Our reporter Du Yumeng

  Since the National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference held on January 17 this year proposed that "existing houses can be sold if conditions permit", a reporter from the "Securities Daily" sorted out and found that in less than a month, there have been Shandong, Anhui, Henan, Sichuan, Guangdong and other places have made it clear that they will pilot the sale of existing homes.

  A number of industry experts interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter said that at present, the pre-sale system of commercial housing that has been implemented for many years has seen a turning point for policy adjustment.

In the long run, the sales of existing houses may replace the pre-sale of off-plan houses, but this change will not happen overnight. Too fast progress is not conducive to the stable development of the industry. It is expected that some provinces and cities will start pilot projects gradually from point to point, and then continue to expand the coverage.

  Out of the need to guarantee the delivery of the building and increase confidence

  "Stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and promoting transformation" is the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's clear focus on real estate work in 2023.

And in terms of promoting transformation, it further pointed out that "if conditions permit, existing home sales can be carried out, and those who continue to implement pre-sales must put the responsibility for fund supervision in place to prevent funds from escaping, and there must be no new risk of handover."

  Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the "Securities Daily" that since 2022, the property market has remained in a long-term downturn under the support of many policies on both sides of supply and demand. "Phenomenon, it has a negative impact on homebuyers' home buying sentiment, as well as the confidence and expectations of the property market.

It is precisely because of the need to guarantee the delivery of buildings and increase confidence that the original commercial housing pre-sale system ushered in an opportunity for reform.

  Different pre-sale methods are adopted for the sale of existing houses and the pre-sale system for commercial houses.

Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that since existing home sales can achieve what you see is what you get, they are undoubtedly more popular with consumers than off-plan properties. The scale and proportion of existing home sales in 2022 has been reflected above.

  According to data provided by the E-House Research Institute, in 2022, the sales area of ​​existing homes nationwide will be 160 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%.

Although the sales data of existing homes has dropped slightly, the performance is better when comparing the transaction area of ​​new commercial housing nationwide and the sales area of ​​off-plan housing nationwide.

That is to say, in 2022, the transaction area of ​​new commercial residential buildings nationwide will drop by 26.8% year-on-year, and the sales area of ​​off-plan housing nationwide will drop by 29.6% year-on-year.

At the same time, judging from the proportion of existing housing sales area (existing housing sales ratio = cumulative existing housing sales area at the beginning of the year/accumulative new commercial housing sales area at the beginning of the year), this indicator is 9.5% in June 2021, and then the indicator is generally on the rise. 10.4% by December 2021.

By December 2022, this indicator has reached 13.9%.

  In Ye Yindan's view, the sale of existing homes can not only protect the rights and interests of consumers from infringement, but also restrict the quality and delivery behavior of real estate companies, which is conducive to "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings and stabilizing people's livelihood."

Especially for real estate companies, the existing home sales system helps to standardize their capital use, project operations, business operations, etc., and prevent capital rupture and risk spread.

In general, further piloting of the existing home sales system on the basis of frequent support and encouragement policies on both sides of the supply and demand sides of the current property market will help to enhance market confidence and promote buyers who are waiting to enter the market faster, so as to promote demand recovery.

  It will take time to scale up

  Existing home sales are not new.

From the perspective of the provincial level, as early as March 2020, the "Notice on Establishing the Urban Subject Responsibility System for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market" issued by Hainan clearly stated that the existing home sales system should be implemented for commercial housing built on newly transferred land.

From the perspective of cities, some cities have set conditions for the sale of existing houses in the land transfer process.

  For example, the "Notice on Strengthening Precise Regulation and Stabilizing the Real Estate Market" issued by Fujian in 2018 mentioned that the pilot cities of Fuzhou and Xiamen gradually increased the conditions for the pre-sale of commercial housing in the land transfer until the sale of existing housing.

Judging from a land auction announcement issued by the Natural Resources and Planning Bureau of Yongtai County, Fuzhou City in 2022, it is decided that a piece of state-owned construction land that will be publicly sold on August 5, 2022 requires that the land be sold as an existing house.

This is also the first residential land in Fuzhou that requires "existing house sales".

In addition, Beijing, Chongqing, Shijiazhuang and other places also set conditions for land transfer or pre-sale of commercial housing, involving the sale of existing housing.

  Yan Yuejin, research director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that in recent years, there have been various pilots and innovations in the exploration of existing home sales models, but two different stages have also formed.

First, before the first half of 2021, all localities mainly clarified the existing house sales model in the land supply rules.

Its starting point is based on the work goal of "stabilizing housing prices, stabilizing land prices, and stabilizing expectations". By setting the existing home sales model, it can effectively promote the rational acquisition of land by real estate companies, promote the stability of land prices, and help the supply of high-quality housing.

The second is after the second half of 2021, mainly from the perspective of preventing the risk of unfinished buildings and preventing the spread of financial risks in real estate companies.

In general, the pace of reform of existing home sales is accelerating in various places, and this move will also help establish a new development model for real estate.

  Although the existing house sales model of "buy now and deliver" plays a positive role in protecting the rights and interests of home buyers and reducing risks in the real estate industry, Zhang Bo believes that the sale of existing houses means that the sales income must be met after the existing house conditions have been met. The requirements for corporate funds have virtually set up a "high threshold" to keep out real estate companies with high debt ratios and poor financial stability.

  Ye Yindan said that in the short term, it is expected that more cities, even provincial capitals, will join the pilot program of existing home sales, but the possibility of nationwide wide-scale promotion is relatively low, and more cities will continue to adopt the pre-sale system.

In addition to the expansion of the pilot scale of existing house sales, in order to ensure the smooth progress of the work of guaranteed delivery and the expected stability of the property market, it is expected that the regulatory policy on pre-sale funds of commercial housing will remain relatively strict. Adjust pre-sale fund supervision and pre-sale conditions.

The threshold for pre-sales may also be dynamically adjusted in light of the restoration of the capital chain of real estate companies in the future.

(Securities Daily)