Zhongxin Jingwei, March 3 (Dong Xiangyi) Today (27th), the central bank's RRR reduction officially landed, and it is expected to release 27 billion yuan of medium and long-term funds.
The RRR reduction is expected to release 6000 billion yuan of medium and long-term funds
According to the central bank's announcement on the 17th, in order to promote the effective improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the economy, play a good macro policy combination, improve the level of serving the real economy, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it was decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2023.3 percentage points on March 27, 0. After this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions is about 25.7%.
According to the statistics of Guojin Securities, the RRR reduction is expected to release 6000 billion yuan of medium and long-term funds, superimposed on the mid-month MLF over-renewal of 2810 billion yuan, and a total of nearly 3 billion yuan of medium and long-term funds will be invested in March.
Zhou Maohua, macro researcher of the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, said in an interview with the media that the central bank intends to release low-cost, long-term liquidity to the banking system through this comprehensive RRR reduction, guide financial institutions to increase support for weak links in the real economy and key emerging areas, optimize the credit structure, and accelerate the recovery of consumption and domestic demand.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that under the current pressure on the cost of liabilities in the banking industry and the net interest margin continues to narrow to a historical low, the central bank's timely RRR reduction will help to better stimulate the demand for real financing, stabilize the economy, reduce costs, effectively alleviate bank liabilities and operating pressure, and enhance operational stability and anti-risk ability.
How to go in the stock market and bond market? Institution: RRR reduction supports A-shares to stabilize and rise
The RRR reduction means that the market is more liquid, which is undoubtedly good for the stock and bond markets.
Sichuan Finance Securities pointed out that it is expected that after the RRR reduction landed, the stock and bond markets will usher in a favorable situation, and can focus on the banking and real estate sectors. For the stock market, the RRR reduction provides credit support for all walks of life, stimulates economic growth, and the economic fundamentals are good, which boosts the stock market, and the RRR reduction also boosts investor confidence. For the bond market, the RRR reduction released liquid funds, injected liquidity into the interbank market, reduced the cost of funds price, enhanced the expectation of wide credit, and smoothed out the volatility of the bond market some time ago.
Zhang Xia, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities, believes that after the outbreak of risk events including Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, the RRR reduction is conducive to boosting market confidence, and it is expected that the liquidity released is expected to help financing gradually stabilize and recover, supporting the stability and upward movement of A-shares.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told Zhongxin Jingwei, "This RRR reduction will definitely have certain benefits for home buyers, and the mortgage interest rate of most loan buyers will continue to decrease." ”
Zhang Dawei further pointed out that on the whole, the current real estate market needs buyers to restore confidence, and the market must start from the first and second lines to stabilize, the current January and February market has a slight stabilization, the market expects more easing policies. In particular, first-tier cities need more policies to stabilize the property market.
"RRR reduction can definitely reduce credit costs, but targeted policies need to be improved for first-tier cities, and the entire Chinese real estate market must be stable in first-tier cities, especially the market for improving demand support policies is expected to truly stabilize." Zhang Dawei said.
How likely is it that the RRR rate cut will be cut in the future?
Guohai Securities believes that there is still room for subsequent RRR reductions, but the magnitude may be relatively cautious. On the one hand, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions after this RRR reduction is about 7.6%, which is still 5.2 percentage points away from the "hidden lower limit" of 6%, and 1999.6 percentage points away from the "lowest limit" of 1% of China's statutory deposit reserve ratio in 6. Since 2018, the PBOC has lowered the RRR 15 times, reducing the average statutory reserve requirement ratio from 14.9% to 7.6%, and the PBOC has been more cautious in using the remaining space in the past two years. On the other hand, RRR reduction is one of the effective ways to release long-term liquidity to support the real economy, and considering that there is still a liquidity gap during the year, we expect that it is still possible to continue to cut the RRR by 0.25 percentage points.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist and director of Ping An Securities, believes that the next RRR cut is more likely to occur at the liquidity shortage node in the middle of the year and the peak of MLF maturity. In particular, the amount of MLF maturities from August to December is more than 8 billion yuan, and further RRR reductions are worth looking forward to.
"The landing of the RRR cut does not mean that monetary policy will be further adjusted in the direction of easing, and the possibility of implementing a policy interest rate cut in the short term is very small." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that interest rate cuts are often launched at the time of coping with major shocks and supporting economic operation, playing the role of "sending charcoal in the snow"; After the economy enters the process of recovery, whether it is the monetary policy operation in China's history or the policy practice of the monetary authorities of other countries, it is rare to "icing on the cake" by implementing interest rate cuts to help the economy rise faster. Therefore, against the backdrop of the economic recovery momentum in the first quarter, the need to cut the policy rate is not high. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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