After the shortage of automotive chips eases in 2022, in 2023, the discussion on whether the tight supply of automotive chips will usher in an inflection point will be mentioned again.
Since the second half of 2020, the haze of "core shortage" has enveloped the automotive industry for two years.
"One core is hard to find" has become a true portrayal of the automotive industry in the past two years.
Car companies even set up special teams to go to chip factories to "grab chips" to guarantee supply; at the same time, under the wave of domestic substitution, domestic chips are taking advantage of the trend.
Zhang Hong, secretary-general of the New Energy Automobile Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, recently revealed in an interview with a reporter from Shell Finance that in 2022, the Chinese chip industry once grabbed nearly 13% of orders from North American chip imports.
In 2023, will the supply of automotive chips usher in an inflection point, and will the problem of "chip shortage" be alleviated?
The rapid development of intelligent networked vehicles has greatly increased the demand for chips
In recent years, with the rapid development of intelligent networked vehicles, the demand for automotive chips is also growing rapidly.
Qin Shu, secretary-general of the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association, said that the proportion of automotive electronics in the cost of a complete vehicle has risen from 25% in 2012 to 55% in 2021, and each vehicle requires more than 1,000 chips.
According to data released by the semiconductor company HiSilicon, the era of "automotive intelligence + electrification" has begun, driving the increase in the volume and price of automotive chips. It is estimated that automotive semiconductors will account for 50% of the total cost of automobiles in 2030.
Chips are becoming more and more important to intelligent connected cars, but due to the shortage of chips, the shortage of chips has had a great impact on car companies since the second half of 2020.
"Changan Benben E-Star was previously due to a shortage of chips. After a large number of new cars were produced, they were placed in the parking lot. After the chips arrived, they could be installed, transported and delivered." A Changan Automobile related person told the Shell Finance reporter.
In addition, joint venture companies such as Guangqi Honda and Dongfeng Honda have also publicly stated that the delivery of new cars has been affected by the shortage of chips.
Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle 100, said at the 2022 Global Smart Vehicle Industry Summit that in the past three years, the chip shortage has led to a reduction in global automobile production of about 15 million vehicles, and China has exceeded 2 million vehicles.
According to data released by Auto Forecast Solutions, an automotive industry data forecasting company, the shortage of chips has caused a reduction in global automobile production of more than 4.4 million vehicles in 2022.
Chen Liming, President of Horizon, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from Shell Finance that from 2020 to 2022, there will always be a "core shortage" in my country, especially in the automotive industry.
"Although we have seen some reports from public sources that consumer orders are declining, we have not felt that the production capacity and supply of chips in the auto industry have eased."
"Since the epidemic began, because of the more time spent at home and the popularity of consumer electronics products, a large amount of production capacity in the entire market has been transferred to the consumer sector. The development of smart cars has also increased the demand for automotive chips. As the entire market is in a state of short supply , Some car companies will place orders that exceed expectations when purchasing, and this series of factors has led to insufficient supply of car-grade chips." Li Xuan, a senior analyst in the technology industry of Haitong Securities, said.
Car companies take multiple measures to ensure the supply of automotive chips
In order to obtain chips to guarantee the delivery of new cars, in recent years, car companies have taken a number of measures to fight the "supply guarantee war".
Lan Xiangwen, general manager of Changan Automobile Logistics Center, revealed at the 2022 third quarter financial report performance communication meeting that in order to ensure supply, Changan Automobile has formed more than 100 chip supply guarantee teams; Chips are in the warehouse, worth hundreds of millions of yuan.
In addition, in order to obtain the right to prioritize resource allocation, Changan Automobile also paid 2.65 billion yuan in advance to 45 suppliers.
An executive of an independent brand who did not want to be named told the Shell Finance reporter that in addition to spending more money and saving in advance, the senior executives of car companies have also gone to major chip factories to communicate and establish contacts with the senior executives of the chip factories.
Under this trend, the traditional link-based supplier model is changing. OEMs are trying to establish direct contact with core suppliers such as chip factories and battery factories. In the future, more layers of suppliers may also emerge.
In addition to going out to seek more supplies, domestic chip replacement is also becoming the "focus" of car companies.
Changan Automobile stated that in the first half of 2022, Changan Automobile has applied a total of 19 million domestic chips, accounting for 35% of the total application in the industry and ranking first among independent brands.
Chen Liming believes that driven by the "new four modernizations", the automotive industry is undergoing changes. Although smart cars are in a period of fierce competition, the ecological model of open cooperation is the new trend in the development of smart cars in the future.
Looking forward to 2023, according to Zhang Hui, an expert in the China Automotive Research and Political Research Consulting Center and intelligent network policy research, as the epidemic stabilizes, the world resumes work and production in an orderly manner, and the production of automotive chips gradually increases. It is expected that there will be a shortage of automotive chips in 2023. will get some relief.
In addition, due to the sluggish global economy, global automobile production has declined. Under the new supply-demand relationship, the supply of automotive chips will stabilize, and prices are expected to remain stable, and there may even be room for a drop.
Wang Shengyang, chairman of the chip company Naxinwei, told Shell Finance reporters that according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of my country, China will import 538.4 billion integrated circuits in 2022, a decrease of 15% from 2021; 415.6 billion US dollars, a decrease of about 5% compared with 2021.
To a certain extent, this means that my country's industry is paying a higher unit price for imported chips; but since the second half of 2022, the shortage of cores in various industries has gradually eased, and chip prices have gradually returned to normal.
However, Zhang Hong is more cautious about the forecast and price of automotive chip supply this year.
He believes that due to well-known geopolitical reasons in 2023, the factor of chip shortage will not only further exist, but also cause delayed delivery for vehicle manufacturing.
A fuel vehicle needs at least 100-150 chips.
Power battery vehicles need more, especially intelligent networked electric vehicles, the demand for chips is even 2-5 times that of fuel vehicles.
Chip prices are likely to continue to rise.
Can domestic chips speed up to get on the car to alleviate the core shortage dilemma?
Chips are becoming increasingly important in China's smart car industry.
In the past, cars had mechanical structures and small screens. In addition to smart large screens, today's cars also have a large number of vehicle controls, autonomous driving, and even smart cockpits that require chip support.
Auto companies and domestic chip companies are making more attempts, and the localization of auto chips is also accelerating.
Xu Fei, managing director of Wanchuang Investment Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from Shell Finance and Economics that my country's new energy vehicle production is currently in a leading position in the world, and the high growth of new energy vehicles will inevitably drive the research and development of car-level chips. is the final form.
Whether it is an in-vehicle software system, or with the gradual development of the semiconductor industry, after solving the top-level architecture and industrial chain coordination, my country's car-grade chips will usher in the spring.
"In the past, most automotive chips relied on overseas supply, but in recent years, the domestic substitution rate has also been increasing. There will be more and faster advancement of simpler MCU chips and SOC chips." Li Xuan said.
The localization process is accelerating, but it is worth noting that compared with foreign countries, there is a large technological gap between domestic chips.
Zhang Yongwei once said frankly that the supply rate of China's domestic automotive chips is less than 10%, and the lowest is less than 1%, that is, more than 90% of the chips needed for each car are imported or in the hands of foreign companies. Whether it is ordinary chips or some key chips, especially smart chips, the future demand will increase, but the bottleneck will also become higher and higher.
Zhang Hong also pointed out that the rapid development of domestic substitution has positive significance for the safety of China's auto supply chain and the development of the industry, but it may take a long way to fully replace imported chips.
There is a certain technical gap between my country's car-grade chips and foreign products. Vehicle companies dare not easily use domestic chips due to factors such as reliability. At this stage, it is difficult to replace key chips locally.
"The automotive chip industry is an industry with high technical barriers, large capital investment, and a long R&D cycle. Considering the business model of vehicle companies, it is difficult to independently deploy automotive chips, but joint development with chip companies is a more rational choice. .” Zhang Hui thought.
Regarding how to deal with the potential challenge of domestic chip replacement, Wang Shengyang said that while my country's new energy vehicles are leading the world, it is recommended to promote the establishment of a strong local automotive supply chain and support the cultivation of powerful supply chain giants, including Tier1 (first-tier supplier) ) and chip manufacturers.
This will not only ensure the security of the supply chain, but also enable the Chinese auto industry to gain more competitive technological advantages, channel advantages and brand added value, so that the Chinese auto industry can continue to maintain rapid growth in the fierce market competition.
In addition, Wang Shengyang also suggested that the country encourage component companies to go overseas.
"Auto parts suppliers going overseas will help the industry establish a complete supply chain system that masters key technologies, and increase the recognition of China's auto industry in the face of major changes in the global supply chain." He emphasized, "In the face of global competition, the auto industry Local component suppliers expect to receive support from multiple parties to participate in global competition."
Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Bai Haotian Linzi