Wang Lixin

A crowded sales office, a sales control table covered with a "sold out" stamp, a poster with a single sale of 2000,3 sets, a preview of the cancellation of a <>-point discount... This is the bustle of the circle of friends of real estate practitioners in "Yangchun March".

Recently, many real estate projects in Beijing, Nanjing, Suzhou, Kunming and other places have "shouted" or have increased prices in disguise, canceling discounts, no longer sending parking spaces, and adjusting the average sales price online. Although the price increase letter issued by some developers to the property is not radical compared to the increase in CPI in February, in the current market environment, the blind price increase mentality of listed real estate enterprises is not advisable.

Of course, the housing market is indeed recovering. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in February, among the 2 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly built commercial homes and second-hand homes increased month-on-month in 70 and 55 cities respectively, an increase of 40 and 19 respectively from the previous month. According to the China Securities Investment Research Report, the sales growth rate of TOP27, TOP20 and TOP50 real estate enterprises in February was 100%, 2% and 134% respectively.

The logic behind the price increase of many real estate projects is also based on the recovery of the property market, but this does not mean that the real estate market has entered a "comprehensive upward" channel. The increase in real estate transaction activity in some core first- and second-tier cities is mainly due to the continuous optimization of policies such as lowering mortgage interest rates and reducing the down payment ratio, and the positive signals released at that time are gradually transmitted to the market and converted into actual transaction volume at this time. There is another phenomenon that deserves long-term attention, most buyers in third- and fourth-tier cities are still in a wait-and-see mood, and the local market has not yet come out of the "sideways" stage.

Based on this, the author believes that the current property market is generally stable, but the structural characteristics are obvious. "One room is difficult to find" and "rarely asked" real estate is present, and partial recovery does not mean a full recovery. More importantly, the concept of "housing is not speculation" has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the sales of commercial housing in 2022 will fall by more than 26% year-on-year, the era of unilateral bullish house prices has long been over, the growth rate of the industry has slowed down significantly, and buyers are becoming more rational.

In such a light market, there is a phenomenon of "strong sales", and blindly following the trend of price increases by housing enterprises is not a good medicine for solving difficulties, nor is it a long-term solution for development. On the contrary, the rush to raise prices may miss the optimal dematerialization window, causing the company's cash return ability to be frustrated again and passive. At this time, real estate companies should respond calmly, and even need to be vigilant against the pain that may be caused by stepping on the wrong sales node.

First, there is still uncertainty in the market. On the one hand, it remains to be seen whether the release of accumulated demand can be sustained. On the other hand, against the backdrop of long-term wait-and-see sentiment and real estate market correction, buyers' confidence has not fully recovered. At present, the real transaction force comes from cost-effective projects, and price is still a key factor that touches the sensitive nerves of buyers, and price increases may scare off some buyers. In addition, the land market at the investment end has not fully recovered, in the first two months of this year, on the list of the top ten real estate enterprises in the country, state-owned central enterprises such as China Resources Land, Yuexiu Real Estate, and C&D Real Estate occupied seven seats, and the willingness of private enterprises to acquire land was still sluggish.

Second, the drawdown continues. For housing enterprises, the peak of debt repayment has not yet passed, and there is still a risk of default if the hematopoietic capacity is not restored as soon as possible. The author suggests that housing enterprises should stabilize their mentality, flexibly adjust sales and pricing strategies according to local conditions and policies, enrich cash flow to repay debts and maintain the credit system, and do a good job in "ensuring the delivery of buildings" to stabilize customer satisfaction... It is necessary to protect the "tinder" of real estate development in the second half.

On the whole, housing enterprises should deeply realize that "stable land prices, stable housing prices, and stable expectations" is still the main keynote, and should take the return of funds as the first priority. Whether it is to establish a financial "firewall" for its own steady development, or to seize the opportunity to realize asset exchange for better projects, achieve a virtuous cycle and overtake on curves, we should focus on exploring new business models and promoting the stable development of the real estate market.