, March 3 -- The website of the Ministry of Transport released the development of the waterway transportation market in 21 and the market outlook for 21 on the 2022st.

2022. Development of the waterway transportation market in <>

In 2022, China will coordinate the overall situation at home and abroad, coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, coordinate development and security, increase macro-control efforts, cope with the impact of unexpected factors, and steadily improve the quality of development, driving the overall stable and good development of China's waterway transportation market, and different market segments show different characteristics.

(1) The domestic coastal shipping market is generally stable.

1. Dry bulk transportation market: the market operation is generally stable, and freight rates fluctuate downward.

By the end of 2022, the country had a total of 2427,7982 coastal interprovincial dry bulk carriers of more than 4,6 tons, with 5.<> million dwt, an increase of <>.<>% year-on-year.

In 2022, the coastal bulk cargo transportation market is generally stable. Around the Spring Festival, the warm winter temperature is high, industrial and residential electricity consumption is lower than expected, the supply and demand of the transportation market are weak, and the freight rate fluctuates at a low level. Since late February, a series of domestic price stabilization and supply policies have been introduced, coal supply has stabilized, coal prices have remained in a reasonable range, and freight rates have jumped short-term, but with the rapid rise in international energy prices, coastal bulk cargo demand has fallen, and market freight rates have returned to the downward channel from March to April. Since May, transportation demand has gradually rebounded, with the arrival of summer, ultra-high temperature weather once boosted civil electricity demand, but under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the long-term guarantee and supply agreement has been solidly implemented, downstream coal inventories have remained in a good range for a long time, and coastal freight rates have generally been relatively flat after August. The annual average of China's coastal (bulk) composite freight index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 2.3 points, down 4.5% from last year. The highest value of the index for the year was 8.1124 points on March 52, down 13.5% from last year's high.

2. Liquid dangerous goods transportation market: transportation demand is generally stable, and capacity supply is relatively stable.

By the end of 2022, the country had a total of 1194,1142 coastal interprovincial transport tankers with 2.2 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.<>% in tonnage.

In terms of crude oil transportation, domestic second-haul transit crude oil was affected by the surge in international oil prices, the new crown epidemic and the traditional maintenance season of refineries in the first half of the year, especially since March, and the transportation demand weakened, and in the second half of the year, as oil prices stabilized and the overall load of refineries gradually recovered, transportation demand gradually recovered, and the annual transportation volume increased; Driven by the increase in oilfield production, offshore oil transportation increased throughout the year; Due to the single route and user, the transportation volume of pipeline oil has remained stable on the whole. The annual coastal interprovincial crude oil transportation volume completed 9100 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. In terms of refined oil transportation, affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the social inventory of refined oil products rose, and the overall demand in the transportation market was weak; In the second half of the year, affected by the traditional consumption season and the wide rise in international crude oil prices, market activity increased, and transportation demand stabilized and rebounded. The annual coastal refined oil transportation volume completed about 8500 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 4.9%. Overall, in 2022, the coastal interprovincial crude oil transportation market will be stable, and the freight rate of refined oil products will first decline and then rise. The average value of the coastal interprovincial crude oil freight index was 1578 points, up 2.3% year-on-year; The average value of the coastal refined oil freight index was 1058 points, up 0.4% year-on-year.

By the end of 2022, there were 287 coastal interprovincial chemical tankers (including oil and chemical dual-use vessels) with 139.9 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. As China's chemical production and consumption are still in a period of steady growth, the market demand for coastal bulk liquid chemical tankers continues to grow, and the annual coastal interprovincial chemical transportation volume is about 4000 million tons, an increase of about 9.6% year-on-year. The freight rates of coastal interprovincial chemical tankers are generally stable, the market supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the freight rates of some routes have increased slightly.

By the end of 2022, there were 80 coastal interprovincial liquefied gas carriers with 28,8 dwt, with a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. The demand for liquefied gas ship transportation remained stable overall, with 528.0 million tons of coastal liquefied gas transported throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 06.<>%. The price level of coastal interprovincial liquefied gas carrier transportation has rebounded, and the relationship between supply and demand is generally balanced.

3. Container transportation market: capacity increased slightly, and freight rates increased year-on-year.

By the end of 2022, there were 700 container ships with more than 350 TEU in coastal interprovincial transportation, with a container capacity of 83,0 TEU, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Affected by the decline in the high freight rate of the international container shipping market, some domestic and foreign ships have been transferred from the international market to the domestic market, and the domestic market supply is relatively sufficient. The overall domestic trade container freight index throughout the year fluctuated downward, the domestic market continued to rise in demand in the first half of the year, the market freight rate maintained a strong trend, the second half of the year by the sluggish demand in the international market, the coastal container market freight rate fell, due to the end of the year China's national defense epidemic policy optimization adjustment, December coastal container freight rate picked up. In 12, the average value of Xinhua Pan Asia Shipping China's domestic trade container freight index will be 2022 points, a year-on-year increase of 1661.13%.

4. Passenger transport market: waterway passenger transport needs to be restored.

By the end of 2022, there were 22 interprovincial Ro-Ro vessels in Bohai Bay, with 32961,3156 passenger spaces and 57,51612 parking spaces, and 2778 interprovincial Ro-Ro vessels in the Qiongzhou Strait, with <>,<> passenger spaces and <>,<> parking spaces.

In 2022, the number of passengers and vehicles transported by Bohai Bay interprovincial passenger and vehicle transportation will be 212.114 million and 20.5 million units, down 12.9% and up 1187.372% year-on-year, respectively. The number of passengers and vehicles transported by passengers and vehicles in the interprovincial passenger transport in the Qiongzhou Strait was 6.3 million and 1.3 million units, down <>.<>% and <>.<>% respectively year-on-year.

(2) Inland shipping market: freight volume is stable and rising, passenger traffic needs to be restored.

In 2022, the demand for inland waterway transportation will be relatively stable overall, and the growth rate will slow down. From the perspective of market segmentation, the dry bulk transportation market is growing steadily, the supply of ship capacity is still oversupplied, and the overall freight rate is running at a low level throughout the year; The container transportation market showed a rapid growth trend, and the volume of container iron-water combined transport increased by more than <>% year-on-year; The market for the transportation of bulk liquid dangerous goods is relatively stable; The interprovincial passenger transport market was seriously affected by the epidemic, and interprovincial tourist passenger ships were suspended for most of the time, and only recovered in the third quarter.

In 2022, the provinces and cities of the Yangtze River system completed 61.7 billion tons of waterway freight transport, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; The cargo throughput of Yangtze River trunk port was 35.9 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; The passage volume of the Three Gorges Hub was 1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. For the whole year, the average value of the Yangtze River dry bulk freight price index was 1.728 points, down 4.4% year-on-year; The average value of the container freight index was 1.1012 points, up 1.1% year-on-year.

In 2022, the Pearl River system completed 13.90 billion tons of waterway freight transport, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%; Cheung Chau Hub Transit Cargo Volume was 1 million tons, up 55.2% year-on-year. For the whole year, the average value of the Pearl River Shipping Bulk Freight Index was 0 points, down 1023.3% year-on-year; The average value of the container freight index was 2 points, a year-on-year increase of 894.1%.

(3) The shipping market between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is basically stable.

In 2022, direct sea shipping between the two sides of the strait completed 4723.9 million tons of cargo, down 9.1478% year-on-year. The transportation volume of bulk cargo, liquid chemicals and liquefied gas was 360.71 million tons, 12.6 million tons and 18,4 tons, down 8.2%, down 229.8% and up 4.8% year-on-year, respectively. Container traffic reached 2022.<> million TEUs, down <>.<>% year-on-year. In <>, cross-strait passenger transport will remain suspended.

(4) International shipping market: Affected by the epidemic, the market fluctuates sharply.

1. Dry bulk transportation: demand weakens, excess capacity, freight rates decline.

In 2022, affected by the Ukraine crisis, repeated epidemics, rising inflationary pressures and other factors, the international dry bulk transportation market has generally weakened maritime demand. According to data from third-party institutions, global dry bulk shipping volume fell by 2022.2% in 7, the lowest growth rate since 2010. Capacity growth slowed further, with global dry bulk vessel capacity of 2022 million DWT by the end of 9, up 72.2021% from 2; Due to the improvement of congestion at overseas ports and the growth rate of demand at lower than the growth rate of capacity, the overall excess of dry bulk cargo capacity has led to a sharp decline in freight rates.

In 2022, the average value of the Far East Dry Bulk (FDI) Composite Index was 1522 points, down 21.5% year-on-year, the freight index was 1362.95 points, down 7.3% year-on-year, and the rental index was 1760.69 points, down 33.4% year-on-year; The average BDI of the Baltic Dry Index was 1934 points, down 34.3% year-on-year.

2. Crude oil market: transportation demand improved, and freight rates rebounded at the bottom.

According to third-party statistics, the global crude oil shipping volume in 2022 will be about 19.53 billion tons, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year. In terms of capacity, at the end of 2022, there were 5574,6 global oil tankers (more than 34,3 tons) with 5 million deadweight tons, an increase of 2.73% over the beginning of the year; Among them, VLCC was 4 million dwt, an increase of 3.2022% from the beginning of the year. The Ukraine crisis has led to a change in the flow of oil trade, with an increase in crude oil transportation miles from the US Gulf Coast, Brazil and West Africa to Europe, while higher freight rates for Suez and Afra-type ships have also led to an increase in VLCC market demand; With the increase in global oil supply risks and the impact of policies related to some countries to control oil price increases to fight inflation, VLCC tankers have benefited greatly from eastbound demand in the US Gulf Coast. In <>, the freight rate of the crude oil spot transportation market rose significantly and hit a new high in two years.

In 2022, the annual average of China's imported crude oil freight index (CTFI) was 1132,93 points, up 6.1% year-on-year. The annual average freight rate of the Saudi Arabian Stanulla to Ningbo (CT12) route in China was 66.96 US dollars / ton, an increase of 8.<>% year-on-year.

3. Container market: demand has gradually declined, and freight rates have gradually returned to normal.

According to statistics from third-party institutions in December 2022, the global container ships reached 12,5690 and 2591.4 million TEU, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2022%. Under the influence of factors such as the overall decline in global container transportation demand and the continuous growth of effective capacity, international container freight rates will continue to fall from a high level in 3444. In the first quarter, due to overseas port congestion and replenishment demand, market freight rates remained strong, and the average value of China's export container freight index in the first quarter was 33.75 points, up 6.2% year-on-year, reaching 11.3587 points on February 91, a record high. Since then, as the congestion of overseas ports has eased, effective shipping capacity has continued to be released, and freight rates have fluctuated downward. Since the third quarter, import demand for major routes in Europe and the United States has been weak, while congestion at overseas ports has continued to ease, and freight rates have begun to accelerate downward.

In 2022, the annual average of China's export container freight index will be 2792.14 points, up 6.8% year-on-year.

4. International cruise ships: Due to the impact of the epidemic, cruise transportation in and out of ports in China in 2022 will continue to be suspended.

2023. Outlook for the shipping market in <>

(1) Domestic shipping market.

1. The uncertainty of coastal dry bulk cargo has increased, and freight rate fluctuations are expected to be further amplified.

In 2023, the downward pressure on the world economy will increase, and the uncertainty of demand in the international market will increase. It is expected that the overall cargo of the coastal coal transportation market is relatively balanced, and with the gradual advancement of the "dual carbon" policy, the replacement of ships may be accelerated, the difference in energy consumption between new and old ships will appear, and the acceptance of freight rates will gradually become alienated, and the fluctuation range of freight rates will be amplified.

2. The demand for coastal crude oil transportation and freight rates are expected to stabilize, and the demand for refined oil transportation market is expected to recover.

In 2023, the external uncertainty of the crude oil market will continue to strengthen, oil prices are expected to remain high, the enthusiasm of main refineries is high, the coastal crude oil transportation market is stable and improving, and the overall balance of supply and demand and stable freight rates. In terms of refined oil transportation, due to the acceleration of the transformation and upgrading of the refining and chemical industry, the accelerated release of people's travel demand, the demand for gasoline and kerosene has shown a steady recovery trend, and freight rates are expected to increase with supply and demand.

3. The demand for coastal chemical and liquefied gas transportation continues to grow, and the capacity structure is further optimized.

In 2023, driven by the commissioning of new coastal refining and chemical projects, the transportation demand for bulk liquid chemicals and liquefied gas is expected to continue to increase, but with the increasingly reasonable layout of the domestic chemical industry chain, the regional routes have increased significantly, so that the overall transportation distance of ships shows a shortening trend.

4. Coastal container freight rates will fall.

With the recovery of domestic economic growth, the continuous promotion of "scattered reform" and "land-to-water" and the development of multimodal transport, it is expected that the demand for coastal container transportation will maintain stable growth, in contrast to the slowdown in demand in the international market. It is expected that in 2023, the spillover effect of the international market on domestic coastal container transportation will be reduced, part of the shipping capacity will return to the domestic coastal market from the international market, the overall supply of coastal container ship capacity will increase, and freight rates will fall.

5. The inland waterway transportation market is expected to continue to operate stably.

In 2023, inland waterway transportation such as the Yangtze River and the Pearl River is expected to recover growth, and with the overall recovery of the domestic economy, it will provide stable support for the transportation demand of bulk commodities such as coal, ore and building materials. At the same time, the gradual recovery of production and consumption is expected to further boost container transportation demand. Tourist passenger traffic on the Yangtze River trunk line is expected to return to pre-epidemic levels.

(2) Cross-strait shipping market.

In 2023, it is expected that the volume of container, bulk cargo and bulk liquid dangerous goods transported between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will be basically the same.

(3) International shipping market.

1. The demand for dry bulk transportation market is growing at a low rate, and freight rates or low levels fluctuate.

In 2023, global dry bulk shipping volumes are expected to grow at a low rate. Among them, the shipping volume of iron ore is relatively stable, and the growth rate of coal and grain shipping volume has increased. Capacity continues to maintain a low-speed growth trend, but congestion at overseas ports may further improve, the overall market has excess capacity, and the market is cautiously optimistic. Inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and the epidemic will still bring downside risks to the global economy, and there are still certain uncertainties in the market.

2. Demand for oil tanker transportation continues to pick up, and external uncertainties may lead to increased fluctuations in freight rates.

In 2023, global demand for oil tanker transportation will continue to rebound, capacity orders and deliveries will remain at a relatively low level, and the degree of excess capacity will further decrease by 2022 percentage points compared with 3, and the average market freight rate is expected to be better than in 2022. At the same time, the global economic slowdown, the "OPEC+" production reduction policy, the geopolitical situation and new international environmental protection regulations will bring greater uncertainty to the oil tanker transportation market.

3. The container transportation market will generally show a slowdown.

Under the beginning of the slowdown in world economic growth and geopolitical influence, it is expected that the supply and demand fundamentals of the container transportation market will weaken in 2023, and the market freight rate will face downward pressure. Based on the prediction of many institutions, the growth rate of transportation capacity is higher than the growth rate of demand, and the situation of oversupply is relatively obvious, and the freight rate in the container transportation market may decline in 2023, but the decline will slow down.

4. International cruise ships: Carry out pilot resumption of international cruise transportation in a timely manner. (Zhongxin Finance)