Sino-Singapore Jingwei, March 11 (Wang Yongle) A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 31 provinces in February 2023.

Sino-Singapore Jingwei combed and found that in February, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 31 provinces was lower than that of the previous month.

Among them, the highest increase in Jiangsu was 1.7%, and the lowest increase was 0.3% in Guizhou.

　　Source: National Bureau of Statistics website

CPI growth narrowed in 31 provinces

Return to the "0 era" in 15 places

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 2023, the national CPI fell by 0.5% month-on-month and rose by 1.0% year-on-year.

The year-on-year growth rate of CPI rose, returning to the "1 era", which was significantly lower than market expectations.

　　China-Singapore Jingwei combed and found that the CPI of 31 provinces rose year-on-year in February, and the provinces whose growth rates were higher or lower than the national level were 13 and 15, respectively, compared with 14 and 15 provinces last month.

In terms of growth rate, the growth rate of 31 provinces was lower than that of last month, and 22 provinces increased their growth rate last month.

　　Specifically, 13 provinces, including Jiangsu, Tibet, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Hubei, Gansu, Beijing, Liaoning, Jiangxi, Ningxia, Hebei, and Yunnan, have seen growth rates higher than the national level; Tianjin, Zhejiang, and Qinghai have risen at the same level as the national level; Shanxi , Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Anhui, Fujian, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Hainan, Shaanxi, Henan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou and other 15 provinces rose lower than the national level, and all returned to the "0 era".

　　In addition, in terms of the rate of decrease, Hainan ranked first in the rate of decrease, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points. Hainan was the only province whose CPI increase in January entered the "3 era".

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the CPI in February fell by 0.5% month-on-month, which was superimposed on the dislocation of the Spring Festival, resulting in a high base in February 2022. The year-on-year decline in CPI was even greater, reaching 1.1 percentage points.

After excluding the expected festival factors, the main unexpected factors are mainly due to the supply side, including more abundant food supply due to fine weather than in previous years, and full competition in the durable consumer goods market.

How will CPI go in the future?

　　According to the government work report, the main target of CPI in 2023 is to increase by about 3%.

　　Li Chunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference on March 6 that he is confident and capable of achieving the expected CPI target for this year.

　　The impact of the Spring Festival effect has subsided, and institutions generally expect that inflation will be safe in the short term, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will rise moderately.

　　According to the analysis of Caitong Securities Chen Xing’s team, from the perspective of high-frequency data, since March, the price decline of pork and eggs has narrowed, the price of fresh vegetables has dropped slightly, and the price increase of fresh fruits has slowed down. The growth rate has picked up, and the year-on-year growth rate has risen steadily.

　　Wen Bin said that due to various reasons, the CPI in February may become a relatively low point for the whole year.

It is expected that the CPI will remain in the range of 1% to 2% year-on-year with a high probability in the next few months, and it is unlikely to break through the 3% inflation control target within the year.

　　Donghai Securities Research Report believes that the annual inflation center may still be relatively moderate.

Looking back, on the one hand, the dislocation factors of the Spring Festival are gradually fading away, and at the same time, the base in the first half of the year is low, and the CPI may rise temporarily; uplift.

　　According to the analysis of the macro report of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, due to the peak and fall of the pig cycle, the release of service demand and the low base effect, the overall CPI is on the upward channel, and there is a certain pressure on the price of consumer goods, while the price of services mainly depends on the situation of demand recovery. , The year-on-year growth rate of CPI under the natural trend in 2023 will continue to move up slightly compared with 2022, and there is a high probability that it will show a trend of high first, then low and then stable. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 2023 will be about 2.5%.

　　The Northeast Securities macro report believes that the CPI inflation in 2023 will roughly show a V-shaped trend throughout the year. Touching 3%.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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