The Paper reporter Hu Zhiting

　　"I stand on a high hill, looking from a distance, there is a green wave, and the sea is vast." Many young people who bought a house a few years ago can more and more understand Zhang Huimei's "Standing on a High Hill".

　　Compared with the interest rate of 5% or more than 6% in previous years, the interest rate of first-home loans in many places has fallen below 4% and is constantly dropping.

Early loan repayment seems to be a game between the borrower and the bank. The former hopes to repay the loan as soon as possible to reduce costs, while the latter hopes that the former will pay back slowly or not.

Bought a house when interest rates were high and didn't hesitate then

　　Information related to mortgage interest rates is all touching.

Recently, news of the central bank’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission’s new policy on first-home interest rates, extension of the repayment age, delayed retirement, medical insurance reform, and negative population growth have followed one after another. Whether it is directly related to housing or not, it will remind people of housing loans. Not too high a mortgage rate.

　　"2018, 5.88%", "2019, 5.83%", "2020, 5.4%", "2021, 6.37%", when many young people who bought houses in the past few years were interviewed by The Paper, they all thought that they were in the interest rate I bought a house at a high point, but I never hesitated at that time.

　　"All young people feel that they have bought at a high point. In that booming year, they mistakenly think that the world belongs to them. When young people empty their pockets, they find that their dreams are worthless. Loans are not terrible, but Loans and layoffs came almost in tandem.” Xiao Zhang, a post-80s who bought a house in Nanjing, Jiangsu in 2019, told The Paper.

　　Xiao Zhang bluntly said that their generation is greatly influenced by European and American culture. They grew up watching "Friends".

Except for the 2008 economic crisis, they have hardly encountered any obstacles, and they are the most daring generation in history, until this wave began to be educated.

First home loan interest rate drops sharply

　　Since 2022, mortgage loan interest rates in some areas have been reduced one after another.

In May, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced that they would lower the lower limit of the interest rate for newly issued first-home loans, from not lower than the loan market quotation rate (LPR) of the corresponding term to not lower than the corresponding term LPR minus 20 basis points; The above LPR exceeded expectations and was lowered by 15 basis points from April to 4.45%.

This is also the largest reduction in LPR over a five-year period since the establishment of the new LPR mechanism.

Since then, the first-home loan interest rate in many places has been as low as 4.25%.

　　Entering 2023, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the first-set housing loan interest rate policy, specifying cities where the sales price of new commercial housing has declined for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year, and the local first-set housing loans can be maintained, reduced or canceled in stages Lower bound on interest rate policy.

What followed was another round of "interest rate cuts" for housing loans. In many places, the interest rate for first-home loans has fallen below 4%, to 3.7% or even 3.6%.

　　"What does a mortgage mean to young people? In fact, it means more opportunities and less freedom." Post-90s Xiaowen told The Paper that if she had a mortgage, she might think so.

In 2020, she bought a house in a second-tier city for nearly 4 million yuan in full, and currently has no mortgage.

　　Xiao Wu, who also works in a fifth-tier city, told Peng Mei News that the local housing prices are low, and his parents paid for the down payment. No mortgage worries.

Now that they are married, the provident fund of the couple can actually support buying another house.

　　But most young people are not so lucky.

Over the past few years, housing loan interest rates in various cities have been declining. Zhengzhou, where the housing loan interest rate exceeded 6%, now has a 3.8% first-home loan interest rate.

If the loan is 1 million yuan, calculated on the basis of equal principal and interest and a 30-year period, the interest rate difference of 2.5 percentage points means that there is a difference of more than 1,500 yuan in the monthly payment.

It is not easy to repay loans in advance, pay attention to whether the interest rate of stock loans will be cut

　　It can be seen that the interest rate of existing mortgages is too high, or the main reason why people repay their loans in advance.

A number of people born in the 90s told The Paper that if they had some money on hand, they would still be willing to repay the loan in advance. The interest rate difference is too great.

However, repaying the loan early is not easy.

　　As sung in "The Lonely Brave" that is played everywhere in the streets and alleys: "Love your tattered clothes, but dare to block the gun of fate. Love you so much like me, the gaps are the same." What is missing?

money.

　　Xiao Cheng, born in 1985, said bluntly when talking about whether he would repay the loan in advance, and did not pay attention because he had no money.

　　"I don't think the mortgage has any special meaning to me, but if I have money, I will definitely pay it back in advance." The post-90s generation was less than 5.88% when they bought their first house in Hefei. He bluntly said that the current interest rate is too "backstab" (ed. Press: "A blow in the back", this word comes from the game, and it also means that after buying the game for a period of time, the game's price is reduced or even free, which is equivalent to stabbing the player in the back. Had to make an appointment at the bank, and had to be tough.

If the bank procrastinates, it is not afraid of trouble to call and complain to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, so that it can be made earlier, and the queue will not be half a year later.

　　On February 10, data released by the People's Bank of China showed that RMB loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 922.7 billion yuan year-on-year, setting a record for credit issuance in a single month since statistics were available.

However, from a structural point of view, loans to enterprises and institutions performed strongly, while loans to the residential sector continued to weaken, accounting for only 5% of all new loans, indicating that the phenomenon of continuous deleveraging in the residential sector is still continuing.

　　The central bank’s survey of urban depositors in the fourth quarter of 2022 shows that in the fourth quarter of last year, the income perception index, income confidence index, and employment expectation index of 20,000 urban depositors in 50 cities across the country all declined month-on-month.

The income perception index in the fourth quarter of last year was 43.8%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Among them, 10.8% of the residents believed that their income had "increased", a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, 65.9% of the residents believed that their income was "basically unchanged", a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 23.3% of the residents believed that their income had "decreased". An increase of 5.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The income confidence index was 44.4%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous quarter.

　　Unstable income expectations, declining investment income, and multiple cuts in LPR have made more and more people pay attention to early loan repayment.

But the loans of these people are all existing housing loans.

Whether the stock mortgage interest rate can be adjusted is a slightly sensitive topic.

Previously, many people in the banking industry made it clear that it was impossible to adjust the interest rate of stock housing loans.

Now, some people in the banking industry told The Paper that the past few months have been relatively "vacuum", and wait for a few more months to see if there will be relevant policies.

Some experts and scholars also wrote that the adjustment conditions for stock mortgage interest rates are ripe.

　　However, for banks, whether it is repaying loans in advance or adjusting the interest rate of existing mortgages, it will cause their own operating pressure.

Regarding the current prepayment of loans, a person from a major state-owned bank told The Paper that housing loan income is a long-term and stable interest-bearing asset for banks. If they all repay early, it will affect the bank's long-term asset planning. .

　　Some people in the banking industry told The Paper that banks do not want their mortgage business to decline too quickly, and they also do not want their locked-in earnings or high-quality assets with higher yields to be affected too much.

There are multiple risks in replacing housing loans with consumer loans and business loans

　　As far as the overall loan interest rate is concerned, the interest rates of corporate loans in various places have repeatedly hit new lows, and the interest rates of personal business loans and consumer loans have also remained low.

For example, in December last year, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans in Beijing was 3.09%, a new low since statistics; in December 2022, the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans in Shanghai was 3.59%, a decrease of 62 basis points from the end of the previous year.

Around the Spring Festival, the clerks of major banks began to promote personal credit loans and consumer loan business preferential activities, and the interest rate of many banks was lower than 4%.

　　Compared with the personal housing loan interest rate, although it has been lowered, there is still a gap between the interest rate of the above-mentioned loans, and the gap between the stock loan interest rate is even larger.

　　Out of consideration of current income, future work and economic expectations, Xiao Zhang has repaid the loan in advance many times in the past few years, and has repaid 1.75 million yuan in advance so far.

She told The Paper that the loan interest rate that year was 5.83%, but that year she could easily buy safe financial products with an annualized rate of 7%.

After 2020, the global economy has entered a new cycle, and news of layoffs has been overwhelming, so it is a little bit early to pay back now.

　　In view of the current downward trend of loan interest rates, some people have started the idea of ​​replacing housing loans with consumer loans and business loans.

It is precisely because of this that some intermediaries are also pushing this type of business, saying that they can save costs.

　　It should be noted that not everyone can bear the potential risks of converting housing loans to business loans and consumer loans.

What's more, when the intermediary helps to operate the relevant on-lending, its own appeal is to charge an intermediary fee.

However, although the business is not compliant, the current situation that the interest rate difference of mortgages is too large makes some people willing to take risks.

　　According to regulatory regulations, business loans and consumer loans will agree on a clear purpose of funds. After the "on-lending", if the bank finds that the lender has not used the relevant loan funds according to the agreed purpose, the bank can request early recovery of the loan based on the lender's breach of contract and will affect personal Credit etc.

In terms of terms, the term of housing loans is longer, while the term of consumer loans and business loans is shorter, and most require a one-time repayment of the principal.

If the lender has no stable source of funds and cannot repay the principal in time after the loan expires, there may be a risk of capital chain rupture.

　　In recent days, a piece of news that "the age limit of housing loans in Nanning can be extended to 80 years old" has rushed to the hot search list again, which also shows the advantages of housing loans in terms of loan terms.

According to related reports, some banks have officially adjusted the age limit for borrowers of personal housing mortgage loans from the original 70 years old to 80 years old. Even buyers who have reached the age of 50 can apply for a home loan with a maximum period of 30 years as long as they meet the loan conditions. .

　　However, at a time when demand for new and second-hand home loans is both weak, the news has received mixed responses from young people.

Some people commented on related microblogs, "Struggle until you are 80 years old for a suite?" More people are concerned about how to repay the loan in advance?

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