The "warmth" of the property market is emerging

　　The "warmth" of the property market is emerging (Rui Finance)

　　With the beginning of the new year, the real estate market in some places is also becoming more and more lively.

On February 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January.

The data shows that the number of cities where the sales price of commercial housing has risen month-on-month has increased. Among them, the sales price of commercial housing in first-tier cities has turned upwards, and the decline in second- and third-tier cities has slowed down. The real estate market is gradually releasing "warmth".

　　Prices of new houses in 36 cities rose month-on-month

　　"In January, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 36 and 13 cities where the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing rose month-on-month, respectively, an increase of 21 and 6 from the previous month." Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics According to the analysis of Sheng Guoqing.

　　Specifically, in January, the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities both turned positive, respectively changing from flat last month to an increase of 0.2%, and from a decrease of 0.5% last month to an increase of 0.4%, showing a recovery trend. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai is outstanding.

　　The sales prices of commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities showed a trend of narrowing month-on-month declines.

For example, the sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities changed from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%; the sales price of second-hand housing decreased by 0.3% from the previous month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

　　"In January, the overall decline in housing prices narrowed, and the number of rising cities increased. This is a manifestation of the recovery at the bottom of the market." Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that market recovery is driven by two factors. One is the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and residents' wait-and-see sentiment Second, the optimization of restrictive regulatory policies in the industry and the reduction of mortgage interest rates will help reduce the cost of purchasing houses and promote the release of housing demand.

　　Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project team of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Economic and Economic Strategy, said in an interview with our reporter that overall, urban commodity housing prices were in the process of stopping their decline in January.

This is not only affected by the Spring Festival effect and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control, but also reflects the positive role of policies in promoting the release of rigid and improved housing demand.

　　Hot first- and second-tier cities lead the demand

　　In Shanghai, the total sales of the top ten projects in the new housing market in January reached 37 billion yuan, becoming the "top sales" city in the country, and far higher than the 27.468 billion yuan in 2022 and 19.2 billion yuan in 2021; The single-day transaction volume has exceeded 200 sets, and the number of buyers and sellers, which reflect the market's popularity, has also continued to rise... Since the beginning of this year, the real estate market in hot cities has shown a recovery trend.

　　From the perspective of price signals, first- and second-tier cities have recovered significantly.

Among the cities with rising housing prices, Shanghai and Hefei led the 70 cities in January with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% in new house price increases; followed by Ningbo, Chengdu, and Zhanjiang, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%.

In terms of second-hand housing, housing prices in Beijing topped the list, followed by Shenzhen, Xi'an, Nanjing, Chengdu, and Shanghai.

　　Liu Lijie believes that first-tier cities and core second-tier cities take the lead in repairing, which is driven by urban fundamentals.

"First-tier cities and core second-tier cities have better fundamentals in terms of economy, population, and industry, and housing demand is highly supportive. Favorable policies are more likely to produce results in such cities."

　　"Generally speaking, the market changes in first- and second-tier hotspot cities are also ahead of third- and fourth-tier cities. This is a common law. The characteristics of the fundamentals determine the long-term trend of the property market in each region." Zou Linhua said.

　　Relevant analysts at the China Index Research Institute also said that overall, the current real estate market sentiment has improved, but it is more reflected in some core first- and second-tier cities. Most urban home buyers are still in a wait-and-see mood, and market recovery still takes time.

　　Market sentiment is still rising

　　Since the beginning of the year, the "hotness" of the real estate market has been high.

　　Prior to this, many provinces and cities held economic work conferences and housing construction work conferences, and included stabilizing real estate investment and boosting housing consumption as key tasks in the new year.

On February 10, the People's Bank of China proposed in the 2023 financial market work conference to implement 16 policy measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, actively provide financial services for guaranteed delivery of buildings, increase financial support for housing leasing, and promote The real estate industry is undergoing a smooth transition to a new development model.

　　A batch of policy adjustments has been rolled out intensively in various places.

According to incomplete statistics, nearly 30 cities have adjusted the first-home loan interest rate this year.

As of January 31 this year, among the 103 cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute, a total of 30 cities had first-home loan interest rates below 4.1%.

In addition, many places have introduced regulatory policies such as optimizing purchase restrictions, reducing down payments, subsidizing taxes and fees, and increasing loan lines.

　　"The current mortgage interest rate is at a relatively low level since the development of the commercial housing market. Lowering the first-home loan interest rate and relaxing the purchase restriction policy have a direct effect on releasing rigid and improved housing demand and increasing the enthusiasm of home buyers." Zou Linhua said.

　　Judging from the forward-looking indicators, the market sentiment is still rising.

According to data released by a number of market institutions, the market volume has continued to pick up since February.

From February 1st to 14th, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing in the key 50 cities of Keike increased by about 90% compared with the same period in January. "The owners expect to continue to improve, and it is expected that the property market prices will further stabilize in the later period." Liu Lijie said.

　　In Zou Linhua's view, the property market has a higher probability of seasonal recovery, but whether it can last for a long time remains to be seen.

"The performance of the real estate market in the future will depend on the state of economic development, the growth of residents' income, and the continuation of real estate-related policies such as finance," he said.

　　Li Jie