China News Network, March 3 (Zhongxin Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) "The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tier cities increased month-on-month, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities increased year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline in second- and third-tier cities narrowed. ”

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th, in February 2023, with the gradual emergence of policy effects and the further release of housing demand, the number of cities in 2 large and medium-sized cities where the sales price of commercial housing increased month-on-month continued to increase.

Multiple negative to positive data have brought greater market confidence. The industry generally believes that this injects a very positive signal into the real estate industry.

On February 2, Hohhot City, Inner Mongolia, buyers paid attention to real estate information in the sales department. Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Wenhua

The data of each line turned good, and the tone of recovery was clear

Warmth filled with a number of data on house prices in 2 cities in February.

From the new housing data, the price of new homes in first-tier cities increased by 2.0% month-on-month in February, the same increase as the previous month; New home prices in second-tier cities increased by 2.0% month-on-month, an increase of 4.0 percentage points over the previous month, while new home prices in third-tier cities increased by 3.0% from 1.0% in the previous month.

"This is the first time since September 2021 that the price index of new homes in all three types of cities has risen month-on-month. This also shows that with the favorable national and local policies, house prices in various places are generally coming out of the falling range, and the current housing prices in various places are stabilizing and improving more momentum. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out.

From the data of second-hand housing, the price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities in February increased by 2.0% month-on-month, an increase of 7.0 percentage points over the previous month; the price of second-hand housing in second-tier cities increased by 3.0% from 3.0% in the previous month; Second-hand housing prices in third-tier cities were flat from 1.0% in the previous month.

"The second-hand housing price index has also turned higher for the first time on the basis of 18 months of continuous decline, and the second-hand housing transactions in some cities have been very good recently, and even rebounded more than the local first-hand housing trading market." Yan Yuejin believes that the cancellation of the second-hand housing price limit policy, the active entry of high-quality housing listings, and the compression of the second-hand housing belt to see the signing cycle will increase the number of cities with rising house prices.

It is worth noting that compared with the first- and second-tier cities that have already shown warmth, house prices in third-tier cities also showed a stop falling or even turn up in February. Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that the current housing prices in third-tier cities have also bottomed out, indicating that the difficulties and risks faced by China's real estate in the process of moving forward can be effectively resolved.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 3, from January to February, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide fell by 15.1% year-on-year, 2.3 percentage points narrower than last year, and the decline narrowed significantly. Zhang Bo, president of 6 Anjuke Research Institute, believes that on the whole, the tone of the overall recovery has been clear, the certainty of policies has been enhanced, and market confidence is constantly increasing.

Sales price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 2023 large and medium-sized cities in February 2. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Improving demand entry, second-hand housing performed strongly

Compared with the new housing market, the second-hand housing market in February was brighter, and the second-hand housing market in hot cities has shown an upward trend of volume and price.

"The price of second-hand houses in core first- and second-tier cities has increased more than the price of new houses, and the effect of improving housing listings is greater, such as Shanghai, Chengdu, Hefei and other cities where the price of second-hand houses of more than 144 square meters has increased by more than 1% month-on-month." Liu Lijie said.

"Combined with online platform data, the number of second-hand houses of small and medium-sized households has increased, and the shelf time has decreased, and such pre-set data indicators fully reflect a significant rise in demand for house replacement." Zhang Bo believes that the market clearly showed a trend of improvement in February, with a simultaneous start of first-hand housing and an increase in second-hand demand to promote the improvement of demand for housing.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, also mentioned that since the beginning of this year, the pace of supply in the new housing market has been significantly slower than the sales side, and some hot cities have been affected by insufficient supply, so the growth of new housing transaction scale is not obvious.

"The recovery of the market in January and February is the compensatory release of the backlog of housing purchase demand in the early stage, of which a large number of transactions are improved house exchanges, and the relatively high short-term transaction volume does not mean that the market has entered a rapid heating stage." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, also pointed out that the current recovery of the second-hand housing market is stronger than that of the new housing market.

He believes that at present, the number of second-hand housing listings is relatively large, and the housing that consumers can choose is very abundant, not a market structure in short supply, and there will be no general sharp rise in house prices. After the rapid release of backlog of demand, the market recovery momentum is expected to weaken in March compared to February, which is also a normal oscillation in the repair process.

Second-hand residential sales price index for 2023 large and medium-sized cities in February 2. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

The market has not yet stabilized, and differentiation still needs to be vigilant

There are many reasons for the market recovery in February, Xu Xiaole gave an example, ensuring the delivery of buildings, protecting people's livelihood, ensuring stability and other policy measures have effectively protected the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers, the rational financing of housing enterprises has also been improved, and the adjustment and optimization policies of various places have reduced the cost of buying houses and improved consumer confidence.

It should be noted that although the market's forward-looking indicators have recovered, they are still in a relatively low position, and the price movement is relatively stable. Industry analysts generally believe that the improvement of the real estate market since this year is more reflected in the repair of the hot city market, and the national market has not yet stabilized.

Zhang Bo pointed out that although the recovery of hot cities has been clear, some weak second- and third-tier markets are still under pressure, especially in the northeast where Dalian, Shenyang and Changchun are located, where new housing prices are still declining. "The core reason is that the market fundamentals are slow to repair, and the confidence of the industry and buyers is slowly recovering, especially the land acquisition level of housing enterprises is gradually biased towards high-level cities."

Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, said bluntly that it should be noted that due to the limited power of rigid demand and the poor cycle of improvement, the current demand repair or "small Yangchun", the cycle may be relatively short, and it is more necessary to pay attention to the "fault" of demand and the mismatch between supply and demand.

"If future policies continue to be short-term and fragmented on the demand side, such as hot cities withdrawing from purchase restrictions or relaxing leverage restrictions, the marginal effect is limited, and only the purchasing power of high-income people can be activated." Li Yujia believes that the main demand force, that is, new citizens, young people, houseless households and house changers, needs to be included in the commodity economy and commercial housing market with a lower threshold, creating new demand, thereby driving and revitalizing stock demand. (End)