Can Yemen dream of peace after the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal?

This is one of the main areas of confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia: Yemen has been plunged into a civil war for nearly nine years. Riyadh, at the head of a military coalition, supports the government. Tehran, for its part, is arming Houthi rebels who have taken control of a significant part of the territory, including the capital Sana'a. So what could be the consequences for Yemen of the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement announced ten days ago? © Hani Mohammed / AP Photo

Text by: Guilhem Delteil Follow

7 min

This is one of the main areas of confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia: Yemen has been plunged into a civil war for nearly nine years. Riyadh, at the head of a military coalition, supports the government. Tehran, for its part, is arming Houthi rebels who have taken control of a significant part of the territory, including the capital Sana'a. So what could be the consequences for Yemen of the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement announced ten days ago?

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The "Arab Spring" and the fall of President Ali Abdullah Saleh have awakened Yemeni divisions, which are not always healed. In 2011, the central government was already facing separatist tendencies in the south and a rebellion in the province of Sa'ada, in the north of the country. Beginning in the summer of 2014, Houthi rebels launched an offensive against the new government. Until then, they were concentrated near the border with Saudi Arabia, and managed to conquer significant parts of the territory: most of the coastline on the Red Sea and the capital Sana'a in 2015.

Saudi Arabia then established an international coalition to support the Yemeni government in the face of a rebellion led by a Shiite group and backed by Iran. The coalition is militarily engaged in Yemen, but eight years of fighting have not allowed it to repel its enemies: today, more than 60% of the Yemeni population lives in areas controlled by this movement.

De facto truce

As Ramadan approached last year, the two sides reached a truce: it lasted six months. Officially, it expired in October: the belligerents did not agree to extend it. But in reality, this truce continues: the clashes have not resumed. "All sides want a truce but the Houthis didn't want to pay the political price to extend it," said Abdul-Ghani Al Iryani, a researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, a Yemeni think tank. "Nevertheless, they respect the truce in most cases. There are some violations, especially in the city of Taiz. But in general, there is very little fighting in the rest of the country," the Yemeni political scientist continued.

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And the dialogue is not broken: negotiations are still ongoing between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, under the aegis of Oman, discreet mediator of regional crises. Over the past year, Saudi Arabia has shown a change of attitude: Yemen has become a quagmire for the kingdom from which it wishes to disengage. "There is a temptation for the Saudis to extract themselves somewhat unilaterally, even if it means leaving the government recognized by the international community and qualified as the legitimate government of Yemen a little on the sidelines," says Laurent Bonnefoy, CNRS researcher assigned to CERI and author of "Yemen, from happy Arabia to war".

Exchange of prisoners

The Iranian-Saudi agreement announced in Beijing on March 10 gives Yemen a wind of optimism. Reporting on the situation in the country to the Security Council, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen spoke last week of renewed momentum. The new regional context has allowed "a radical change in the scope and depth of the discussions," said Hans Grundberg, who called on the Yemeni government and the Houthis "to seize the opportunities" created by this rapprochement.

First notable development: on Monday, the two parties agreed on an exchange of prisoners. More than 880 detainees are expected to be released and allowed to return to their camps: 181 from the government and allied camp and 706 rebels. The exchange is scheduled to take place in three weeks. But these negotiations were the seventh of their kind and aimed to allow the implementation of an agreement already signed at the end of 2018. While waiting to see if this agreement will be respected, it is difficult to see in this announcement an effect of the rapprochement of the two major regional rivals.

« The unconditional support of the past is over »

The Iranian-Saudi agreement is also viewed with skepticism, even concern, on the part of Yemeni actors. "There is reason to recognize the victory of the Houthis," said Laurent Bonnefoy. "And this worries some Yemenis because the Houthis have an attitude that is damaging to society: they are banishing Yemen from the international community, they are developing an extremely conservative policy at home, hostile to human rights, women's rights. Some Yemenis reject it, although it must be recognized that there is another fringe of society that ideologically supports this approach carried by the Houthis. »

The internationally recognized government, in exile in Riyadh, also fears being abandoned by its Saudi ally. Saudi Arabia has already engaged in negotiations with the Houthis without him. But the rebel group is also losing significant support. "The Houthis were as surprised by the Iran-Saudi deal as all of us and this will force them to reassess their negotiating strategy," Abdul-Ghani Al Iryani said. "They are in a more delicate position; Before, they had full confidence in Iranian support, but the unconditional support of the past is over. They will have to respect limits: which is acceptable so as not to derail relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. »

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But the loss is probably more significant for the Yemeni government. "In reality, the chain of command between the Houthis and Iran is not clearly established," said Laurent Bonnefoy. "It is understood that there is logistical support, arms deliveries. But at the same time, there is a fairly clear autonomy of the Houthis. They know that time is on their side, they also know that Saudi Arabia wants to get out of it. So in reality, the Houthis have made very few concessions," says the CNRS researcher.

The role of the United Arab Emirates

Yemen's future also depends on other actors. The internationally recognized government is also facing an independence rebellion in the south of the country: the Southern Transitional Council. By taking control of Aden, the large city in the south of the country, he forced the government into exile in Saudi Arabia. And this Southern Transitional Council is supported by the United Arab Emirates. Although part of the Saudi-led military coalition, the country is also playing its own part.

Abu Dhabi has also resumed dialogue with the Islamic Republic. Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE did not break diplomatic relations with Iran, but for six years it did not have an ambassador in Tehran. Last August, both countries announced the dismissal of diplomats. But in Yemen, both support opposing sides. "The Emirates could find accommodations with the Houthis on a territorial level: say the north to the Houthis, the south to our allies," said Laurent Bonnefoy. But tensions between the two sides exist. "And if they are not expressed directly on the military level, it is nevertheless an issue that must be kept in mind," warns the researcher. Yemen remains a playground for regional powers. Any peace process involves taking into account the interests of the various actors and cannot be limited to discussions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

► Read also: Yemen: the forgotten war

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• Yemen
• Saudi Arabia
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