On Friday, February 17, the Russian currency shows mixed dynamics on the Moscow Exchange.

At the beginning of trading, the dollar rose by 0.59% and briefly reached the level of 75.3 rubles.

The last time a similar value could be observed was April 25, 2022.

The cost of the euro at the same time grew by 0.23%, to 80.13 rubles, and the yuan - by 0.35%, to 10.9 rubles.

However, in the second half of the day, the indicators began to decline.

Thus, the value of the dollar fell to 74.5 rubles, the euro to 79.31 rubles, and the yuan to 10.9 rubles.

Noticeable fluctuations in rates have been going on for several weeks.

Moreover, since the beginning of the month, the national currency has on average fallen in price against the American, European and Chinese by more than 5%.

One of the reasons for the observed dynamics was the reduction in the balance of payments surplus, according to experts interviewed by RT.

Let us explain that we are talking about the difference between the inflow of foreign currency into the country and its outflow abroad.

Back in 2022, dollars, euros and yuan received from exports went to Russia in significant volumes, while the interest of companies in foreign banknotes sharply weakened amid sanctions risks and falling imports.

This state of affairs contributed to the strengthening of the ruble, but now the situation in trade has begun to change.

“Trade balance data indicates a decline in exports in monetary terms.

At the same time, imports are recovering, which creates additional demand for the currency, ”Ivan Manaenko, director of the analytical department of Veles Capital Investment Company, told RT.

As a result, according to the Central Bank, in January 2023, Russia received only $8 billion more foreign currency than went abroad.

Compared to the same period in 2022, the indicator decreased by almost 2.4 times.

“That is, our current account balance of payments is still positive, but it has declined sharply.

To some extent, this has become a destabilizing factor for the ruble, ”Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikacapital, explained in a conversation with RT.

Income benchmark

Against the backdrop of a decrease in the profits of Russian companies from the supply of goods abroad, federal budget revenues at the beginning of the year turned out to be lower than expected.

This situation put additional pressure on the ruble, Alexander Potavin, an analyst at FG Finam, is sure.

“In order to replenish budget revenues, the Ministry of Finance has been increasing the sale of foreign currency from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) since the beginning of February.

However, this does not help the ruble to strengthen, ”said the interlocutor of RT.

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According to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, in January 2023 the country's budget was executed with a deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles.

The increase in spending in the ministry was explained by the prompt conclusion of government contracts and the payment of advances on some contracts.

The decline in revenue, in turn, was largely due to a reduction in cash receipts from the sale of oil and gas, the department added.

In addition to selling foreign currency from the NWF, the Ministry of Finance attracts borrowings to cover budget spending.

At the same time, the government is discussing with big business a one-time voluntary contribution to the treasury.

It is assumed that the initiative will affect only those enterprises that have received super-profits in recent times, and will bring the budget about 300 billion rubles.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said this on Friday in an interview with Russia 24 TV channel.

In addition, the day before, the State Duma approved a law on a new method for calculating oil prices when taxing companies.

It is assumed that due to the initiative, business will supply raw materials abroad with smaller discounts and will begin to allocate more money to the budget.

As a result, according to the Ministry of Finance, in 2023 the treasury will receive an additional 600 billion rubles.

“With the advent of spring, it may become more clear how the Russian oil industry has adjusted to external sanctions.

However, the fact that the government has decided to legally reduce the discount on Russian oil is likely to lead to a greater filling of the budget, which is why the ruble exchange rate may receive support,” Alexander Potavin emphasized.

Standby mode

At the same time, according to Potavin, at the moment, financial market participants are somewhat worried about reports that the European Union is preparing new restrictions against Moscow.

According to TASS, the EU countries want to have time to introduce the tenth package of anti-Russian sanctions by February 24, the anniversary of the start of the Russian military special operation in Ukraine.

“This time, Alfa-Bank, Rosbank, Tinkoff may be included in the sanctions list.

Restrictions can also be introduced against the NWF and reinsurers of ships carrying our oil.

The expectation that these measures will be included negatively affects both the dynamics of the Russian stock and bond market and the ruble exchange rate,” Potavin said.

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According to experts, on the eve of European sanctions, the market is experiencing excessive nervousness.

However, immediately after the introduction of restrictions, the national currency may strengthen, as investors will have more clarity about the prospects for the Russian economy, analysts do not exclude.

“As is often the case, while waiting for the introduction of restrictions, Russian assets fell in price, but the publication of specific sanctions measures reduced fears of more negative consequences.

As a result, investors switched to purchases, ”Evgeny Mironyuk, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, recalled in an interview with RT.

According to the expert, the approaching peak of tax payments to the budget can also provide support to the ruble.

A similar point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the founder of the School of Practical Investment Fyodor Sidorov.

“Next week is tax season.

Exporters will transfer taxes and excises to the budget, selling foreign exchange earnings for this.

Therefore, we can expect some strengthening of the national currency against the American and European ones - within 1-1.5 rubles in each pair, ”Sidorov suggested.

In general, the experts surveyed do not expect a serious weakening of the Russian currency in the foreseeable future.

According to Yevgeny Mironyuk's forecast, by the end of February the dollar exchange rate may change in the range of 71.5-79 rubles, the euro exchange rate - 75.6-84 rubles, and the yuan exchange rate - 10.35-11.4 rubles.

In the future, the fluctuation corridor may become narrower, Alexander Potavin believes.

According to him, the targets for the value of the American currency will be the levels of 75-77 rubles, for the European - 81-83 rubles, and for the Chinese - 11.3-11.5 rubles.

Ivan Manaenko adheres to a similar assessment.

“In principle, we can say that we have achieved comfortable exchange rates for our budget.

After February, the level of 75-80 rubles per dollar will be balanced with the current geopolitics.

The euro exchange rate is more mobile and depends on the dollar.

For the yuan, the maximum threshold is 11 rubles so far,” Manaenko concluded.