Recently, the "Global Gold Demand Trend Report" released by the World Gold Council shows that the annual global gold demand (excluding over-the-counter transactions) in 2022 will increase by 18% year-on-year to 4,741 tons, rising to a new high in the past 11 years, of which 1,337 tons in the fourth quarter Gold demand also hit new highs.

People in the industry generally believe that the large-scale gold purchases by central banks of various countries and the continued strengthening of individual gold investment demand are the main driving factors.

　　In terms of investment demand, the report shows that global gold investment demand (excluding over-the-counter transactions) in 2022 will increase by 10% compared with the previous year. The main driving factors include two aspects: first, the outflow of gold ETFs has slowed down significantly; Investment demand with gold coins remains strong.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, said that from the data point of view, the strong growth in gold demand is mainly due to the increase in demand from central banks and other institutions, as well as the improvement in gold investment demand last year, offsetting the slowdown in demand for gold jewelry and technology manufacturing. Impact.

　　It is worth noting that the report shows that in 2022, the global central bank's annual gold purchase demand will reach 1,136 tons, more than double the 450 tons in the previous year, and set a new high in 55 years.

In the fourth quarter of 2022 alone, global central banks will purchase 417 tons of gold, and the total amount of gold purchased in the second half of the year will also exceed 800 tons.

　　Regarding the increase in the demand for gold by the central banks of various countries last year, Zhou Maohua believes that the main purpose of the central banks is to optimize the structure of their own official reserve assets, promote the diversification of reserve assets, and enhance the ability of reserve assets to resist fluctuations in the global financial market and asset stability.

"From the perspective of the global environment at this stage, the Fed's interest rate hike is coming to an end, the outlook for the US dollar is weak, and the uncertainty of the global political and economic situation is still high, which will increase the attractiveness of gold to a certain extent."

　　From the perspective of consumer demand, the report shows that global gold jewelry demand will be slightly weaker in 2022, falling by 3% to 2086 tons.

This is mainly because factors such as repeated epidemics have limited consumption this year, and China's annual demand for gold jewelry has also dropped by 15%.

　　Wang Lixin, CEO of the World Gold Council China, said that taking China as an example, China's gold jewelry demand in the fourth quarter of 2022 totaled 127 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28%, setting the lowest fourth-quarter demand since 2009.

The main reason is that in early December 2022, the number of people infected with the new crown surged, which significantly affected economic activities during this period, and gold consumption was also under pressure.

　　The recurrence of the new crown epidemic has not only setback the consumption of gold jewelry, but also seriously affected the sales of gold bars and gold coins.

The report shows that the total demand for gold bars and coins in the fourth quarter of 2022 will be 61 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%.

In 2022, China's demand for gold bars and gold coins will total 218 tons, a decrease of 24% compared to 2021 and 18% lower than the 10-year average.

　　Looking forward to 2023, domestic gold jewelry demand and gold physical investment demand are expected to accelerate the rebound.

"First of all, China's economy is expected to accelerate recovery, and the disposable income level of Chinese households is likely to increase accordingly; secondly, commercial banks' continued focus on physical gold sales will also provide support for a boost in demand, especially during the epidemic After the optimization of prevention and control policies; finally, at the moment when the willingness to save reaches a new high, as an effective and stable value store, gold will likely continue to attract a large number of investors." Wang Lixin said.

　　Li Yang, a senior gold investment analyst at Caibai, said that there is a high probability that the demand for gold consumption in 2023 will remain at a high level.

On the one hand, with the optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the recovery of gold jewelry consumption will accelerate. From the past Spring Festival holiday, it can be seen that the consumption of gold jewelry has increased significantly compared with the same period last year and the same period last year; It is expected to slow down the rate hike, which will undoubtedly create conditions for the rise of precious metals. Investors will further increase their demand for gold purchases under the expectation of rising gold prices.

　　"Global gold demand in 2023 should be judged comprehensively from the development and changes of factors such as geopolitics, inflation and monetary policy." Zhou Maohua pointed out that, for example, the recovery of China's economy and the improvement of domestic demand for gold jewelry, the complex global political and economic situation and the When overseas inflation remains high, it will still drive demand for gold; however, once the price of gold rises sharply, the global economic outlook will slow down and interest rates in Europe and the United States are expected to remain high, which may drag down the physical and investment demand for gold. There will be a slowdown.

　　Ma Chunyang