Interview

Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement: “We are witnessing the beginnings of a new regional configuration”

China's top diplomat Wang Yi flanked by Saudi National Security Advisor and Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, at the agreement signing ceremony in Beijing, Friday, March 10, 2023. via REUTERS - CHINA DAILY

Text by: Clea Broadhurst Follow

4 mins

Iran and Saudi Arabia, heavyweights in the Middle East who severed their ties in 2016, announced on Friday March 10 the restoration of their diplomatic relations within two months following talks in China.

What consequences could this agreement have in the Middle East and in the struggle for influence between Beijing and Washington?

Interview with Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World.

Advertisement

Read more

RFI: How could the rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran change the situation in the region? 

Hasni Abidi:

is bad news for Israel since the Israeli government was counting on a certain normalization with Saudi Arabia, and especially for an isolation of Iran and a regional alliance able to form a coalition in the event of military action against Iran.

Today, Saudi Arabia allows Iran to come out of its isolation and it is rather Israel that today seems isolated on the Middle Eastern scene. 

But there are other consequences, which depend on the scope of this agreement.

It should be remembered that the objective of the agreement is to secure Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is called for very important reforms and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is in a hurry to take power.

For this, it needs a much more reassuring regional environment.

He needs to secure Saudi Arabia, secure the oil installations, and this securing, just like the security of the throne, also requires a different relationship, a peaceful relationship, with the Iranians.

Could there be impacts on certain countries, such as Yemen and Syria? 

The consequences on Syria, on Yemen, on Iraq, on Lebanon are less of a priority for Saudi Arabia.

On the other hand, at the end of the next two months, time allowed and

condition imposed by Saudi Arabia to measure the collaboration of the Iranians, it could be that these other files follow.

It will be in future negotiations since the negotiations between Saudis and Iranians are set to continue.

But it is obvious that securing Saudi Arabia requires stopping the attacks carried out on Saudi soil, by the Houthis in Yemen, who are supported by the Iranians. 

Saudi Arabia does not want to have conflicting relations with its neighbors.

She is for a certain dynamic of peace and she is also somewhat shunned by US President Joe Biden.

The Saudi leadership wants to free itself from American tutelage and diversify its relations internationally. 

What does China's role in these negotiations mean? 

For Saudi Arabia, the presence of a guarantor state is very important, because trust has been broken between Tehran and Riyadh for several years.

This is why China showed its interest, already three years ago, during a meeting between the Saudi and Chinese leaders.

The Chinese have expressed interest in mediating between the two states.

For what ?

Because China has important priorities with Saudi Arabia as an oil supplier, but also with the Iranians.

It was therefore absolutely necessary that the relationship be different between these two privileged partners of China.

►

Saudi Arabia needs China, because the only states listened to by the Iranians today are China and Russia.

Moreover, a strong partner was needed, a guarantor for this agreement and at the same time, for China, this meant a triumphant return to the Middle East scene.

This allows China to tell the Americans that, even if there is pressure against it, it becomes a privileged interlocutor of regional powers in the region, namely Saudi Arabia and Iran. 

Are we witnessing the establishment of a new world order, in your opinion? 

Rather, we are witnessing the beginnings of a new regional configuration.

But beware, the strategic relationship between Washington and Tehran should not be underestimated.

The Saudis cannot do without an exclusively Chinese or Russian relationship and of course this relationship also depends on the incumbents of the White House.

If tomorrow, a new American president is much more attentive with the Saudi leadership,

, Saudi Arabia will surely turn to the Americans again.

For the moment, we are witnessing rather a desire to diversify Saudi Arabia's relations and also to use this relationship with Beijing as a means of pressure on the American administration, to tell Washington that the alternative exists and that Saudi Arabia can also have good relations with other states, which are no less important in the region. 

Newsletter

Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

Continue reading on the same topics

• Saudi Arabia

• Iran

• our selection

• Interview