Zhongxin Jingwei, March 3 (Fu Jianqing) At 31 o'clock on the 31st, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. The agency expects that domestic refined oil prices will fall for the third time this year.

In this round of pricing cycle, the volatility of international crude oil intensified, and the futures market as a whole fell first and then rose. As of the early morning of the 30th Beijing time, WTI May crude oil futures closed at $5.72 / barrel, and Brent May crude oil futures closed at $97.5 / barrel.

Zhongxin Jingwei combed and found that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone six rounds of adjustment, showing a pattern of "two rises, two falls and two strandings", with gasoline prices rising by 155 yuan / ton and diesel prices by 150 yuan / ton. If this price reduction is implemented, domestic refined oil prices will fall for the third time this year.

OPEC previously cut its global crude oil demand forecast for 2023. In its monthly oil report, OPEC noted that the global oil market could experience a slight oversupply in the next quarter due to sluggish seasonal demand, and lowered its global crude oil demand forecast for 2023 by an average of 20,<> barrels per day.

According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the ninth working day of this round, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 73.20 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of -6.96%, and the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 340 yuan / ton.

Zhuochuang information estimates that as of the ninth working day of this round, the reference crude oil change rate is -7.95%, and it is expected that gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 340 yuan / ton, which is converted into a price increase, and 92# gasoline and 0# diesel will be reduced by 0.27 and 0.29 yuan respectively. After the implementation of the downward adjustment policy, consumers' travel costs have been reduced to a certain extent, taking a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a tank of 92# gasoline will cost about 13.5 yuan less than before.

For the reasons for the decline in oil prices, Zhuochuang Information believes that from a macro point of view, the main bearish comes from the risk of Silicon Valley banks in the United States, and the risk spills over to Europe, and the market is worried about the risk of recession after the tightening of monetary liquidity, resulting in a break in oil prices; From a fundamental point of view, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ continue to implement production cuts, the tightening of the supply side provides support for the oil market, and China's demand expectations remain good, driving a moderate rebound in oil prices. Affected by this, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has continued to rise from the negative depth at the beginning of the cycle, although the downward adjustment has narrowed, but the overall has always been in the negative range.

According to the "ten working days" principle, the next round of retail price adjustment of refined oil products will be at 4:17 on April 24.

For the future market, GF Futures Research Report pointed out that on the supply side, from the OPEC+ statement, the expectation of maintaining its policy of stabilizing raw production remains unchanged for the time being, if the oil price falls below $70 / barrel in the later financial risk, pay attention to the possibility of further production reduction. Russia announced a 50/day cut to June, and may be fulfilled in the near future, and it is expected that the production reduction plan will be achieved by reducing refinery operations and exports of refined oil, and the reduction in Russian oil production will support the low elasticity of crude oil supply. Overall, short-term crude oil fundamentals are still supported, macro sentiment is temporarily stable, it is expected that the space below oil prices may be limited, but the short-term demand increment is limited, and oil distribution may maintain a range of 6-70 US dollars / barrel. In the medium and long term, the expectation of improvement in downstream demand is fulfilled, and the crude oil price center is expected to move upward.

Jinlianchuang also believes that international crude oil may maintain a volatile trend, and the rate of change runs negatively. Operators are more cautious about spending on the sidelines, rarely entering the market to buy, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and caution is required when entering the market.) )

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