On March 12, many research institutions predicted that the situation of the mobile phone market in 2023 may not be optimistic. The market research organization Strategy Analytics reported that in 2023, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline slightly, down 1% year-on-year , and will grow by 3% year-on-year in 2024.

In addition, global mobile phone shipments will decline by 4% year-on-year in 2023 and rebound to a year-on-year increase of 2% in 2024.

　　Coincidentally, IDC released a report this month stating that in 2023, the global smartphone market shipments will be less than 1.2 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; down 1.1%.

　　In fact, the coldness of the mobile phone market this year is just a continuation of last year's "chill".

　　According to Trend Force data, smartphone brands originally expected to reduce channel inventory through activities such as festivals and e-commerce promotions at the end of 2022. However, the weak global economy continues to impact consumer confidence, resulting in overall market demand that is not as expected, dragging down the progress of channel inventory removal.

According to the report, the output of smartphones in the fourth quarter of 2022 will be about 301 million units, an increase of 4% quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 15.5% year-on-year. Finally, the production volume of smartphones in 2022 will be 1.192 billion units, an annual decrease of 10.6%, surpassing the annual decline at the beginning of the epidemic magnitude.

　　Regarding the continued slump in the mobile phone market, industry opinion points out that the main reason is that cheap mobile phones have rapidly filled the gap in the market in recent years. Both mobile phone manufacturers and mobile phone chip manufacturers have begun to focus more on the mid-range or low-end market. At present, the trend of "involving" mobile phones of various brands towards the middle and low end has emerged.

　　Industry observer Liang Zhenpeng pointed out that from the perspective of current mobile phone products, high-end mobile phones represented by Apple and Samsung are not innovative enough. In addition, the two camps of iOS and Android, which were originally distinct, are gradually converging. Under this situation, many consumers prefer to save money. Cost, choose a more affordable model, even a new growth point such as a folding screen, has failed to significantly boost consumer enthusiasm, on the contrary, the new model has quickly entered the price "involution" stage.

　　The data also confirms this point. According to statistics from CINNO Research, in 2022, the proportion of domestic sales of folding mobile phones priced at RMB 5,000-9,999 will increase to 69%. Percentage points, the sales ratio of 10,000-14,999 yuan dropped from 20% in the same period last year to 10%; the sales volume ratio of 5,000-9,999 yuan price range increased by 51 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 69%.

　　Facing the "involution" in the stock market, today's mobile phone manufacturers pay more attention to the differentiation of product lines, strive to achieve high-end, affordable, and keep revenue and profits as much as possible.

　　The iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Pro released by Apple last year are examples of line differentiation. The standard version starts at 5,999 yuan, while the Pro version starts at 7,999 yuan. Among them, the most eye-catching "Smart Island" is absent on the standard version.

The same strategy is also reflected in Samsung. Among the Samsung mobile phones currently on sale in China, there are not only high-end models such as the Samsung W23 folding screen that start at 15,999 yuan, but also products in the range of 3,000-4,000 yuan such as the Galaxy S22.

　　Since the beginning of this year, domestic mobile phone manufacturers seem to have paid more attention to the affordable market. On February 7, OnePlus released the new OnePlus Ace2. mid-range machine market.

On February 13, Lu Weibing, president of Xiaomi Group and general manager of the Redmi brand, said that Redmi will not be forced to cut prices, but in order to popularize large memory, the price of the Redmi K60 512GB version released at the end of December last year was reduced by 300 yuan to 2999 yuan.

　　This change in the mobile phone market has also been transmitted to the chip market. Recently, Qualcomm officials announced the release of a new processor, which will be officially released on March 17. It is said that the model is Snapdragon 7Gen2. The industry believes that the chip Compared with its high-end product Snapdragon 8+, its performance has been weakened, and its price is expected to drop. It may compete with MediaTek’s Dimensity 8100 and Dimensity 9000 processors, and it will compete in the mid-range mobile phone market. Take more shares.

　　Industry observer Hong Shibin said that for mobile phone manufacturers, it is a more rational and realistic choice to increase prices in the parity market, but fundamentally speaking, this move does not solve the fundamental problem of insufficient innovation in mobile phone products. After all, parity products also have a price bottom line.

Breaking the "involution" may require industry leaders to play a leading role and inject vitality into the market in terms of innovation.

　　Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng Wang Zhuli