China Family Planning Association: Vigorously develop the housekeeping, elderly care, and childcare industries, and continue to empower and increase the efficiency of family construction
According to CCTV news on February 11, the third China Population and Development Forum hosted by the China Family Planning Association, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and the China Population and Development Research Center was held in Beijing on the 11th.
According to the survey, at present, my country is experiencing the dual changes of population and family, and the trend of low birth rate and family miniaturization is obvious.
The lifetime childless rate of women is rising rapidly, from 6.1% in 2015 to nearly 10% in 2020.
On February 13, the topic of #中国女孩生死儿童推达连接10%# became the second most searched topic on Weibo, attracting widespread attention.
The lifetime childless rate of women is rising rapidly
According to CCTV news reports, at present, the concept of marriage and childbirth of the younger generation is changing, and the trend of family size miniaturization is becoming increasingly obvious.
In 2020, the average household size in my country will drop to 2.62 persons, a decrease of 0.48 persons compared with 2010.
Delayed marriage and childbirth brought about by changes in family concepts have become the most important factor in the decline of my country's fertility level.
The age of first marriage of the working-age population in the country has been continuously delayed. The average age of first marriage for women has continued to rise from 22 in the 1980s to 26.3 in 2020, and the age of first childbirth has been postponed to 27.2.
The willingness of women of childbearing age to bear children continues to decline. The average number of children they plan to have in 2021 is 1.64, which is lower than 1.76 in 2017 and 1.73 in 2019. 1.48.
The number of women's existing children will drop from 1.63 in 2019 to 1.19 in 2022.
The lifetime childless rate of women is rising rapidly, from 6.1% in 2015 to nearly 10% in 2020.
In this regard, Wang Pei'an, secretary of the party group and executive vice president of the China Family Planning Association, said that a survey conducted by the China Population and Development Research Center in 2021 showed that less than 70% of women under the age of 35 believed that "life is complete only with children."
Japan, Singapore and other countries have implemented policies to encourage births since the last century, but their birth rates in 2020 are still at extremely low levels of 1.3 and 1.1 respectively.
Given the low level of fertility protection in our country, without the guidance of the concept of marriage and childbearing, it will be extremely difficult to improve the level of fertility.
Wang Pei'an suggested giving full play to the leading role of the new marriage and childbearing culture, advocating age-appropriate marriage and childbearing, eugenics and eugenics, and encouraging couples to share the responsibility of raising children.
Implement the annual leave system, gradually adjust and shorten working hours, implement a flexible working system, and provide more support for family life and leisure travel.
Vigorously develop the housekeeping, elderly care, and childcare industries, and continue to empower and increase the efficiency of family construction.
Improve the level of prenatal and postnatal care services, and continue to improve the quality of the birth population.
China's population negative growth for the first time in 61 years
In 2022, China's population situation will experience a historic turning point.
On January 17, 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the national population at the end of 2022 was 1,411.75 million, a decrease of 850,000 from the end of the previous year, the first negative growth in 61 years.
It was announced at a press conference on January 17 that by the end of 2022, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities and active servicemen, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners living in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities) will be 141,175 million, a decrease of 850,000 from the end of the previous year.
In terms of sub-items, the annual birth population was 9.56 million, and the birth rate was 6.77‰; the death population was 10.41 million, and the population death rate was 7.37‰; the natural population growth rate was -0.60‰.
In 2022, the birth population fell below 10 million for the first time, and the death population reached tens of millions for two consecutive years, which actually continued the trend of "one decrease and one increase" over the past few years.
On December 23 last year, at the release ceremony of the Social Security Forum of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the "China Pension Development Report 2022", Cai Fang, chief expert of the National High-end Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, proposed that China's total population will reach its peak in 2022, compared with It is expected to be much earlier, which also means that starting in 2023, our country will enter an era of negative population growth.
Population trends have long been traced.
Zhang Xuying, deputy director of the China Population and Development Research Center, previously analyzed that "my country has accumulated negative population growth inertia for more than 30 years."
Zhang Xuying pointed out that, stretching the time dimension, "my country's total fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level in 1992, and the internal population growth has turned from positive to negative. The population change is mainly driven by the negative population growth inertia of low fertility levels accumulated." The so-called "replacement level", that is, the total fertility rate is 2.1.
According to the seventh census data, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in my country in 2020 is only 1.3.
The population size is large, and the positive and negative inertia is also large.
However, this is like a moving car, which moves forward by inertia without stepping on the accelerator, and it will be a matter of time before it stops.
Based on the data of the seventh census, coupled with simulated calculations, Zhang Xuying mentioned that my country's negative population growth will show the law of "short-term mildness and gradual acceleration".
Specifically, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's annual birth population will fluctuate, and it is expected that after the "15th Five-Year Plan", it will enter a period of stable negative population growth.
According to the daily economic news