GDP = gross domestic product from October to December last year will be announced on the 14th of this month.
As inbound demand is recovering due to the recovery of service consumption and the easing of border measures, private sector forecasts are expected to increase for the first time in two quarters.
According to GDP forecasts compiled by 12 private think tanks and other companies for the period from October to December last year, the real growth rate, excluding price fluctuations, was +1.0% to 3.0% on an annualized basis. We anticipate positive growth for the first time in a period.
Of these, all companies expect positive growth in personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP.
Although consumption of services such as travel and eating and drinking is expected to recover due to the spread of COVID-19, there is a growing view that the recovery will lack strength, as real wages will decrease due to rising prices and consumer confidence will deteriorate. increase.
For exports, 11 of the 12 companies are forecasting positive growth as inbound demand is recovering due to an increase in foreign tourists due to the relaxation of border measures.
In addition, as corporate profits continue to be at a high level, there is a view that there is a high level of motivation for investment in "corporate capital investment," such as digitalization. Views are divided.
The Japanese economy is currently facing concerns such as a decline in real wages due to rising prices and a slowdown in overseas economies, and attention is focused on whether this will lead to a full-fledged recovery.