There is a solid foundation for the stable operation of prices (Rui Finance)

　　Buying goods and purchasing services, with the restoration of production and living order, the consumer market is gradually heating up.

How is the price level?

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 10, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year in January, and the national industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.8% year-on-year.

Among them, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival effect and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, the CPI returned to the "2 era" and was in a moderate increase range.

Looking forward to 2023, there is still a solid foundation for China's prices to remain stable.

　　Rising consumption boosts CPI rise

　　"In January, due to factors such as the Spring Festival effect and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, consumer prices rose." said Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.

　　From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 2.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month.

From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI changed from being flat last month to an increase of 0.8%.

　　Look at the important component of the CPI "basket" - food prices, which rose by 2.8% month-on-month, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the increase of CPI by about 0.52 percentage points.

Affected by seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh mushrooms, fresh fruits, potatoes and aquatic products rose by 19.6%, 13.8%, 9.2%, 6.4% and 5.5% month-on-month, respectively, and the increase was larger than that of the previous month.

　　Looking at non-food prices, the month-on-month change from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month to an increase of 0.3% affected the CPI increase by about 0.25 percentage points.

With the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, the demand for travel and entertainment consumption has increased significantly, and the prices of air tickets, transportation rental fees, movie and performance tickets, and tourism prices have risen by 20.3%, 13.0%, 10.7%, and 9.3% month-on-month; The prices of housekeeping services, pet services, vehicle repair and maintenance, and hairdressing also all rose due to the return of migrant workers and the increase in demand for services.

　　Wang Zhenxia, ​​an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Economic and Economic Strategy, analyzed to our reporter that generally speaking, prices are relatively high during the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year, which is mainly affected by rising prices of food and services.

This year, especially since the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control, daily consumption such as catering, tourism, and transportation has gradually recovered, which has also driven up prices accordingly.

"The increase in CPI in January is in line with the basic trend of previous years, and also in line with the current market conditions." She said.

　　The overall decline in the price of industrial products

　　In January, affected by factors such as fluctuations in international crude oil prices and the decline in domestic coal prices, the overall price of industrial products continued to decline.

　　From a month-on-month perspective, PPI fell by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 0.5%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point; the price of means of living decreased by 0.3%, and the rate of decline expanded by 0.1 percentage point.

　　"Input factors have affected the price decline of domestic petroleum-related industries," Dong Lijuan said. The prices of oil and natural gas extraction industries fell by 5.5%, the prices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries fell by 3.2%, and the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industries fell by 1.3%.

Coal supply guarantees continue to work hard, and the price of coal mining and washing industries has changed from a 0.8% increase in the previous month to a 0.5% decrease.

　　From a year-on-year perspective, PPI fell by 0.8%, a decline that expanded by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Among the 40 industrial sectors surveyed, 15 saw their prices drop, the same as last month.

According to estimates, in the year-on-year decrease in PPI of 0.8% in January, the carryover effect of last year's price changes was about -0.4 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about -0.4 percentage points.

　　Why do CPI and PPI diverge?

"In recent years, the 'scissors gap' between CPI and PPI has been obvious, which is not only affected by the international market, but also indicates that the upstream production cost has not been smoothly transmitted to the downstream." Wang Zhenxia analyzed that affected by factors such as the epidemic in the early stage, domestic demand in the Chinese market did not start. Chang, production costs are not reflected in downstream industries.

The current epidemic prevention and control has entered a new stage, and various policies have a significant effect on boosting consumption, but the driving effect on the resumption of production and inventory replenishment of manufacturing and newly-started enterprises has yet to be further exerted.

　　Ability to maintain overall price stability

　　The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized in the deployment of economic work in 2023, "focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and prices."

Recently, all relevant departments and localities have implemented the deployment of the central government to make overall plans to ensure supply and stabilize prices.

　　The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized experts to formulate and release technical opinions on wheat and rapeseed antifreeze and drought resistance to promote stable production, and launched a large-scale training on field management techniques in spring to ensure stable and increased production of grain and oil.

The national price work video conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission on February 9 emphasized that in 2023, price authorities at all levels should focus on stabilizing prices, strengthen market supply and price stability, deepen price reforms in key areas, and standardize prices and charging behaviors. , promote the price work to a new level, and make greater contributions to high-quality development.

　　At present, the fight against inflation in the world's major developed economies has not yet ended. What do you think of the price trend in China?

　　"Judging from the current situation, the annual price situation will not exceed the market's general expectations." Wang Zhenxia believes that the specific price level will depend on factors such as the prices of key commodities such as pork, the trend of the world epidemic situation, and international commodity prices. Considering the base effect last year and the recovery trend of Chinese market demand this year, the CPI will maintain an upward tone.

　　"Looking forward to 2023, although international commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels and imported inflationary pressures still exist, there is a solid foundation for my country's prices to remain stable." Wan Jinsong, director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that China's grain production has continued to bumper harvests, and pig production capacity Reasonably sufficient, the supply of important livelihood commodities is sufficient, the basic energy guarantee is strong, the system of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has been further improved, and we have full confidence and ability to continue to maintain overall price stability.

　　Li Jie