The policy of centralized land supply will be optimized, and the logic of land auction will change?

　　Chinanews.com, February 7 (Zuo Yukun, reporter from Chinanews Finance and Economics) Under the overall relaxed atmosphere of real estate regulation, the land market has also shown signs of change.

　　In the long and complex real estate industry chain, the upstream land market occupies a unique position.

Or will usher in an optimized centralized land supply policy, what changes will it bring to the land market this year?

Real estate property under construction.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

Centralized land supply will be optimized

　　Recently, a piece titled "Notice on Further Regulating Disclosure of Residential Land Supply Information" (hereinafter referred to as "Notice") has been widely circulated, and many people have interpreted it as "the system of centralized land supply may be cancelled."

　　On February 3, the Ministry of Natural Resources confirmed, "This document is issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources to guide the supply of local residential land.

. Play a positive role in stabilizing and guiding market expectations by fully disclosing information publicly.”

　　"The most important thing to improve the centralized land supply this time is the land supply plan and information. In the past, because the supply was short of demand, the land supply plan had little effect, and the main thing was how to increase the land supply; now most cities have excess supply, and there are regional differences. There are great differences. To maintain the stability of real estate, we must carry out supply-side reforms.” said Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, mentioned: "The land supply information in various places will also be more clear, which will objectively reduce the problem of land information asymmetry, which will have a positive effect on activating the land investment market in 2023 and is worth looking forward to. .”

A commercial residential building in the central district of the city.

Photo by Sun Rui

How is "optimization" reflected?

　　In February 2021, the Ministry of Natural Resources required 22 key urban residential lands to implement the "two concentrations" policy, to issue transfer announcements and organize transfer activities in a centralized manner, and in principle to issue transfer announcements no more than 3 times throughout the year.

　　The centralized land supply model makes the overall cycle of land auctions shorter and the number of supplies less frequent, which is why there is a saying that land is "changing from retail to wholesale".

　　At that time, some analysts pointed out that this move would, to a certain extent, calm the heat of the land market and the upward pressure on housing prices, guide buyers to stabilize their expectations, and help achieve the policy goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations"; The large amount of land supply puts forward higher requirements on the management ability of the government, and it also tests the cash flow operation and financing ability of real estate enterprises.

　　In the new notice, first of all, there is an optimization of the clear number of "three times", which is expressed as "for the plots in the detailed list, the transfer announcement can be issued one or more times within the public proposed transfer time period, and the transfer can be organized in an orderly manner." , and all of them will be launched within the public proposed transfer time period.”

　　"Strict centralized land supply three times a year will play a positive role in stabilizing the market in a market with high market heat, but in the context of market cooling, especially in cities where the cooling is more obvious, it will affect market expectations and real estate companies. Local will may cause negative effects, and optimization at the system level is needed.” Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out.

　　The notice also clarifies that a publicity system for the list of plots to be transferred shall be established.

In principle, the proposed transfer period corresponding to each release of the detailed list shall not be less than 3 months, giving market players sufficient time and expectations.

　　"This also reflects the core point of this policy - to promote the disclosure of supply information." Yan Yuejin said that the three-month buffer period is actually to hope that the land information will be digested by real estate companies and the market, and in essence it is also to hope for land supply. Close connection between work and market demand.

　　"The purpose of centralized land supply is to stabilize the market, but it is also common for urban investment platforms to underpin the situation. According to preliminary statistics, urban investment land acquisitions will account for nearly one-third in 2022. Many plots have been sold successfully but development is stagnant. , This in itself is difficult to play a positive role in the stability of the real estate market." Zhang Bo said.

　　According to the "Top 100 List of National Real Estate Enterprises Acquiring Land in January 2023" released by the Middle Finger Research Institute, the total amount of land acquired by the TOP100 real estate enterprises in January this year was 59.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%. Local state-owned enterprises are still the main force in acquiring land.

　　"Under the old model, if there is no developer to acquire the land, in order to avoid unsold land and maintain land prices, state-owned enterprises and urban investment are needed. The new model sets a longer cycle of 3 months, which can give developers enough Time also gives local governments enough time to acquire land and attract investment.” Li Yujia also thinks.

Real estate property under construction.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

Substantial changes in existing cities

　　With the new changes in the real estate market, the situation of "selling land only three times a year" also showed signs of loosening earlier.

　　In October 2022, the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a document to coordinate with the Provincial Department of Natural Resources to actively seek support from relevant state ministries and commissions, and strive to remove Nanchang from the list of cities for "centralized land supply". Nanchang has also become the first official proposal Cities that intend to withdraw from centralized land supply.

　　Earlier, in September 2022, the Changsha land supply publicity and promotion platform "Give Land Cloud" also issued a notice saying, "In the future, land will no longer be promoted in batches every year, but will be changed to annual normalized continuous update and promotion."

　　Compared with formal official announcements, more cities choose to make adjustments in actual arrangements.

　　In 2022, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other places will all adjust the centralized land supply system by increasing the number of centralized land supply.

Wuhan and Xuzhou took the lead in completing six batches of centralized land supply.

　　Entering 2023, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Zhengzhou and other places have announced the details of the first batch of plots, and some changes have also occurred under the general framework of centralized land supply.

For example, multiple districts in Hangzhou have put forward the principle of "one mature batch, one batch of transfer"; regarding the detailed list of residential land to be transferred by the end of April issued by the downtown area of ​​Chengdu, relevant persons said that this time they will release the list of residential land first , and then multiple announcements can be organized within the land supply list time.

　　"Some cities will still maintain the rhythm of concentrated sales, especially in some cities where the market heat has risen significantly. It is expected that the number of land sales in a single transaction will remain at a certain level in the later period, so as to curb the rapid rise in the heat of the real estate market; some cities that have cooled down It will optimize the number of transfers, and the launch of small quantities and multiple batches will be more conducive to market stability." Zhang Bo believes.

(over)