Recently, Huachuang Securities released the "non-plague or comeback, a new cycle is coming" pig industry report, which caused controversy. What is the actual situation with African swine fever? What will be the impact on the supply of live pigs this year and next?

According to the above report, grassroots research shows that the current non-epidemic epidemic in the industry is more serious, combined with the survey feedback, it is estimated that the current non-epidemic virus infection in the northern production area may reach 50%, and it is expected that the probability of a 20-30% reduction in the production of breeding sows and gilts is high. Huachuang Securities expects that in the context of the lack of vigilance of the southern aquaculture industry against this round of weak strains (which is very similar to 2019), the epidemic in the south will be earlier and stronger than previous years, and the infection surface may develop to more than 50%.

At the same time, the report analyzes the "pig cycle": the decapacity that began in the winter of 2022 may have smoothed out all the increments in the second half of 22 years, and the decapacity and epidemic are still continuing, so the supply in 2023 may be less than in 2022; Coupled with the recovery of demand, it is believed that a new cycle is expected to start in 2023.

In this regard, the surging news reporter called Huachuang Securities to ask why the report was deleted on the public account, and the other party said, "The report we published is aimed at the contracted institutional investors and is not external, so I am sorry, it is not convenient to disclose it for the time being." ”

According to the surging news reporter from a number of pig enterprises, the current industry has actually regularized the prevention and control of African swine fever.

The relevant person in charge of Makihara Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ) told the surging news reporter that for non-plague, large and small pig farms are now under normal management, and there will be no situation like in 2018. "It can also be seen from the pig price that there is still more supply in the market than demand." The person in charge said.

In response to investors' questions on the interactive platform of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Makihara said that the African swine fever epidemic has been in China for more than 3 years, and the current industry African swine fever prevention and control has been normalized, and the relevant biosecurity prevention and control standards have gradually matured. The company continuously improves the level of biosecurity prevention and control, builds and renovates hardware facilities, and optimizes the isolation and protection system. Through purification of production, the ability to prevent and control epidemics can be effectively improved.

New Hope (000876.SZ) previously said in response to investors' questions that the swine disease situation is not serious, the impact on the company's operation is not large, and the company's equity incentive goal is to complete the number of 1850.<> million heads.

On March 3, New Hope said that the current level of prevention and control of non-plague and other major diseases on the company's pig farm has improved significantly in the past two years. On the basis of summarizing the experience of non-pestilence and weak virus epidemic prevention and control in the previous two years, the company optimized the prevention and control and disposal plan, and organized a large number of training and publicity in various levels of business units. At present, good results have been achieved, the prevention and control situation since the beginning of winter is generally much better than that of the past two winters, the non-plague red field has more increase in the time point later, the number of red squares at the peak is less, the disposal after the emergence of red squares is shorter to stabilize, and the pig retention rate is higher, which has improved significantly compared with the same period in the past one or two years. The prevention and control situation in February has improved compared with January this year and February last year, but under the overall situation at the turn of winter and spring, it is still in a tight stage, and it needs to be treated with caution and actively handled.

On March 3, New Hope said in response to investors' questions about the complete cost of pig breeding at this stage on the interactive easy platform that due to the impact of non-plague in winter, the company's recent fat pig cost has rebounded, at about 13 yuan / KG, and then as the weather warms and the impact of non-plague weakens, the cost will return to the channel of continued decline.

Dabeinong (002385) also recently said on the interactive platform that the company will do a good job in the normal management of pig health. Previously, Dongrui Co., Ltd. (001201.SZ) said that at present, the epidemic prevention and control of African swine fever has been normalized, and the company has continuously improved the level of prevention and control, improved the hardware and software facilities for pig farm prevention and control, and can effectively prevent non-epidemic epidemics.

Judging by recent pig prices, they are still low. Domestic hog prices fell slightly last week, and the decline has widened this week. According to data from China Pig Network, on March 3, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) was 17.15 yuan / kg, and on March 22, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) was 3.10 yuan / kg, down 15.87%. From the weekly average price, the average price of pigs this week was 4.1 yuan / kg, and the average price of pigs last week was 15.22 yuan / kg, down 15.82%.

Zhuochuang Information said that the overall pig source in the market is relatively abundant, but the continuous price reduction is easy to trigger the anti-fall and reluctant selling sentiment of the breeding unit, so the fluctuation range of the rhythm of the slaughter may be limited.

From the perspective of sales of leading enterprises in the industry, the first two months of this year showed a trend of growth. From January to February, Makihara sold 1.2 million pigs (including 884.4 million commercial pigs, 863,17 piglets and 9,3 breeding pigs), an increase of 4.12% year-on-year. New Hope sold 9,302,41 pigs, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%. Wenshi sold 352,26,36 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products), an increase of 8.<>% year-on-year.

From February alone, Wen's shares sold 2.193 million pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products), an increase of 55.21% month-on-month and 95.81% year-on-year. New Hope sold 06.173 million pigs, an increase of 3.34% month-on-month and 23.77% year-on-year.

New Hope said that the main reason for the large month-on-month increase in the number of pig sales was that the production and sales base was small during the Spring Festival holiday in January, and the main reason for the large year-on-year increase was the improvement of production indicators in various aspects such as early sow farrowing, current fattening breeding and health and epidemic prevention.