The National Development and Reform Commission announced on the evening of February 3 that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, starting from 24:00 on February 3, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) will increase by 210 yuan per ton respectively. and 200 yuan.

　　The price increase corresponds to an increase of 0.16 yuan for No. 92 gasoline, and an increase of 0.17 yuan for both No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel oil.

According to calculations by Zhuo Chuang Information, a commodity information organization, taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, it will cost 8 yuan more to fill up a box of 92-octane gasoline and 8.5 yuan more to fill up a tank of 95-octane gasoline.

In terms of fuel consumption, taking a small private car with a monthly run of 2,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers as an example, before the next price adjustment window opens (at 24:00 on February 17), consumers’ fuel costs will increase by about 12 yuan .

In the logistics industry, taking a heavy-duty truck with a monthly running distance of 10,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers as an example, before the next price adjustment window opens, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by about 301 yuan.

　　According to The Paper's calculations, since 2023, the price adjustment of refined oil has experienced "two rises and one fall".

After the ups and downs offset each other, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 255 yuan/ton and 245 yuan/ton respectively during the year, corresponding to an increase of about 0.20 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel.

The retail price limit of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country is in the range of 7.5-7.9 yuan per liter.

　　In terms of international crude oil futures, as of the close on February 2, WTI crude oil futures for delivery in March 2023 fell by US$0.53/barrel (-0.69%) to a settlement price of US$75.88/barrel; Special crude oil futures fell US$0.67/barrel (-0.81%) to settle at US$82.17/barrel.

On the 3rd, international oil prices fell significantly.

Since February, oil prices have fluctuated lower.

　　On the day of the price adjustment, in the performance of the domestic commodity futures market, crude oil varieties were green.

At the close of daytime trading on February 3, most of the main domestic commodity futures contracts closed down.

As of 15:00 on the same day, the main fuel oil contract led the decline in the futures market, falling by more than 3%, and low-sulfur fuel oil fell by more than 2%.

The crude oil futures contract of the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center fluctuated at a low level during the day. The main domestic crude oil futures contract 2303 opened at 531.7 yuan. As of the day's close, it closed at 531.9 yuan, down 1.92% or 10.4 yuan;

　　This may seem contradictory.

Why is there an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel in the current round of price adjustment window while the international oil price is falling and the crude oil futures are turning green?

In fact, this is determined by the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism.

　　In accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Prices", the maximum retail prices of domestic gasoline and diesel oil are adjusted every 10 working days according to the changes in crude oil prices in the international market.

How each price is adjusted mainly depends on the comparison between the average value of international oil prices in the 10 working days before the price adjustment and the average value of the 10 working days before the price adjustment. It is not simply determined by the changes in international oil prices in the few days before the price adjustment.

Judging from the change rate of crude oil in this round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, but the overall price went up.

　　Wang Yanting, an energy analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that after China optimized its epidemic prevention and control policies, entry and exit controls were further relaxed, and the market is optimistic about China's energy demand.

In addition, the EIA raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2023 by 50,000 barrels per day to 1.05 million barrels per day. Taking into account the increase in sanctions on Russian oil, concerns about the reduction in fuel supply have increased.

An improved outlook for energy demand combined with fears of supply cuts boosted the continued rebound in oil prices.

In the later period, due to weak refining demand and sluggish exports, the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, and the market mentality tended to be cautious before the announcement of the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, which suppressed crude oil prices, the overall average price of crude oil still rose significantly.

　　Judging from historical price adjustment data, the price adjustment of refined oil and the trend of international oil prices are not "following the rise but not the fall".

Previously, there have been many cases where international oil prices have risen sharply before the price adjustment day, but domestic refined oil prices have been lowered in the current period.

For example, December 17, 2021 is the price adjustment day. In the previous two working days, international oil prices continued to rise, but the current domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively.

According to incomplete statistics from The Paper, similar situations occurred on July 26, March 2021, March 31, 2020, and September 18, 2020.

　　Li Yan, a crude oil analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustments will start to show a downward trend.

At present, the worries of economic recession in Europe and the United States are still continuing, and the actual supply in Russia has not seen a significant decline. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments will be lowered.

　　Wang Xueqin, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that the Fed's rate hike slowdown is in line with market expectations, but the global central bank's tightening monetary policy remains unchanged, which still creates a negative pressure on international oil prices.

On the other hand, OPEC+ maintains the existing production policy unchanged, which obviously supports the bottom of the oil market to a certain extent.

In the short term, the unilateral pressure on international oil prices is still high, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate.

The new round of price adjustments started with lower expectations.