China News Service, February 10th (China News Finance reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the national consumer price (CPI) data for January 2023.

Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival effect and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, the CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year in January, returning to the "2 era".

CPI rise and fall trend chart.

Image courtesy of the National Bureau of Statistics.

+0.3%, the year-on-year increase in CPI expanded in January

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 2.1% in January, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, food prices rose by 6.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the increase of CPI by about 1.13 percentage points.

　　According to Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, among foods, the prices of fresh mushrooms, fresh fruits and fresh vegetables rose by 15.9%, 13.1% and 6.7% respectively; the price of pork rose by 11.8%, a drop of 10.4 percentage points from the previous month; The prices of poultry meat and aquatic products rose by 8.6%, 8.0% and 4.8% respectively; the prices of grain and edible oil rose by 2.7% and 6.5% respectively.

　　"According to calculations, in the year-on-year increase in CPI of 2.1% in January, the carryover effect of last year's price changes was about 1.3 percentage points, and the effect of new price increases was about 0.8 percentage points." Dong Lijuan said that the core CPI after deducting food and energy prices It rose by 1.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month.

The prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits rose month-on-month, and the prices of pork dropped month-on-month

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose by 0.8% in January from flat last month.

Among them, food prices rose by 2.8%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the increase of CPI by about 0.52 percentage points.

　　Dong Lijuan mentioned that in food, affected by seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh mushrooms, fresh fruits, potatoes and aquatic products rose by 19.6%, 13.8%, 9.2%, 6.4% and 5.5% respectively, which was higher than the previous monthly average. There was expansion; the supply of live pigs continued to increase, and the price of pork dropped by 10.8%, which was 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.

The pork sales area of ​​a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.

Photo by China-Singapore Finance and Economics reporter Xie Yiguan

　　A reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics recently noticed in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing that the price of pork front and rear tips is 16.8 yuan per catty, and pork belly is 20.8 yuan per catty.

Compared with the beginning of January, the front and back of the pork have dropped by 3 yuan per catty, and the pork belly has dropped by 5 yuan per catty.

　　In addition, non-food prices changed from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month to an increase of 0.3%, which affected the increase of CPI by about 0.25 percentage points.

Among non-food items, with the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, the demand for travel and entertainment consumption has increased significantly, and the prices of air tickets, transportation rental fees, movie and performance tickets, and tourism prices have increased by 20.3%, 13.0%, 10.7% and 9.3% respectively.

What will happen to the CPI trend in the later period?

　　Pig price is one of the important factors affecting CPI food price changes. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from January 30 to February 5, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 15.91 yuan/kg, a decrease of 4.7% from the previous month. %, up 0.6% year-on-year.

The average ex-factory price of white striped meat was 21.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 5.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year.

　　"Overall, the pressure on the supply side of live pigs is still relatively high in the short term. Although there are obvious signs of improvement on the consumption side, the price of live pigs is likely to continue to fall in the first quarter and remain below the cost line. The second quarter is the traditional off-season for live pig consumption, and the price of live pigs may increase limited. "Said Liu Chenqian, an analyst at Sinolink Securities.

　　Tan Zhuo, an analyst at China Merchants Bank, believes, "Looking forward, in the first half of 2023, the pig cycle will be down and domestic demand will be up. Overall, the year-on-year increase in CPI may still be lower than 2%. The core CPI's chain momentum may rise slightly under the boost of domestic demand. in seasonality."

　　Looking forward to the price of the whole year, Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference earlier, "There is no basis for a sharp rise in prices in 2023. We are still confident that the CPI trend will remain stable this year." (End)