China News Agency, Beijing, February 24th (Reporter Xia Bin) The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") announced by the People's Bank of China on the 24th stated that China's inflation level is expected to remain moderate in general, and the We must be wary of future inflation rebound pressure.
The report pointed out that in 2022, China's CPI (consumer price index) will rise by 2.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate of PPI (factory price index of industrial producers) will decline quarter by quarter, and it will rise by 4.1% year-on-year for the whole year.
Over the past five or ten years, China's CPI has maintained an average annual growth rate of around 2%, achieving a rare situation of price stability amid internal and external challenges.
According to the report, looking forward to the future, inflationary pressures are generally controllable in the short term. The current Chinese economy is still in the process of recovery and development. Insufficient effective demand is still the main contradiction. The industrial chain and supply chain are running smoothly. The increase in PPI is expected to remain low overall.
In the medium and long term, the price level has the favorable conditions to remain basically stable, the supply and demand of China's economy are generally balanced, the monetary policy remains prudent, and residents' inflation expectations are stable.
At the same time, attention should also be paid to the uncertainty of future domestic price trends. After the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, consumption momentum may gradually increase. In 2023, domestic tourism revenue during the Spring Festival holiday will increase by 30% year-on-year, and the number of Spring Festival travel tourists will increase by more than 50% year-on-year; economic vitality will further increase. Released, enterprises are accelerating the resumption of work and full production, and the accelerated recovery of the labor market may have an impact on future wage changes; the cumulative effects of various policies are still gradually emerging.
In addition, inflation in major developed economies is relatively stubborn, commodity prices are still under upward pressure, and high overseas inflation may also be transmitted to China through production, circulation and other links.
It is necessary to strengthen monitoring, research and judgment, and continue to pay attention to the rebound pressure of inflation.
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