Beijing, March 3 (ZXS) -- Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing, said at the 25 annual meeting of the China Development High-level Forum in Beijing on the 25th that in recent times, some industries seem to have shown signs of "peacocks flying southeast" and have shifted to Southeast Asia and other regions. This phenomenon is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run.
In Huang Qifan's view, the above-mentioned phenomenon of "peacocks flying southeast" is caused by multiple factors. First, the US trade war with China, many industries that were originally "in China, for the United States" have shifted to a certain extent, in order to obtain certification of origin and avoid tariff barriers. Second, the comprehensive factor cost of some Southeast Asian countries does have certain comparative advantages in the short term. Third, some countries in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam, have joined many free trade agreements and adopted many tax incentives that are stronger than China. Fourth, after the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) came into effect, using the cumulative rules of origin, some enterprises can enter the Chinese mainland market without tariffs even if they move to Southeast Asia, that is, "in Southeast Asia, for China".
But he also believes that from many aspects, the above phenomenon is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run. First, many industries transferred out are Chinese private enterprises, and the layout has been appropriately adjusted for the consideration of avoiding tariff barriers.
Second, most of the enterprises currently transferred out are mainly low-value-added products that are sensitive to tariff barriers, such as clothing, shoes and hats, although there are some electronic components, mostly assembly and assembly. This is also needed to adapt to the stage of development of Southeast Asian countries. For products with certain scientific and technological content, such as mechanical and electrical products exported to China, tariff barriers will not have a big impact. Exports to the United States have not fallen but risen in recent years.
Third, with the economic growth of these countries in Southeast Asia, local demand will also drive the basic logic of "selling real estate", so some multinational companies in Southeast Asia to carry out a reasonable layout, naturally will also drive the original supporting enterprises in China to follow out.
Fourth, the destination of RCEP industrial transfer is basically RCEP member countries. With the implementation of RCEP, China and RCEP countries will form an increasingly close industrial chain and supply chain connection, and in the future, there will be a variety of production and marketing models such as "in China, for China", "in China, for RCEP", "in RCEP, for the world". At that time, China's large market superimposed RCEP large market, China's dual circulation superimposed RCEP large cycle, will profoundly change the world industrial chain supply chain layout.
Fifth, in response to the current adjustment of the global industrial chain and supply chain, it is more important to grasp the initiative of the industrial chain layout. It is necessary to actively carry out forward-looking layout and take the initiative to form a number of globally competitive industrial chain clusters around these key industries. (End)