On December 31, 2022, the 13-year new energy vehicle purchase subsidy (hereinafter referred to as "national subsidy") policy will be terminated.
How will China's new energy vehicle industry continue to develop after subsidies are withdrawn?
What countermeasures are many car companies taking?
How to coordinate the new consumption support policies?
Recently, our reporter interviewed this.
Helping new energy vehicles "manufacturable", "sellable" and "usable"
Compared with fuel vehicles, China's new energy vehicles started late and have a relatively weak foundation, and they have enjoyed financial subsidies for a long period of time.
Why do you want to "eat small stoves" for new energy vehicles?
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with our reporter that China's new energy vehicle industry in its infancy has problems such as weak product endurance, narrow practical use, and single vehicle types. The level of facilities is low, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to expand production is not strong. It is urgent to solve the problems of "manufacturing", "selling" and "using" through policy incentives.
The history of Guobu can be traced back to 2009.
At the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the "Ten Cities, Thousands of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration, Promotion and Application Project". Subsidies are provided for the consumption of energy vehicles.
In 2012, the State Council issued the "Development Plan for Energy Conservation and New Energy Automobile Industry (2012-2020)", which further clarified the purchase subsidy policy.
After 2018, the state subsidy policy has entered a period of adjustment, and the "threshold" for new energy passenger vehicle mileage subsidies has continued to rise, promoting the industry's high-end development.
On the one hand, new energy passenger vehicles with low battery life no longer enjoy the subsidy policy; on the other hand, the requirements for battery energy density and vehicle energy consumption are gradually becoming stricter, and these are regarded as important factors affecting the amount of subsidies for single vehicles.
On December 31, 2022, according to the notice issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments at the end of 2021, the national subsidy policy will be officially terminated, and vehicles registered after that day will no longer be subsidized, which marks the "plug-in hybrid vehicle 4800 yuan / vehicle , 12,600 yuan/vehicle for pure electric vehicles, the national financial subsidy has officially withdrawn.
Before leaving the market, the state subsidy has experienced many "retreats": in 2016, the purchase subsidy policy began to be implemented nationwide, and the financial subsidy adopted a retreat mechanism.
As of 2018, under different driving ranges, the subsidy for a single pure electric passenger car has dropped by about 50%.
After 2018, the subsidy for some pure electric passenger vehicles with a relatively low driving range will gradually drop to zero, and the subsidies for other models will also decrease year by year.
State subsidies have played an important role in promoting the development of the new energy automobile industry:
——The output and market sales of new energy vehicles have increased year after year.
From 2009 to 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has increased from 5,294 to 6.887 million, and the production and sales volume has ranked first in the world for nearly 8 years.
——The vitality of market entities is stimulated, and independent brands thrive.
According to data from Qichacha, from 2013 to 2022, the annual registration of new energy vehicle-related companies in China jumped from about 5,100 to 239,400, an increase of 47 times.
As of the beginning of 2023, the number of existing new energy vehicle-related companies in China will reach 605,800, and independent brands such as BYD, Xiaopeng, and Weilai are highly recognized by consumers.
Xu Haidong said that the state subsidy represents China's firm determination to support the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry. In favor of products with high battery life, high quality, and high safety, the State Subsidy has played a pivotal role in the realization of 'changing lanes and overtaking' in China's new energy vehicle industry."
In Xu Haidong's view, the State Subsidy not only enables China's new energy vehicle industry to be "manufacturable", "sellable" and "usable", but also helps new energy vehicles to "make well", products "sell well", and consumption Those who "use well".
"Subsidies have increased the popularity and consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles, accelerated the progress of related technologies such as batteries and motors, and also promoted the simultaneous development of charging infrastructure construction and the industry itself. By guiding social capital into the new energy track, the industry will It has found a balance between 'chicken first' and 'egg first' between charging facilities." Xu Haidong said.
The time for subsidy withdrawal is ripe, and the temporary impact on auto companies is limited and controllable
According to data released by the Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the Passenger Association), in January this year, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 332,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 48.3%.
Some people worry that the auto market can adapt to the "weaning" of national subsidies?
Xu Haidong explained that behind the temporary cold sales data at the beginning of the year, there are many factors such as the early Spring Festival and the early release of demand at the end of last year, which should not be completely attributed to the withdrawal of the state subsidy.
The impact of "weaning" on enterprises is limited and staged, and the new energy vehicle market that has entered the "post-national subsidy era" is expected to achieve a smooth transition.
According to analysis, from entry to exit, subsidies have promoted full competition among market players and survival of the fittest to a certain extent.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation of Passenger Passengers, believes that in the process from the initial speculative participation of new energy auto companies to the full entry of powerful companies to the accelerated withdrawal of subsidies, they have achieved the effect of eliminating the false and preserving the true, and the waves have washed away the sand.
Industry insiders analyzed that this shows that the expansion of the market itself is sufficient to offset the negative impact of the subsidy decline, and the impact on auto companies is controllable.
In addition, from policy-driven to market-driven, the policy also allows time for enterprises to adapt and adjust.
In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a notice requiring a gentle decline in intensity and pace. The subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
All major car companies have included the shock factors brought about by the decline of financial subsidies in their corporate strategic planning, and have deployed adequate countermeasures in terms of capital, technology, and marketing in advance.
Previously, the proportion of subsidies for best-selling models of new energy vehicles has dropped to a relatively low level.
Since 2017, the average share of subsidies in the selling price of best-selling models dropped from 35% to less than 10%, a drop of nearly 25 percentage points in five years.
"The withdrawal of the state subsidy has been clear for a long time, and the company is prepared for it." Xu Haidong said.
In 2021, the subsidy intensity will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2020, but the number of approved subsidized vehicles will increase by nearly 7 times compared with 2020, reaching 1.569 million.
Xu Haidong said that during the gradual decline of subsidies in recent years, the explosive growth of market sales shows that consumers have fully recognized new energy vehicles, and the expansion of the market itself is enough to offset the impact of the decline.
"The subsidy is cooling down, but the market is heating up, which shows that the timing of exit is appropriate." Xu Haidong believes that from the perspective of market development, industrial chain supply chain maturity, consumer habits and other conditions, the time for subsidy exit is ripe.
"On the one hand, financial subsidies for specific industries are mostly phased, and need to be withdrawn in time after marketization reaches a certain level. On the other hand, from the perspective of the main body enjoying subsidies, as the subsidy effect is transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain, The benefit space for consumers, battery companies and car companies in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain continues to shrink, but the price of raw materials has risen, which also shows that it is time to withdraw subsidies." Xu Haidong said.
Consumer coupons are issued in many places, and the consumption of new energy vehicles is still good
After the withdrawal of the national subsidy, various localities continue to introduce policies to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, which is expected to play a positive role in "giving a ride".
Putting out consumer coupons——On February 1, Haishu District, Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province launched a Lantern Festival car purchase coupon activity. Individuals who participate in the event to buy new cars will receive coupons ranging from 1,500 yuan to 10,000 yuan depending on the price of the car.
Coupons can be consumed in some shopping malls, restaurants and other units in Haishu District.
After Zhengzhou City, Henan Province launched the 2023 Automobile Renewal Season event on January 5, it announced on February 3 that the deadline for the event would be extended to March 10, and an additional 100 million yuan in auto consumption coupons would be issued on top of the original 50 million yuan.
In addition, Shandong Province, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province and other places are also actively issuing new energy vehicle consumption coupons. If you purchase a single pure electric new energy vehicle in the region, you can get a consumption coupon of more than 3,000 yuan.
Stimulate demand for replacement——On January 29, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Improving Confidence, Expanding Demand, Stabilizing Growth and Promoting Development" and proposed to continue the implementation of new energy vehicle replacement subsidies. A financial subsidy of 10,000 yuan per vehicle will be given to those who buy a passenger car that is registered in Shanghai and meets the relevant standards and purchases a pure electric vehicle.
Industry insiders pointed out that although the state subsidy has been withdrawn, other favorable factors for the consumption of new energy vehicles are still there, such as license plate processing, vehicle purchase tax, exemption from restrictions on certain cities, etc. Frequently, it still has a strong appeal to consumers.
The policy support on the demand side has continued. What is the response of enterprises on the supply side?
In the short term, rising raw material prices combined with the impact of the withdrawal of subsidies may cause companies to face cost pressures and even market reshuffles.
The reporter combed and found that since the end of last year, some leading companies in the industry have raised the guide prices of some of their new energy models.
Some foreign brands bucked the trend and lowered prices to seize market share.
The self-owned brand “New Forces” represented by Xiaopeng and Weilai recently announced a price cut, triggering concerns about a new round of price wars in the industry.
Xu Haidong believes that new energy auto companies should firmly grasp the key point of consumer demand, continue to make efforts in independent innovation, quality control, service improvement, product export, ecological construction, etc., seize the opportunity of this round of industry restructuring, and effectively Address concerns such as mileage anxiety among consumers.
At the same time, the government should ensure the safety and stability of the supply chain of the new energy automobile industry chain, such as improving the price monitoring mechanism for raw materials such as lithium ore.
In addition, Xu Haidong also suggested that after the withdrawal of state subsidies, the support policies for the new energy vehicle industry can be improved in terms of tax incentives and tax system design, such as balancing the tax burden ratio of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, optimizing and adjusting the purchase of new energy vehicles Tax policies, etc., seeking a "win-win" for the country and the industry.
"People's Daily Overseas Edition" February 21, 2023, Page 11