On the morning of February 23, the news that Zhengzhou's first home loan interest rate will rise began to circulate in the industry.
Some local official media learned from Bohai Bank in Zhengzhou that the current first-home loan interest rate is 4.3%.
However, in less than half a day, the bank's caliber has changed.
"At present, the 3.8% first-home loan interest rate is still implemented. The notice and policy must be unified. We are consistent with other banks." The personal loan manager of Zhengzhou Jiuru Road Branch of Bohai Bank said.
"If there is a policy change, we will notify the personal loan center. At present, our first-home loan interest rate is still at the level of 3.8%, and we have not received a relevant increase notice. I don't know why the outside world has spread it like this." The staff of Zhengzhou Branch of Bohai Bank said.
In January this year, after the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission established a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the first housing loan interest rate, Zhengzhou lowered the first housing loan interest rate. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and many other banks implemented the lower limit of the first housing loan interest rate of 3.8%.
Mortgage interest rate adjustment "half-day tour"
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In fact, the news that Bohai Bank's mortgage rate will be raised has been spread locally the day before.
Many real estate agents in Zhengzhou said that they received news from Bohai Bank yesterday that the mortgage interest rate will be raised, but it is not yet determined whether to implement 4.15% or 4.3%.
Why the sudden change in caliber now?
"As the first to eat crabs, Bohai Bank is under a lot of pressure."
The explanation of the staff of another branch of the bank may be closer to the real situation.
"We have recently suspended the mortgage quota. If there is a need to buy a house, you can see what cooperative bank the developer has and whether there is Bohai Bank. At present, it is temporarily suspended. There is no increase in interest rates, but whether to implement the 3.8% after recovery level, which cannot be guaranteed now."
The personal loan manager of a branch of Zhengzhou Branch of Bohai Bank said that some banks will raise the mortgage interest rate, and most of them may raise it later, but it has not been confirmed yet.
Regarding the situation of Bohai Bank, the manager avoided talking about it.
Regarding the "twists and turns" of the mortgage, Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, said that the incident at least shows that under the background of continuous mortgage interest rate cuts, there seems to be a little "ripple", and the environment of mortgage interest rates has changed.
Some banks may have similar considerations or reserves, but it cannot be directly understood that adjustments will be made in the near future.
The decline in mortgage interest rates originated in early January this year when the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission established the first dynamic adjustment mechanism for housing loan interest rate policies. During the evaluation period, cities whose sales prices of new commercial housing have declined for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year can adjust the local first The lower limit of housing loan interest rates. During the follow-up evaluation period, cities whose relevant indicators have risen for three consecutive months will resume the implementation of the nationally unified lower limit of first-home commercial loan interest rates in the next quarter.
At that time, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of new residential buildings in Zhengzhou from September to November 2022 was eligible for interest rate reduction. At the end of January, Zhengzhou Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and other banks had adjusted the lower limit of the first set of interest rates to 3.8%.
Before this adjustment, the annual interest rate of the first home loan in Zhengzhou was 4.1%.
It is worth noting that it has not been a full month since Zhengzhou lowered the interest rate, and it has not yet reached the next evaluation period.
In just one month, there was talk of an upward adjustment in the market, which was still due to the restlessness in the Zhengzhou market.
According to data from the Zhengzhou Branch of the Shell Research Institute, after the policy was released on January 29, daily online business opportunities on the Shell platform have increased significantly.
On the 30th, it reached 13372 groups, the highest value in nearly half a year.
On February 5, the daily viewing of second-hand housing exceeded 2,900 groups, and the single-day viewing of new housing exceeded 800 groups, which also reached the highest peak in a single day in the past half a year.
However, looking at the overall situation, the current property market in Zhengzhou is far from hot.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Middle Finger Research Institute, said that the transaction area of new commercial housing in Zhengzhou in January was 590,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, and a slight increase from the previous month. Still, the policy of short-term credit to support the release of housing demand is still expected to continue.
"The increase of mortgage interest rates by individual banks does not represent the overall market. At present, most banks in Zhengzhou still maintain the first set of 3.8% mortgage interest rates."
Mortgage interest rates continue to drop in Baicheng
From a national perspective, the reduction of mortgage interest rates is still the mainstream.
According to a recent report released by the Shell Research Institute, the first set of mainstream interest rates in Baicheng averaged 4.04% in February, a month-on-month decrease of 6BP.
The average interest rate of the second set was 4.91%, which was flat from the previous month.
In February, the first and second home loan interest rates fell by 143BP and 84BP year-on-year respectively.
At the same time, among the 38 cities that met the conditions for dynamic adjustment of first-home loan interest rates in February, the first-home loan interest rates in 17 cities including Shijiazhuang, Harbin, Changchun, and Fuzhou were adjusted back to less than 4%.
Among the 103 key cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute, a total of 23 cities have lowered the first-home loan interest rate, and the number of cities with the first-home loan interest rate lower than 4.1% has increased to 34 cities.
From the perspective of various cities, the first-tier cities have the highest housing loan interest rate, with an average of 4.60% for the first housing and 5.13% for the second housing, both unchanged from the previous month.
The average first-time interest rate in second-tier cities is 3.99%, down 8BP from the previous month; the average first-time interest rate in third- and fourth-tier cities is 4.04%, down 4BP from the previous month.
The second-tier interest rates in the second-tier and third-tier and fourth-tier cities are 4.91% and 4.90% respectively.
In terms of the average lending cycle, due to the abundant credit of commercial banks at the beginning of the year, the lending speed is also accelerating.
In February, the average lending cycle of Baicheng Bank was 28 days, which was 3 days shorter than the previous month.
Among them, the average loan cycle in first-tier cities is 36 days, the average loan cycle in second-tier cities is 29 days, and the average loan cycle in third- and fourth-tier cities is 28 days.
Just recently, several departments of Rizhao City, Shandong Province jointly issued "Several Measures for Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Rizhao City", and proposed nine new policies for the real estate market, including optimizing the identification standards for the first house of personal loans and adjusting the housing provident fund loan policy. The lower limit of the first-home housing loan interest rate policy should be adjusted in a timely manner.
Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province announced a new property market policy on February 20, implementing a long-term mechanism for dynamic adjustment of the interest rate policy for newly issued commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing. -20BP is adjusted to LPR-50BP, that is, the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate is lowered from 4.1% to 3.8%.
Xuzhou also recently issued a new policy stating that it intends to lower the interest rate of the first set of personal housing loans to 3.8%. At present, Bank of Jiangsu, Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and other banks have officially lowered the interest rate of first-home loans.
Taking a 1 million yuan mortgage and repaying principal and interest in equal amounts for 30 years as an example, the monthly payment will drop from 4831.98 yuan to 4659.57 yuan.
Yan Yuejin said that when the real estate market began to change, the decline or increase of mortgage interest rates was also in line with expectations.
The current 3.8% interest rate has a precondition, that is, temporary, temporary, and short-term adjustments made for cities where the housing price index continues to weaken. The mainstream mortgage interest rate is actually still at 4.3% or 4.1%.
All localities should rationally view the current 3.8% interest rate. Even if there is a 4.3% interest rate, it cannot be simply understood as an increase, but the cancellation of some special preferential interest rates.
The current market is not simply recovering, but we should pay attention to the trend that the recovery may be better than expected.