Behind the "good start" of credit, what hints did the capital side give

　　Author: Qi Ning

　　Credit has ushered in a "good start" in January, and the capital side has already given a signal.

　　The latest financial data released by the central bank shows that in January this year, new RMB loans reached 4.93 trillion yuan, a record high in the history of credit increment in a single month, but undiscounted bank acceptance bills (hereinafter referred to as "bank notes") increased by 177 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Yuan.

Prior to this, the bank bill rediscount rate, which has always been regarded as the "weather vane" of credit, has risen sharply, and the term spread has obviously inverted.

It can be seen that although the new regulations on bills have reduced the room for banks to adjust their credit scale through discounted bills, the relevant indicators still have a predictive effect on credit extension.

　　Institutions are generally optimistic about the credit expectations for February and even the first quarter. The main basis is still the performance of bill interest rates-the bank bill rediscount rate fell at the end of January, and has continued to perform strongly since February.

In this context, the market's expectations for policies such as interest rate cuts have cooled.

However, the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly reminded that considering that the new regulations on bills have affected the "accuracy" of bill interest rate predictions, it is recommended to compare the decline of bill interest rates at the end of the month compared with the average value of the whole month. .

　　Looking back on bill rates from a credit opener

　　According to data from the central bank, social financing increased by 5.98 trillion yuan in January, 195.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year, but RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 730.8 billion yuan, a record single monthly record high.

Among them, the newly added medium and long-term loans of enterprises amounted to 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 74.8%, which was the main contributor to the high credit growth.

　　Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of the banking industry at China Merchants Securities, believes that the recovery of corporate medium- and long-term loans in January is expected to be related to the large number of infrastructure and urban investment loans issued by major banks and policy banks. In addition, the cost of corporate bond issuance is relatively high, or The switch to credit financing had a substitution effect.

　　In fact, the market had already expected the "good start" of the "big credit month" in January that exceeded expectations.

From January to the present, the bank note rediscount rate, which has been regarded as the "leading indicator" of credit, has continued to rise. Among them, the half-year rediscount rate rose to 2.66% at the end of the month, exceeding the highest value since the second half of last year. 1M, 3M, and 6M state stock rediscount Interest rates generally rose by more than 100bps, and once exceeded the three-month interbank offered rate.

According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the half-year city merchants resubsidize the interest rate for the last 3 days, and the average interest rate is 11bps higher than the average value of the whole month.

　　In addition, while medium and long-term loans increased significantly in January, bill financing decreased by 412.7 billion yuan.

The balance of undiscounted bank acceptance bills was 2.96 trillion yuan, a decrease of 14.9% from the same period last year; a single-month increase of 296.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 177 billion yuan.

　　Liao Zhiming pointed out that the reduction in bill financing by more than 400 billion may be related to the reduction in the scale of loans by major banks in the second half of the year.

Li Qilin, director and chief economist of Hongta Securities Research Institute, also analyzed in a recent research report, (this) shows that the credit projects of financial institutions are very sufficient, and it is necessary to raise the bill interest rate to issue tickets to make room for the scale of loans.

"In hindsight, the strong rise in bill interest rates has indeed verified the recovery in the year-on-year growth rate of credit, especially the balance of medium and long-term loans in January's financial and monetary data." Sun Binbin, chief fixed income analyst at Tianfeng Securities, pointed out in the latest report.

　　As a traditional financial instrument rooted in trade activities, bills have the functions of payment, settlement and financing. The reason why it has a predictive effect is related to its dual attribute of credit + capital.

CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the decline in bill interest rates at the end of the month means that banks use bills to "impulse" credit at the end of the month, so credit growth in that month tends to be weak; in addition, observing bill discounts and acceptances can also predict credit market trends. When the acceptance ratio increases, the growth rate of the discounted amount is higher than the invoiced amount, and the credit boom decreases.

　　Although the bank bill rediscount rate declined at the end of the month, it was still higher than the average level in the fourth quarter of last year. Most institutions judged that the credit scale in January this year would be higher than the same period last year.

However, judging from the results, the scale of new credit is still higher than the forecast of most institutions.

　　Previously, Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, and Zhang Licong, chief analyst of asset management and interest rate bonds of CITIC Securities, pointed out that the "Administrative Measures for the Acceptance, Discounting and Rediscounting of Commercial Bills" (hereinafter referred to as the "New Regulations"), which was officially implemented in November last year, made bills The "herald role" of interest rates has changed.

The key points of the new regulations include that the maximum acceptance balance of a bank/finance company shall not exceed 15% of the acceptor's total assets, the insurance balance shall not exceed 10% of the deposit scale, and the maximum term of bills shall be shortened to 6 months. The bank bill arbitrage space is reduced by issuing bills to attract deposits. On the other hand, banks are restricted from adjusting the scale of credit through bill discounting.

　　Under the traditional model, banks can quickly adjust the credit scale in the short term through bill discounting and rediscounting, etc., and the funds that are actually invested in the real economy to solve corporate financing difficulties are also prone to credit runs, which leads to risks such as fund idling .

However, it is clearly pointed out that since the supervision and supervision of commercial banks in August last year to control the growth of discounted bills on the balance sheet, the impulse behavior of bills has also been significantly reduced, and the indicative role of bill interest rates at the end of the month has also declined accordingly.

　　In this context, Mingming suggested that the simple observation of the end-of-month interest rate can be replaced by a comparison of the decline in the end-of-month bill interest rate compared with the average value of the whole month. At the same time, considering that the net financing scale and issuance rate of interbank deposit certificates have certain indicative significance for predicting credit, the interbank The certificate of deposit indicator is used as an auxiliary indicator.

　　What are the hints given by the recent characteristics of bank notes?

　　In addition to the sharp rise in interest rates, the recent rediscount rate of bank bills has also shown the characteristics of an inversion of the interest rate term spread, the continuous expansion of the interest rate spread between the bill interest rate and the NCD (interbank certificate of deposit), and the short-term varieties turning to "positive spreads".

Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the banking industry at Everbright Securities, believes that the inversion of bill interest rates is caused by the tightening margins of the liquidity environment, the high credit boom, and the resonance of the contradiction between supply and demand of bills.

　　According to statistics from Everbright Securities, as of January 20, the spread between 1Y and 1M varieties was -70bp, and the highest reached -83bp within the month, an increase of -82bp from the beginning of the year.

During the same period, the interest rate spread between 1M bills and interbank certificates of deposit with the same maturity was 47bp, which was 111bp wider than the beginning of the year, and turned from a negative interest rate spread to a positive one. The 1Y interest rate spread also narrowed significantly to -61bp, narrowing by 39bp from the beginning of the year.

　　"Because it's 'early spring' this year, and after the epidemic prevention and control optimization is released, migrant workers and other Spring Festival travels will be relatively strong, which will lead to a rise in liquidity in mid-January, when taxes and approvals are paid, and M0 exceeds seasonality. As well as the impact of four factors such as the loss of bank deposits in the sandwich layer, DR001 once rose to 1.92% on January 18, which was about 140bp higher than the lowest point in January." He analyzed in the research report that the rapid rise of the fund interest rate is the most direct The impact is to lead to a greater increase in short-term bill interest rates, and then an inversion of the term spread of bill interest rates.

　　Looking back at historical data, the period when the interest rate difference between 1M bills and 1MNCD has risen sharply or is greater than 0 usually corresponds to a stage of high credit prosperity.

Wang Yifeng believes that since January, the interest rate spread between 1M bills and 1MNCD has returned to a positive spread from an inversion of more than -200bp in the previous period, which can further confirm that the credit supply situation is good.

　　The prosperity in January exceeded expectations, what is the credit expectation for February and even the first quarter?

After the high credit data, the market often turns its attention to the sustainability of the credit data, and the recent bill performance may also give many signals.

　　Dong Qi, an analyst at Guotai Junan Macroeconomics, believes that the interest rate of bill reposting dropped significantly from January 28th to 30th, indicating that the credit supply in January is at the forefront, and the credit supply at the end of January may exceed the bank credit line. As a result, some credit reserve projects may be delayed. February.

　　In the same period last year, with the support of policies and other factors, the new credit in January was 3.98 trillion, a record high at that time, but the new credit in February was only 1.2 trillion, a year-on-year decrease.

However, Song Xuetao, a macro analyst at Tianfeng Securities, pointed out that unlike the rapid decline in bill interest rates in February 2022, the bill interest rates in the first half of February this year continued to remain at a relatively high level and rose slightly compared to the end of January. Demand remains resilient.

"And February last year was a small credit month, which can also provide a lower base for the credit data in February this year." Song Xuetao added.

Sun Binbin also believes that the current policy signal is clear, and the performance of bill interest rates in February is still strong, and the economy and credit expectations in February are relatively optimistic.

　　However, there are still many views that worry that under the circumstances of this year's credit recovery may only be weak, the excessive scale of credit in the early stage may put pressure on the sustainability of subsequent credit.

　　In addition, the structural characteristics indicate that the current overall financial conditions have not been restored smoothly, and the market has divergent expectations for the next incremental policy to stabilize growth.

Judging from the performance of the bond market, the market is still expecting the central bank to increase its base monetary supplementation, such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and other policies.

　　Sun Binbin pointed out that under the background of sluggish credit demand and weak social financing, it is expected that the central bank will consider guiding through aggregate and structural tools, but the possibility of lowering the reserve requirement and interest rate is still not high.

Dong Qi also believes that the credit expansion in the first quarter will likely continue, but it still relies more on the support of corporate demand, and structural monetary policy tools are still an important starting point for "wide credit".