China News Service, February 10th. The National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) data for January 2023 on the 10th.

In this regard, Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, made an interpretation.

  1. The CPI has risen

  In January, due to factors such as the Spring Festival effect and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, consumer prices rose.

  From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI changed from being flat last month to an increase of 0.8%.

Among them, food prices rose by 2.8%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the increase of CPI by about 0.52 percentage points.

In terms of food, affected by seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh mushrooms, fresh fruits, potatoes and aquatic products rose by 19.6%, 13.8%, 9.2%, 6.4% and 5.5% respectively, and the increase was larger than that of the previous month; The supply of live pigs continued to increase, and the price of pork dropped by 10.8%, which was 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.

Non-food prices changed from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month to an increase of 0.3%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.25 percentage points.

In non-food, with the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, the demand for travel and entertainment consumption has increased significantly, and the prices of air tickets, transportation rental fees, movie and performance tickets, and tourism prices have increased by 20.3%, 13.0%, 10.7% and 9.3% respectively; Affected by the return of migrant workers before the festival and the increase in demand for services, the prices of housekeeping services, pet services, vehicle repair and maintenance, hairdressing, etc. all increased by 3.8%-5.6%; affected by fluctuations in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and Diesel prices fell 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively.

  From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 2.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month.

Among them, food prices rose by 6.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the increase of CPI by about 1.13 percentage points.

In food, the prices of fresh mushrooms, fresh fruits and fresh vegetables rose by 15.9%, 13.1% and 6.7% respectively; the price of pork rose by 11.8%, a decrease of 10.4 percentage points from the previous month; the prices of eggs, poultry and aquatic products rose by 8.6% respectively , 8.0% and 4.8%; grain and edible oil prices rose by 2.7% and 6.5% respectively.

Non-food prices rose by 1.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the increase of CPI by about 0.98 percentage points.

Among non-food items, service prices rose by 1.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month; energy prices rose by 3.0%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, of which gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas prices rose by 5.5% and 5.9% respectively and 4.9%, both of which have fallen back.

  According to estimates, in the 2.1% year-on-year increase in CPI in January, the carry-over effect of last year's price changes was about 1.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 0.8 percentage points.

The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

 2. PPI continues to decline

  In January, affected by factors such as fluctuations in international crude oil prices and the decline in domestic coal prices, the overall price of industrial products continued to decline.

  From a month-on-month perspective, PPI fell by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 0.5%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point; the price of means of living decreased by 0.3%, and the rate of decline expanded by 0.1 percentage point.

Imported factors have affected the price decline of domestic petroleum-related industries, among which the prices of oil and natural gas extraction industries fell by 5.5%, the prices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries fell by 3.2%, and the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing industries fell by 1.3%.

Coal supply guarantees continue to work hard, and the price of coal mining and washing industries has changed from a 0.8% increase in the previous month to a 0.5% decrease.

The steel market is expected to be positive, and the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries rose by 1.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points.

In addition, the prices of the agricultural and sideline food processing industry fell by 1.4%, the prices of the computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries fell by 1.2%, and the prices of the textile industry fell by 0.7%; the prices of the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries remained flat.

  From a year-on-year perspective, PPI fell by 0.8%, a decline that expanded by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 1.4%, which was the same as that of the previous month; the price of means of living increased by 1.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points.

Among the 40 industrial sectors surveyed, 15 saw their prices drop, the same as last month.

Among major industries, the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 11.7%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.0 percentage points; the price of chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing industry decreased by 5.1%, the same rate of decline as last month; the price of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased 4.4%, the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points; the price of the textile industry fell by 3.0%, and the decline expanded by 0.9 percentage points.

In addition, the prices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 6.2%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points; the prices of oil and natural gas mining industries rose by 5.3%, a decrease of 9.1 percentage points; the prices of coal mining and washing industries fell by 2.7% from the previous month was up 0.4%.

  According to estimates, in the year-on-year decrease in PPI of 0.8% in January, the carryover effect of last year's price changes was about -0.4 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about -0.4 percentage points.

(China New Finance and Economics)