The 12-month Euribor, the index to which most variable mortgages in Spain are referenced, has closed the month of February with a monthly rate of 3.533%, although its daily rate has reached 3.7%, according to the data collected by Europa Press.

If this figure is confirmed, the index would be

at its highest level since November 2008

, when it registered a monthly rate of 4.350% in a context of global financial crisis derived from a housing bubble that caused housing prices to fall.

In fact, the following month, the Euribor stood at 3.452%, almost one percentage point less.

Compared to January, when the Euribor closed at 3.337%, the rise is 0.196 percentage points and 3.868 points compared to the data for February 2022, when the indicator stood at -0.335%.

With the average registered so far of 3.533%, a person who has contracted a 30-year variable mortgage of 150,000 euros and with a differential of 0.99% plus Euribor will

suffer an increase in their mortgage payment of around 300 euros


In absolute terms, you will go from paying about 460 euros to about 761 per month, which is equivalent to an additional annual outlay of more than 3,600 euros.

With the same conditions, a mortgage of 300,000 euros of capital pending amortization and 30 years pending payment would have to assume a monthly increase of 600 euros,

which means around 7,250 additional euros per year


XTB analyst Joaquín Robles points out that this index continues to be "very conditioned"

by the prospects for further rate hikes by the European Central Bank


"The market is discounting another increase of 50 basis points for the next ECB meeting", which will be held on March 16, and is preparing "for a new increase of at least 25 basis points in the month of May".

Despite the fact that inflation in the euro area has shown signs of moderation in the last three months, reaching 8.6%, this level is still

well above the 2% target set by the ECB


"In recent weeks, the upturns in consumption and in services activity have raised fears that inflation pressures will continue, which could lead the ECB to extend the cycle of increases for longer than expected," Explain.

The hope of the central banks -not only the ECB- in recent months was that the rate hikes would serve to curb demand, in such a way that prices would gradually stabilize.

However, the economy is showing greater strength than expected, which may serve to avoid a "deep recession", but "prolong the fight against inflation", explains the expert.

In this way, XTB sees it as "difficult" to predict a ceiling for interest rates in the euro area, although it does not rule out that they reach 4% in June, which still gives the Euribor room to continue its upward trend.


For its part, Asufin maintains its forecast that the index

will climb to 4% in June, July and August

, at which time a "moderate decline" will begin to close 2023 at 3.7%.

HelpMyCash analysts also believe that the Euribor will continue to rise, although they expect it to reach 4% before Asufin.

Specifically, the specialist in the mortgage market for this comparator, Miquel Riera, assures that this index will close the month of March at around 4% "or even above", since he anticipates that the ECB's monetary policy will continue to boost the indicator, with a new rise in rates in March of 50 basis points, up to 3.5%.

For his part, the director of Mortgages of the mortgage comparator iAhorro, Simone Colombelli, also believes that the Euribor could reach 4% before the summer, although he affirms that "the logical thing" is that in the medium term, this indicator will stagnate and reach a stabilization point.

"At the moment it is clear that we have not arrived," she says.


On the impact of this rise in the Euribor on the mortgage market, Rastreator's mortgage manager, Sergio Carbajal, points out that it has led to "great interest" on the part of debtors to change their variable-rate mortgage loan to one of fixed or mixed

Specifically, the comparator indicates that in the last month 31% of the production has been mortgage changes, which represents an increase of 342% compared to last year, although it expects that this rise will moderate over the next few years. months, especially from September, since it will be a year since the "unstoppable climb" of the indicator.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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