Reporter Gong Mengze
"New energy vehicles are still in the stage of rapid growth, and production capacity construction needs a certain period. Considering the development of next year, the year after and the future, there is no problem of excess production capacity of new energy vehicles in my country at this stage. If the production capacity is not prepared in advance, At that time, demand will be in short supply." At the expert media exchange meeting of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum (2023), Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former Minister of Industry and Information Technology, addressed the "remarks on overcapacity of new energy vehicles" in the current market. respond.
In addition, due to factors such as the withdrawal of new energy subsidies and the advance of the Spring Festival holiday, my country's auto market did not see a "good start" in January this year, and the new energy vehicle market, which had been advancing all the way, also experienced a correction.
In this regard, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, professor of Tsinghua University, and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Association, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the growth rate of my country's electric vehicles and batteries will decline this year, and the price of lithium materials will also decrease. return to a reasonable range.
After the withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, there will be an upward trend in plug-in hybrid and range-extended electric vehicles in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the growth trend of my country's new energy vehicles will not change.
The automobile industry can learn from the "registration system"
In January this year, although the market share of new energy vehicles remained at a high level of 24.7%, there was a rare drop in both production and sales.
Among them, the production and sales were 425,000 and 408,000, respectively, a decrease of nearly 50% month-on-month, and a single-digit decline year-on-year.
This has also triggered concerns inside and outside the industry about the weakness of the new energy vehicle market and overcapacity.
In this regard, Miao Wei said that looking back at history, every time the subsidy policy is withdrawn, there will be a period of market depression, but it is expected that the impact of the policy withdrawal this year is generally controllable. On the one hand, the subsidy amount is small, and on the other hand, the policy withdrawal has long been expected.
At the same time, Miao Wei also hopes that the vehicle purchase tax reduction and exemption policy will continue for a period of time.
He called on relevant departments to issue similar policies in advance to make preparations for enterprises and markets.
"I predict that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is likely to exceed 30% this year, that is, annual sales of 9 million vehicles, and it is possible to reach 50% by 2030."
At the same time, Dong Yang, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 and chairman of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, also expressed a similar view. He believes that the consumption of new energy vehicles will be overdrawn in 2022, but it will not affect 2023. performance throughout the year.
Electric vehicles are still in the stage of high-speed growth, and the large output will also better promote the balance between supply and demand.
Regarding the hotly debated issue of overcapacity of new energy vehicles, Miao Wei said that my country's auto sales have remained at around 26 million for many years, and new energy vehicles are rapidly replacing traditional fuel vehicles. long substitution relationship.
On the whole, new energy vehicles do not have the problem of overcapacity. What really needs to be considered is how to convert excess fuel vehicle production capacity into new energy vehicle production capacity.
The reporter of "Securities Daily" learned that there are rumors in the market recently that the management of car manufacturing qualifications will be further tightened. The capacity utilization rate of enterprises is generally lower than 5%, and projects such as Sailin, Byton, and Bojun have become unfinished projects.
In this regard, Miao Wei stated clearly that the impulse of state-owned enterprises, local governments and industrial funds to over-invest and expand in order to attract investment should be restrained.
He suggested that the local government should not be a major shareholder or lead the vote.
Miao Wei believes that how to prevent excess production capacity should be discussed on a case-by-case basis.
"For companies that already have qualifications for new energy vehicles, when launching new production capacity, they should examine the current capacity utilization rate; for new forces that have never built cars, the auto industry can learn from the registration system reform introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Gradually transition to registration, the market will enter and exit to form the survival of the fittest, and the car manufacturing qualification cannot be turned into a 'shell' of the stock market." Miao Wei said.
The relationship between supply and demand is gradually easing
The "Securities Daily" reporter observed that since last year, the auto industry has generally resisted the impact of multiple unfavorable factors, but raw material problems such as "shortage of cores and expensive electricity" continue to erode industry profits, causing various auto companies to complain.
In view of the recent further tightening of restrictions on the export of chip products to China by the United States, Miao Wei believes that this will have an adverse impact on the development of China's semiconductor industry, but it will also cause greater damage to the semiconductor industry and enterprises in these countries and regions. It will ultimately harm the interests of global consumers.
In Miao Wei's view, as the world's largest semiconductor market, the Chinese market is active in innovation, diverse in demand, and highly receptive to new technologies, which can fully provide a good environment for technological innovation and market development for global semiconductor companies.
As for the continued "high fever" of lithium battery prices, Ouyang Minggao analyzed that the main reason for the rise in lithium prices in 2022 is strong demand and short supply.
Factors such as supply delays and the impact of the epidemic have led to a sharp rise in prices.
Next, the growth rate of demand for power batteries will drop significantly, and the tense demand situation will also be greatly eased.
From the perspective of the supply side, the mining capacity of lithium ore, represented by Australia, has accelerated. In the long run, the reserves of lithium resources are sufficient and the mineable volume continues to increase.
At the same time, the price increase has brought opportunities for the battery material recycling industry. It is expected that battery materials will enter the stage of large-scale recycling after 2030.
Ouyang Minggao believes that the total amount of electric vehicles and power batteries in my country is already quite large, and the growth rate will drop sharply in the future.
In 2023, the growth rate of electric vehicles is expected to drop from nearly 100% in 2022 to 30% to 40%, and the total production and sales are expected to be 10 million.
The growth rate of total lithium-ion battery shipments in 2023 is expected to decrease from nearly 100% in 2022 to about 50%, with total shipments approaching 1 billion kWh.
The reporter noticed that the price of lithium has recently returned to the range of 450,000 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fall further to around 350,000 yuan/ton to 400,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year.
Ouyang Minggao believes that in the next few years, lithium prices are expected to continue to return to a reasonable equilibrium price, which is expected to be around 200,000 yuan/ton.
Overall, lithium supply issues will not affect the sustainable development of new energy vehicles.