The 2023 budget report is released, and national fiscal revenue is expected to grow by single digits

　　Part of this year's financial books, which has received much attention, has been made public.

　　Entrusted by the State Council, the Ministry of Finance submitted to the first meeting of the 14th National People's Congress to review the "Report on the Implementation of the Central and Local Budgets in 2022 and the Draft Central and Local Budgets in 2023" (hereinafter referred to as the "Budget Report"), Xinhua on March 6 The agency released a summary of the budget report.

Among them, the fiscal revenue and expenditure budget arrangements for 2023 have attracted much attention.

　　From the perspective of income, this year's fiscal revenue is expected to show a single-digit growth overall, which is significantly better than last year.

　　The budget report shows that

In 2022, this growth rate will be only 0.6%.

　　Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities and director of the research institute, told China Business News that the income situation this year is better than last year, mainly because the overall recovery of the economy has laid the foundation for a better financial income situation.

In addition, last year's large-scale value-added tax refund resulted in a low base, which laid the foundation for the recovery of fiscal revenue this year.

At the same time, part of last year's deferred tax fees will be put into storage this year, which is also conducive to income growth.

　　The above base and other factors also make the growth rate of the national general public budget revenue this year slightly higher than the economic growth rate (around 5%).

　　Of course, this year's revenue growth rate is expected to not reach double-digit growth rates like in 2021, which reflects the reasonable and prudent setting of revenue targets.

Behind this, it also reflects that the foundation for economic recovery this year is not yet solid, and there are uncertainties in income growth.

In addition, this year, China will improve its tax and fee support policies. The existing measures such as tax cuts and fee reductions, tax rebates and tax deferrals should be continued and optimized, which will also lead to fiscal revenue reduction in the short term.

　　Previously, 31 provinces also released their reports on their 2022 budget implementation and 2023 draft budget, including Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and nearly half of the provinces whose income growth rate is expected to be between 5% and 6%.

　　General public budget revenue consists of tax revenue and non-tax revenue.

Tax revenue declined last year. In order to make up for the reduction in tax revenue, non-tax revenue maintained a double-digit growth rate. This was mainly due to the revitalization of stock resource assets, and the income from the paid use of state-owned resources (assets) increased significantly.

　　With the recovery of the economy this year, there will be restorative growth in tax revenue, and the space for local governments to revitalize stock resources and assets will decrease, and the growth rate of non-tax revenue will slow down significantly.

　　For example, according to the local budget report, Guangdong expects tax revenue growth rate to be 16.5% this year, while non-tax revenue growth rate is -21.7%.

Shandong's tax revenue and non-tax revenue are expected to grow by 15% and -15.7% respectively this year.

　　In addition to the national general public budget revenue, the national government fund revenue is also an important part of finance.

　　The budget report shows that

Among them, the local government fund budget revenue at its own level was 7,402.1 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4%.

　　Affected by the sluggish property market and the shortage of funds for developers last year, the land market was sluggish, and the income from the sale of local state-owned land use rights fell sharply (-23%).

The income from local land sales accounted for 90% of the income of local government funds, which also led to a sharp drop in the income of local government funds.

　　After the sharp drop last year, according to the above-mentioned budget report, the revenue of local government funds is expected to increase slightly this year, which is basically balanced with last year. This also reflects that the local government as a whole expects that the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights this year will be similar to last year.

　　Luo Zhiheng said that the macro economy will continue to recover this year, and the continuous introduction of a series of policies to stabilize growth will help boost residents' confidence and income, and lay the foundation for the gradual recovery of the real estate market.

At the same time, the policy of stabilizing the property market will promote the gradual recovery of the real estate market.

More importantly, the financing problems of high-quality leading real estate companies will be resolved, the risks of real estate companies will be gradually alleviated, and the ability to acquire land will be enhanced.

Therefore, the land market is expected to stabilize in 2023, and land transfer income will generally recover.

However, judging from the recovery rhythm, it may have obvious effects in the second half of the year, and further observation is expected in the first half of the year.

　　Of course, judging from the 31 provinces, each region makes different predictions on the income expectations of local government funds based on local conditions.

　　First Finance and Economics sorted out the budget reports of 31 provinces and found that 21 provinces are expected to achieve growth in government fund budget revenue this year, mainly because land transfer revenue can maintain growth.

However, there are also 10 provinces that predict that government fund budget revenue will continue to decline this year, mainly due to the expected decline in land transfer revenue.

　　The government budget also has two accounts, namely the state-owned capital operation budget and the social insurance fund budget.

　　According to the budget report, summarizing the central and local budgets, the national state-owned capital operation budget revenue in 2023 will be 535.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.8%.

The national social insurance fund budget revenue was 10,935.663 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%.

　　Shi Zhengwen, a professor at the China University of Political Science and Law, once told a reporter from China Business News that budget revenue is an expected and directional indicator, not a rigid task, and there is uncertainty about whether the revenue target can be achieved in the end.

Because income must be collected according to law, which is affected by many factors such as the economy.

　　From the perspective of expenditure, according to the budget report, the national general public budget expenditure is 27,513 billion yuan (including 50 billion yuan of central reserve funds), an increase of 5.6%.

　　This year, the national general public budgetary expenditures still maintain a moderate growth, which also reflects the strengthening of the proactive fiscal policy and the maintenance of a certain expenditure intensity.

People's livelihood, science and technology, rural revitalization, environmental protection and other fields are still the focus of expenditure.

　　For example, the budget report shows that this year, the per capita financial subsidy standard for basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents will increase by 30 yuan, reaching 640 yuan per person per year.

The per capita financial subsidy standard for basic public health services was increased by 5 yuan, reaching 89 yuan per person per year.

Properly increase the basic pension level of retirees.

In addition, 170 billion yuan in financial subsidies will be arranged through general transfer payments, and 30 billion yuan in 2022 accrual-based carryover funds will be used to support local governments in epidemic prevention and control.

　　Luo Zhiheng believes that this year's expenditure pressure is still relatively high, and the task of optimizing the expenditure structure is relatively heavy.

For example, the important goal of stabilizing growth and promoting the overall improvement of economic operation this year is an important guarantee for stabilizing employment and people's livelihood. This requires fiscal promotion to promote consumption and expand investment.

It includes not only directly stimulating infrastructure construction to drive investment, but also strengthening the construction of the circulation guarantee system in key cities, building a smooth circulation system for comprehensive logistics hubs, and tapping the consumption potential of counties and townships.

　　According to the budget report, adjustments such as social security and transfer payments will be increased this year, residents' income will be increased through multiple channels, and consumption potential will be fully released.

Do a good job in the preliminary preparations for local government special bond projects, appropriately increase the concentration of fund use, and give priority to supporting mature projects and projects under construction.

　　According to the budget report, this year's national government fund budget expenditure is 11,796.299 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7%.

The national state-owned capital operating budget expenditure was 346.881 billion yuan, an increase of 2.2%.

The national social insurance fund budget expenditure was 9,800.844 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2%.