China News Network, March 3 (Zhongxin Finance Ge Cheng) At 31 o'clock on March 3, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. Following the previous round of refined oil prices falling, the agency expects that the price of this round of refined oil products may continue to fall, and refined oil prices are expected to usher in "two consecutive declines".
Infographic: Gas stations. Photo by Ge Cheng of Zhongxin Finance
Yang Xia, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information refined oil products, believes that since this cycle, the international crude oil market has rebounded from a relatively low level.
From a macro perspective, the main bearish comes from the risk of Silicon Valley banks in the United States, and this risk spills over to Europe, and the market is worried about the risk of recession after tightening monetary liquidity, resulting in a break in oil prices.
From a fundamental point of view, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) continued to implement production cuts, the tightening of the supply side supported the oil market, and China's demand expectations remained good, driving a moderate rebound in oil prices.
Yang Xia analyzed, "Affected by this, the domestic reference crude oil change rate from the negative value at the beginning of the cycle continues to rise, although the downward adjustment has narrowed, but the overall is always in the negative range, this round of refined oil retail price 'two consecutive declines' into a high probability event." ”
According to agency estimates, as of March 3, the ninth working day of the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 30.73 US dollars per barrel, the change rate is -20.6%, and it is expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel will be reduced by about 96 yuan per ton, equivalent to 340.0-27.0 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel. After the adjustment of oil prices, No. 29 gasoline in some areas is expected to return to the "95 yuan era".
Bi Mingxin, an analyst at Jinlianchuang refined oil products, believes that the probability of the downward round of domestic refined oil prices is reduced. "In the future, international crude oil may maintain a volatile trend, the rate of change is running negatively, and the news is difficult to find support."
Yang Xia believes that "in the later stage, pay attention to the strength of the moderate recovery after the stabilization of international oil prices, and the mainstream fluctuation range of US crude oil is between 70-75 US dollars / barrel." (End)