Sino-Singapore Jingwei, February 15th (Wang Yongle) A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 31 provinces in January 2023.

Sino-Singapore Jingwei found that in January, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 22 provinces was higher than that of the previous month.

Among them, the highest increase in Hainan was 3.7%, and the lowest increase was 1.0% in Shaanxi.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics website

CPI increases in 22 regions expanded

Hainan has entered the "Three Era"

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in January 2023, the national CPI rose by 0.8% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year.

The year-on-year growth rate of CPI has risen and entered the "2 era" again, but it is slightly lower than market expectations.

  China-Singapore Jingwei combed and found that the CPI of 31 provinces rose year-on-year in January, and the provinces whose growth rate was higher or lower than the national level were 14 and 15, respectively, an increase of 1 compared with December last year.

In terms of growth rate, the growth rate of 22 provinces including Hainan was higher than that of last month, and the growth rate of 21 provinces expanded last month; 3 provinces were the same as last month, and 3 provinces were flat last month; There are 7 provinces whose gains narrowed.

  Specifically, 14 provinces, including Hainan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Hubei, Guangxi, Ningxia, Gansu, and Chongqing, saw their growth rate higher than the national level; Yunnan and Liaoning’s growth rate was the same as the national level; Beijing 15 provinces, including Shanxi, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Tianjin, Tibet, Anhui, Guizhou, Hunan, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and Shaanxi, saw growth rates lower than the national level, of which 11 provinces including Tianjin were in the "1 era".

  In addition, from the perspective of increase and decrease, Hainan continued to rank first, with an increase of 1.7 percentage points, and Chongqing had the largest decrease of 0.5 percentage points.

  Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, pointed out that pork prices fell sharply month-on-month in January, and vegetable prices rose sharply, turning from negative to positive year-on-year, which fully hedged the impact of the drop in pork prices and pushed up the year-on-year increase in CPI in January. the main reason.

How will CPI go in the future?

  Rising consumption has boosted CPI, and institutions generally expect inflation to be safe in the short term.

  Wang Qing believes that the purchase and storage of pork is about to start, and the pull-down effect of pork prices on CPI is expected to weaken.

However, considering that February last year was the Spring Festival, the base of vegetable prices was obviously high, which means that in February this year, vegetable prices will turn negative again year-on-year, which will lead to a narrowing of the year-on-year increase in food CPI.

At the same time, international oil prices soared sharply in February last year, and domestic refined oil prices in February this year will drop significantly year-on-year under the high base.

In addition, although the current consumption recovery momentum continues, the supply of goods and services in the market is sufficient, and there is limited room for price increases in the short term.

It is expected that the CPI in February will be around 1.9% year-on-year, which will continue to be at a moderate level.

  The Western Securities report also analyzed that the "dislocation of the Spring Festival" pushed up the CPI in January, which also means that the CPI in February will fall rapidly.

The recovery of consumption this year will drive up the prices of services such as tourism, but the current economy is still below the potential output level, and it is expected that there is little risk of an overall rise in CPI.

  The Yuekai Securities report believes that the year-on-year CPI in January may be the high point of inflation in the first half of the year. If there is no sudden supply shock at home and abroad, the inflation trend in the first half of the year will most likely remain stable and will not exert tightening pressure on monetary policy. Sex will remain reasonably plentiful.

  The team of Gao Ruidong, Chief Macro Economist of Everbright Securities also believes that with the end of the Spring Festival effect and the narrowing of compensatory consumption space, the upward speed of core inflation will also begin to slow down.

After experiencing the post-epidemic consumption pulse recovery in the first quarter, the subsequent upward height of core CPI still depends on the height of overall consumption recovery, that is, the recovery of residents' income.

Based on the expectation of a moderate recovery in consumption this year and a weak recovery in the real estate market, there is a high probability that the core CPI will gradually approach the pre-epidemic level year-on-year in the future.

Referring to the level of 2019, the core CPI is in the range of 1.5%-2% year-on-year.

  Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that inflation risks in 2023 are relatively controllable.

On the one hand, after the optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the upside risk of my country's core CPI may be lower than that of other overseas countries.

On the other hand, "lard" may resonate to the downside and also help stabilize CPI readings.

  Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the recovery rebound of core inflation can be expected, but the "overshoot rebound" remains to be seen.

In the future, core inflation is more likely to maintain a moderate rebound trend, and as energy and food prices remain stable under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, it is expected that future inflationary pressures will be relatively limited.

  The Northeast Securities macro report predicts that the main drag on the CPI in 2023 will come from a high base, the year-on-year decline in pig prices and oil prices, and the main support will come from the recovery of consumption such as tourism services.

According to the calculation of the influence of the superimposed base, the CPI inflation in 2023 will roughly show a V-shaped trend throughout the year. July will usher in a low point for the year, and the trend will rise in the third and fourth quarters. %Policy target.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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