For the first time since April 2022: why the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange rose above 73 rubles

On Thursday, February 9, the Russian currency is getting cheaper on the Moscow Exchange.

At the beginning of trading, the dollar rose by 1.5%, to 73.39 rubles, the euro - by 1.7%, to 78.7 rubles, and the yuan - by 1.3%, to 10.8 rubles.

The last time similar values ​​could be observed at the end of April 2022.

However, already in the second half of the day the national currency managed to win back part of the losses.

Thus, the cost of the American currency fell to 72.8 rubles, the European one - to 78.4 rubles, and the Chinese one - to 10.7 rubles.

Noticeable fluctuations in the currency market have been going on since the beginning of the week.

One of the reasons for such dynamics could be the emotional reaction of investors to the new energy sanctions of the European Union.

This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the analyst of the management company "Alfa Capital" Alexander Dzhioev.

Recall that on February 5, the countries of the European Union imposed an embargo on the import of Russian oil products.

At the same time, the EU, together with the G7 states, banned its companies from insuring and transporting fuel from the Russian Federation by sea to other regions of the world if the price in the contract exceeds $45 and $100 per barrel, depending on the category of fuel.

“The market fears that as a result of these restrictions, the flow of currency into Russia will decrease.

However, we saw a similar situation back in December after the entry into force of the European embargo on our crude oil.

Nevertheless, then, after the same emotional fluctuations, the ruble exchange rate stabilized,” said Alexander Dzhioev.

According to him, the ruble is still supported by a strong current account surplus.

We are talking about the difference between the inflow of foreign currency from abroad and its outflow from the country.

In 2022, this figure almost doubled compared to 2021 and reached a record $227 billion, according to the materials of the Central Bank.

“Also in favor of the ruble is the restart of the budget rule, according to which the Central Bank sells foreign currency from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to make up for the shortfall in oil and gas budget revenues.

Therefore, we expect that the current growth of the dollar, euro and yuan will not be of a long-term nature, since there are no prerequisites for a significant weakening of the ruble now, ”added Dzhioev.

passion for the budget

Meanwhile, it is precisely the situation around the Russian budget that is now focused on the main attention of investors, believes Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.

In his opinion, the players could take negatively the news of recent days about the state of affairs in the treasury, which put additional pressure on the ruble.

“The revenue base has declined amid sanctions and falling energy prices, while costs have risen sharply due to geopolitical necessity.

Did not add optimism and yesterday's discussion of one-time deductions from corporations to the treasury.

However, there are still more emotions than sensible assessments of the situation.

Therefore, we are waiting for a decrease in the intensity of passions on the budget and the recovery of the ruble against the main currencies in the near future, ”said the interlocutor of RT.

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• © Vladimir Trefilov

As First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Andrey Belousov said the day before, the government is now discussing with big business a one-time voluntary contribution to the budget.

According to media reports, we can talk about the amount of 250 billion rubles.

Moreover, the initiative will affect only those enterprises that have received excess profits in the past two years.

It is assumed that such a payment will support the treasury and not resort to raising taxes for all organizations.

According to the preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Finance, in January 2023 the federal budget of Russia was executed with a deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles.

Thus, the total revenue of the state treasury decreased by 35% compared to the same period in 2022 and amounted to almost 1.36 trillion rubles.

At the same time, spending increased immediately by 59% to 3.12 trillion rubles.

The sharp increase in budget spending was associated with the prompt conclusion of contracts and the financing of some expenditure items in advance, the Ministry of Finance explained.

According to experts of the department, this approach will ensure a more even cash execution of the treasury's expenses throughout 2023, the department is sure.

In turn, a tangible reduction in budget revenues occurred for several reasons.

In particular, January revenues to the treasury, excluding oil and gas, amounted to 931 billion rubles and were 28% less than a year ago.

The Ministry of Finance explained this by a decrease in tax deductions to the budget, but at the same time emphasized that the current indicators correspond to the previously planned dynamics.

Meanwhile, state treasury revenues from the sale of energy resources decreased by 46% compared to the level of January 2022.

Specialists of the Ministry of Finance attribute this state of affairs to the reduction in natural gas exports and the fall in oil prices.

According to the agency, in January 2023, a barrel of Russian Urals oil was sold at about $49.48, while the budget for the current year includes a price of $70.1.

Moreover, on the global market, raw materials were traded at an average of $80.4 per barrel, according to the materials of the World Bank.

At the moment, against the backdrop of Western sanctions, Moscow is redirecting its oil supplies to friendly countries, but is forced to provide significant discounts to attract buyers and fight competitors.

However, as the government believes, the size of the discount provided will have to become smaller in the foreseeable future.

“I hope that this situation will be temporary and the discount should decrease over time, as we observed during 2022, when the discount grew strongly in March-April, then it began to gradually fall and halved,” noted formerly Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

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• © Vitaliy Timkiv

Thus, Russian oil quotes may soon recover and the budget will eventually adapt to new conditions, Mikhail Zeltser believes.

A similar point of view is shared by the director of the analytical department of IC Veles Capital Ivan Manaenko.

“Despite the difficulties, Russian companies maintain sales channels.

At the same time, we have a low external debt and a surplus of ruble liquidity.

Of course, now there are high expenses, but later they will be able to compensate the treasury.

In general, the economy remains quite stable, which provides the main support for the ruble, ”Manaenko emphasized.

Looking at revenue

It should be noted that on February 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin by his decree canceled the requirement in force since last year to sell foreign exchange earnings for a number of exporters.

Recall that in 2022, the authorities obliged businesses to exchange dollars, euros and yuan received from the sale of goods abroad for rubles.

Such a decision at that moment was made to stabilize the situation on the financial market in the face of sanctions.

The abolition of this requirement could put some pressure on the ruble, Mikhail Zeltser believes.

However, as Finam analyst Alexander Potavin told RT, in recent months, Russian oil companies have already stopped exchanging significant amounts of foreign exchange earnings.

“This can be seen both in the collection of taxes and in the dynamics of the sale of foreign currency on the stock exchange.

There is an opinion that the oilmen left the currency for the purchase of the so-called shadow fleet in order to more actively export energy resources to Asia, bypassing the EU sanctions, ”Potavin said.

According to the expert, in the current conditions, the dollar exchange rate may soon rise to 75 rubles, and the euro exchange rate - up to 80 rubles.

This, in turn, will help fill the Russian budget better, Alexander Potavin is sure.

Nevertheless, Mikhail Zeltser does not exclude that in the future the value of the American currency will return to the level of 72 rubles, the European one - to the level of 77 rubles, and the Chinese one - to 10.5 rubles.