(Observation of the Two Sessions) What does the "double increase" mean under the tone of China's proactive fiscal policy "afterburner"?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 6. Question: What does "double promotion" mean under the tone of China's proactive fiscal policy "afterburner"?

　　China News Agency reporter Xia Bin

　　China's government work report for 2023 clearly states that China's deficit rate is planned to be 3% this year, and local government special bonds are planned to be 3.8 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below).

Under the tone of the proactive fiscal policy to increase efficiency, these two major figures have increased compared with 2022. What does it mean?

The expansion of the deficit is beneficial to stabilize the market and guide expectations

　　"The strengthening of macroeconomic regulation and control is reflected in an important sign of fiscal policy that the deficit rate should be appropriately increased." Liu Shangxi, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, told a reporter from China News Agency.

　　Liu Shangxi said that increasing the deficit ratio is conducive to better stabilizing the economic market, consolidating the momentum of economic recovery, and laying the foundation for sustainable growth in the future.

Especially when the triple pressures faced by economic development have not been fundamentally alleviated, and the current consumption and investment are weak, it is necessary to use proactive fiscal policies to expand domestic demand and guide expectations. The strengthening of fiscal policies will boost market confidence.

3% did not break through the so-called "warning line"

　　The outside world is wondering, under the three-year impact of the epidemic, the pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure is heavy, and the increase in the deficit rate will increase the debt risk?

　　Liu Shangxi bluntly said that "3%" does not mean breaking through the so-called "warning line", and should be judged according to the economic situation.

"As long as our actual economic growth does not reach the potential economic growth rate, we should expand the deficit instead of being constrained by 3%; if we can fully release the potential of economic growth by expanding the deficit, then we should increase the deficit .”

　　Tian Xuan, deputy dean of the National People's Congress and deputy dean of Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance, told reporters from China News Agency that in 2023, with more emphasis on policy accuracy and coordination of various policies, the economy will generally recover, fiscal revenue will continue to grow, and fiscal expenditure will also increase. The increase in the deficit ratio by 0.2 percentage points is a scientific arrangement made after an objective assessment of the economic situation.

　　Liu Shangxi also believes that with economic growth, increased financial resources, and expanded tax sources, fiscal revenue will have a stable foundation, and fiscal risks will instead decrease.

From the perspective of debt ratio, the numerator is debt and the denominator is GDP. As long as GDP is increased, the risk of debt will decrease.

The special debt increase is intended to stabilize growth and expand investment

　　What is the role of special debt in economic development?

Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Director of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, said that the issuance of new local government special bonds last year supported the construction of about 30,000 key projects, effectively playing a strong foundation, strengthening weak links, benefiting people's livelihood, and expanding investment. effect.

According to the list submitted by each province, there will be more than 40,000 key projects across the country this year, and the investment within the year is expected to exceed 11 trillion yuan. It is necessary to further expand the scale of local special bonds to support the effective implementation of projects.

　　In 2023, China plans to arrange 3.8 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, an increase of 0.15 trillion yuan compared with 2022.

　　Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, analyzed that there may be two reasons for the special debt increase.

First, infrastructure investment needs to continue to play a key role in stabilizing growth in 2023. Compared with real estate and manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment will take effect faster when counter-cyclical adjustments are made.

Compared with hidden debts, special debts are more transparent and the risks are more controllable.

　　The second is that in 2022, in addition to the newly-added local special bond quota of 3.65 trillion yuan, the 1.2 trillion yuan of special bond funds newly issued in the fourth quarter of 2021 but not actually used in the year, and the special bond balance limit of 500 billion yuan will also be used , as the balance of special debt funds available in 2023 will drop sharply, the new quota for 2023 will be moderately raised.

　　Lian Ping said that this year, on the basis of supporting the existing 11 fields, the special bonds will appropriately expand the scope of funds invested in fields and used as project capital, concentrate efforts on major tasks, and accelerate the implementation of major projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan".

While government investment remains unabated, it will also encourage and attract more private capital to participate in the construction of major national projects and short-term projects, so as to better play the leading role of "four-two-two thousand catties".

　　For the current measures such as tax cuts and fee reductions, tax rebates and deferrals, this year's government work report proposes that the continuation should be continued and the optimization should be optimized.

Liu Shangxi said that some of the above-mentioned measures can be continued in stages, while others should be converted into institutional arrangements, which is conducive to stabilizing expectations.

　　Tian Xuan said that this year, it is necessary to further enhance the accuracy of fiscal policies based on the actual situation of economic development and around the fiscal revenue and expenditure targets formulated in the government work report, firmly support small, medium and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, and industries in extreme poverty, and enhance market confidence.

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