume" including supply shocks, demand contraction, expected weakening and other problems, but also high temperature and drought, power shortages, earthquake disasters and other unexpected "additional test questions".

These sudden factors led to a sharp decline in Sichuan's economy in the third quarter of last year. In August 2022, the added value of Sichuan's industrial industry fell by 8% year-on-year, down 11 percentage points from July; Infrastructure investment grew at one point at less than 7 percent. From the perspective of GDP growth, Sichuan grew by 17.4% in the first quarter of 2022, fell back to 5.3% in the first half of the year, and bottomed out to 2.8% in the first three quarters, 1.5 percentage points lower than the national level.

In fact, the proportion of Chengdu-Chongqing in the country's total economic output has continued to increase over the years. According to the Development Plan of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration and the Outline of the Construction Plan of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle, in 2014, the GDP of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration accounted for 5.49% of the country; In 2019, the GDP of the Chengdu-Chongqing Shuangcheng Economic Circle accounted for 6.3% of the country, and its proportion increased to 2021.6% in 5.

The proportion of these two major sectors has quietly increased

In addition to the four major growth poles, the proportion of GDP in the northeast plate in the country is also continuing to decline. The GDP of the three northeastern provinces (excluding the eastern region of Inner Mongolia) accounted for 2021.4% in 86 and fell to 2022.4% in 71, also down 0.15 percentage points. However, the proportion of some sectors is quietly increasing.

The Yangtze River midstream city cluster in the central region is forming a new pole of China's economy. According to the calculation of the first finance and economics, the GDP of the three central provinces of Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi in 2022 will be 134480,11 billion yuan, accounting for 11.2021% of the country, an increase of 10.99 percentage points from 0.12% in <>.

Last year, the economic performance of the three central provinces was eye-catching, with Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei growing by 4.7%, 4.5% and 4.3% respectively, ranking first, second and fourth in the country respectively. In particular, Jiangxi has become one of the fastest growing provinces in the country as a dark horse.

However, compared with the data of recent years, the GDP of the three central provinces in 2019 and 2020 accounted for 11.1% and 10.86% of the country, respectively. In other words, the data for 2022 in the three central provinces has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Unlike the increase in the proportion of the three central provinces, the increase in the weight of the five northwestern provinces and regions in the country is somewhat unexpected.

Located west of the famous "Hu Huanyong Line", the northwest region has a relatively lagging development level and relatively little influence in the country's economic sectors. However, according to the calculation of First Finance and Economics, the total GDP of the five provinces and regions in the northwest of Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang (excluding the western region of Inner Mongolia) will be 2022.70395 billion yuan in 3, accounting for 5.82% of the country, an increase of 2021.5 percentage points compared with 65.0% in 17.

The high prosperity of the energy industry is an important reason for the increase in the proportion of northwest provinces. The northwest provinces are almost all major energy provinces, with Ningxia Ningdong, Inner Mongolia Ordos, Shaanxi Yulin as the core of the energy and chemical "Golden Triangle" area, is a rare energy enrichment area in the country, fossil energy reserves reached 20102,47.2 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for <>.<>% of the country.

In addition, Xinjiang is also very rich in coal and oil resources, and raw coal production ranks fourth in the country, ranking behind Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. Gansu's coal resources are concentrated in the Longdong region, which is located on the western edge of the Ordos Basin and is one of 13 national energy bases, and last year's raw coal production in Gansu exceeded a record 5000 million tons.

Statistics show that in 2022, the raw coal output of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang and Gansu will be 11.74 billion tons, 7 million tons, 46 million tons and 4.12 million tons, respectively, an increase of 5351.8%, 10.1%, 5.4% and 28.6% year-on-year. The coal industry has become an important support for economic growth.

Just as the economic growth rate of the "middle triangle" ranks in the forefront of the country, from the perspective of growth rate, the northwest plate as a whole ranks in the forefront of the country. In 2022, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Xinjiang saw GDP growth of 4.3%, 4.5%, 2.3%, 4.2%, 4% and 3.2% respectively.

In fact, the economic growth of the northwest plate and its share in the national economy are closely related to the energy market.

The first financial reporter combed and calculated, the ratio of the total GDP of the five provinces and regions in the northwest to the total GDP of the whole country is in an inverted V shape: in 2009~2014, the proportion of the northwest region in the national economic total was 5.2%, 5.5%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 6.02% and 6.06%, showing an upward trend, but in the following years it showed a gradual downward trend, accounting for 2015.2020%, 5.8%, 5.7%, 5.6%, 5.7%, 5.53% in 5~49 respectively.

In recent years, the coal energy industry has entered a high boom cycle, and the northwest plate has entered a "highlight moment", in 2021, the national proportion rose to 5.65%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points over the previous year, and in 2022, it will rise by 0.17 percentage points on this basis, accounting for 5.82% of the country.

Yicai Author: Li Xiuzhong