Chinanews.com, March 3rd (Zhongxin Finance and Economics Gong Hongyu) Will the RRR cuts and interest rates be cut this year?
How will the real estate market develop?
Will prices go higher?
How do you see the record high of residents' savings?
What is the degree of deposit protection?
On the 3rd, the State Council Information Office held a series of press conferences on the theme of "Commitment from Authoritative Departments". Yi Gang, Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Liu Guoqiang, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, introduced " Strengthen confidence, keep integrity and innovate, and serve the high-quality development of the real economy" and answered questions from reporters.
Data map: People's Bank of China.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong
Talking about Residents' Savings Reaching a New High
——Resident savings will gradually return to normal this year
Last year, my country's resident savings reached a new high.
Liu Guoqiang said that as the macro economy improves, residents' confidence in consumption and investment will increase, and residents' savings will gradually return to normal.
This year, the precautionary savings accumulated in the previous period are expected to be gradually released into actual consumption demand.
A series of policies to promote consumption have been introduced and implemented, and the policy effects will gradually appear.
In addition, after the economy improves, it will help enhance residents' investment confidence, and residents' investment will gradually return to normal levels.
Talk about deposit insurance
——Able to provide full protection for more than 99% of depositors
Yi Gang introduced that the central bank continues to improve the financial risk prevention and control system and mechanism.
All provinces have established financial risk resolution committees led by provincial leaders to consolidate the responsibilities of financial institutions and their shareholders, the responsibilities of regulatory authorities and the territorial responsibilities of local parties and governments, and form a positive incentive for financial risk prevention and control.
"At present, all deposit-taking financial institutions in the country have joined deposit insurance, which can provide full protection for more than 99% of depositors." Yi Gang said.
Renminbi data map.
Photo by Liu Yanghe, Sino-Singapore Finance and Economics
Discuss whether to cut RRR and interest rates
— To consolidate the results of the decline in real loan interest rates
Yi Gang said that the current level of some major variables of monetary policy is more appropriate, and the level of real interest rates is also more appropriate.
In the past five years, through 14 RRR cuts, the statutory deposit reserve ratio is less than 8%, which is not as high as in the past. However, it is still a way to provide long-term liquidity and support the real economy through RRR cuts. A more effective way to keep the overall liquidity at a reasonable and sufficient level.
"This year the People's Bank of China will implement a sound monetary policy accurately and forcefully." Liu Guoqiang said that it is necessary to coordinate the short-term and long-term, strengthen inter-cyclical regulation and counter-cyclical regulation, adhere to normal monetary policy, maintain positive interest rates and an upward yield curve, and do not Flood irrigation, not a lot of harvest and a lot of release.
Yi Gang mentioned that in the next step, on the one hand, the total amount of money and credit should be moderate and the pace should be stable, and the achievement of the decline in real loan interest rates should be consolidated.
On the other hand, the role of structural monetary policy should be brought into play appropriately, and strong support should be maintained for inclusive small and micro enterprises, green finance, technological innovation and other fields.
Talk about price trends
——In 2023, my country's inflation level will generally remain moderate, which is the main tone
Liu Guoqiang said that in 2023, my country's overall inflation level will remain moderate. In the short term, inflationary pressures are generally controllable, because my country's economy is currently in the process of recovering and developing, and insufficient effective demand is still the main contradiction. The supply chain is running smoothly, the supply is relatively sufficient, and residents' inflation expectations are relatively stable, which has favorable conditions for maintaining basically stable prices.
In the longer term, there are still many unpredictable things in the external environment, and demand is still gradually recovering. Although the probability of inflation is low, it does not mean that there is no such thing. We must establish a bottom-line thinking and remain vigilant against inflation.
Data map: Fuzhou, Fujian, real estate under construction.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Talk about property market recovery
——The transaction activity of the real estate market has increased
Pan Gongsheng said that in the recent period, the recovery of market confidence has accelerated, the activity of transactions in the real estate market has increased, and the financing environment of the real estate industry, especially high-quality real estate companies, has improved significantly.
In January this year, real estate development loans increased by more than 370 billion yuan, an increase of 220 billion yuan year-on-year.
Domestic real estate bonds issued 40 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%.
"In the next step, we will support rigid and improved housing demand, support the housing demand of new citizens, support the development of the housing market with both rental and purchase, improve the basic system of real estate finance and the macro-prudential management system, and promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model. "
On the direction of RMB exchange rate
——The RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level
Yi Gang said that in the past five years, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar has broken through "7" for three times and then returned below "7", with two-way fluctuations and increased flexibility. Among various currencies in the world, the renminbi is very stable.
Next, on the one hand, the exchange rate should be kept stable, and on the other hand, the exchange rate should be flexible.
Overall, the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, with some small two-way fluctuations also driven by the market.
According to Pan Gongsheng, the international status of RMB has been greatly improved.
The weight of RMB in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights is now the third, and more than 80 countries and economies around the world have included the RMB as a reserve currency, ranking fifth among the world's major reserve currencies.
Talk about financial stability
——The financial industry operates steadily and the overall risks are controllable
Yi Gang said that the operation of China's financial industry is stable, the overall financial risk is restrained, and the overall risk is controllable.
Last year, the People's Bank of China completed the write-off tasks of the financial reform costs of state-owned commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives, which further consolidated the financial foundation of the modern central bank system, which is conducive to better realizing currency stability and financial stability.
He said that the central bank has comprehensively implemented new asset management regulations, reduced the scale of "credit-like" high-risk shadow banks by about 30 trillion yuan, and promoted special rectification of Internet financial risks. Nearly 5,000 P2P online lending institutions have all closed down.
"The Financial Stability Law has passed the first review of the National People's Congress. The central bank will promote the introduction of the Financial Stability Law, and bring all kinds of financial activities into supervision according to law, so as to protect the interests of the vast majority of ordinary people, small and medium-sized investors, and insured persons. "Yi Gang said.
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