At the end of 2022, Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 2.1% compared to the previous year, to 151.46 trillion rubles.

Such a preliminary assessment on Monday, February 20, was presented by the Federal State Statistics Service.

As follows from the materials of the department, the decline that occurred was less than in the pandemic 2020 (2.7%) and the crisis 2009 (7.8%).

Moreover, the economy managed to go through a difficult period much better than expected.

For example, in September, the Ministry of Economic Development estimated a possible decline in GDP at the end of the year at 2.9%, and in the latest forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the figure was 2.5%.

World Bank experts allowed the indicator to decrease by 3.5%, and experts from the International Monetary Fund - by 2.2%.

Moreover, in the spring of 2022, a number of analysts did not rule out the possibility of a collapse by 10-20% at once.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin previously noted, in 2022, an unprecedented sanctions aggression was launched against the country, aimed at “crushing our economy in a short time.”

However, this calculation was not justified, the head of state stressed.

“I think that for many - those who tried and are trying to create problems for us - it was unexpected how effectively we counter the threats created for us in the field of the economy and in certain industries.

As it turned out, the financial system is working, and all industries are working, all service industries are working - they work rhythmically, without failures, ”Putin noted.

According to him, at first some industries really faced difficulties against the backdrop of external pressure.

But today the most difficult stage has been passed, the Russian leader is sure.

  • © Mikhail Metzel

Recall that since the end of February 2022, the United States, the European Union and a number of other states continue to introduce ever new economic restrictions against Russia.

This is how the West reacts to the conduct of a military special operation in Ukraine.

In total, more than 14 thousand restrictions are now in effect against Moscow (11.3 thousand of them have been introduced since February 22), as evidenced by the materials of the global database for tracking sanctions Castellum.AI.

Anti-Russian measures, in particular, affected the banking industry, the energy sector, aviation and trade.

Along with this, almost half of the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves (worth $300 billion) were frozen, and many international companies announced their withdrawal from the Russian Federation.

Nevertheless, the already existing experience of sanctions in 2014 in many ways allowed Russia to quickly adapt to new conditions.

As a result, the economic downturn was not as deep as originally expected, Olga Lebedinskaya, associate professor at the Department of Statistics at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, said in a comment to RT.

“Stability was also maintained by the actions of the Central Bank, despite criticism of the regulator.

In addition, a positive current account balance of payments (the difference between the flow of money into the country and the outflow of capital abroad. -

RT

) and state control over prices for socially significant goods stabilized inflation.

This made it possible to quickly reduce the key rate after its sharp increase, and credit flows to the private sector began to recover,” Lebedinskaya noted.

As the specialist emphasized, in addition to normalizing the situation in the financial system, the country's leadership managed to maintain stability both in the macroeconomics and at the level of industries and regions.

At the same time, targeted measures of assistance to large enterprises became the most popular, the expert added.

A similar point of view is shared by Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Research and the Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

According to him, the measures taken by the Bank of Russia did not allow the ruble to collapse for a long time, and the government provided significant support to business, which had a positive impact on the economy as a whole.

“It is worth noting that many companies turned out to be adaptable to stress and, thanks to management schemes that were successfully and timely implemented, avoided a major collapse.

At the same time, the authorities actively gave subsidies and preferential loans to businesses to save jobs, and economic growth and production largely depend on employment.

As a result, a number of industries were even able to become profitable in 2022,” Ostapkovich said.

growth drivers

According to Rosstat, in 2022, high growth rates were recorded in such areas as agriculture and forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming (by 6.6% compared to 2021), construction (by 5%), as well as hotel and restaurant business (by 4.3%).

In addition, positive dynamics was noted in financial and insurance activities (by 2.8%), mining (by 0.4%) and a number of other areas.

The most notable decline was shown by wholesale and retail trade (by 12.7%) and manufacturing industry (by 2.4%).

However, already in 2023, these industries can become drivers of economic recovery, says Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute for Applied Economic Research of the RANEPA.

“Business for the most part managed to readjust in time, find new markets and suppliers of its products.

That is, enterprises did not stop the production of goods due to sanctions.

In addition, the economy was positively affected by the growth of public investment in infrastructure and construction projects.

Also, almost until the end of 2022, oil prices were quite high and Russia received significant export earnings with fairly low imports,” Abramov added.

According to Georgy Ostapkovich, the defense industry, working for the needs of the special operation, is also making a significant contribution to the GDP.

In the current environment, experts do not exclude that this year the economy will return to a positive trajectory.

Thus, according to the IMF forecast, in 2023 the volume of the country's gross domestic product may increase by 0.3%, while the Central Bank is allowed to grow by 1%.

“In the next few years, we will see recovery growth, and by the end of 2025, I think we will be able to fully recoup the losses of 2022.

Most importantly, during this time we need to create a technological base and increase investment in human capital.

Having formed such a basis, we will quickly be able to make a breakthrough, ”concluded Ostapkovich.