In 2023, the Russian economy may again return to the growth trajectory.

This conclusion was made by experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in their recent study.

According to the report, according to the results of the current year, the country's GDP may increase by 0.3%, although back in October, IMF analysts predicted a fall of 2.3%.

Moreover, already in 2024, the indicator is able to add 2.1% at once, and not 1.5%, as previously assumed.

The economy will recover faster after the crisis period has passed better than expected, follows from the materials of the fund.

So, in 2022, Russian GDP shrank by only 2.2%, while back in the spring a number of experts estimated a possible collapse of 10-20%.

It is curious that the decline that occurred was even less than in the pandemic 2020 (2.7%) and the crisis 2009 (7.8%).

According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, an unprecedented sanction aggression was launched against the country last year with the aim of "crushing our economy in a short time."

However, as the head of state stressed, these plans ultimately failed.

“The blitzkrieg against the Russian economy did not take place… nothing collapsed, and the fundamental foundations for the existence of the Russian economy and the Russian Federation itself turned out to be much stronger than anyone thought about it – even, maybe, we ourselves,” said Vladimir Putin.

  • RIA News

  • © Mikhail Klimentiev

Recall that since the end of 2021, Russia has been trying to negotiate with the United States and NATO on security guarantees.

Among other things, Moscow suggested to the West that they refuse to expand the North Atlantic Alliance to the east and accept Ukraine as part of the bloc.

At the beginning of 2022, the parties held a series of negotiations, but did not reach a consensus, since Washington actually rejected the proposals of the Russian Federation.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Donbass began to deteriorate sharply due to provocations from Kyiv.

As a result, at the end of February, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced first the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, and then the start of a special military operation to protect the DPR and LPR from aggression from Ukraine.

In response, the United States, the European Union and a number of other states began to impose large-scale economic sanctions against Moscow.

In total, over the past 11 months, unfriendly countries have already introduced over 10.9 thousand anti-Russian restrictions.

At the same time, almost 13.7 thousand restrictive measures are now in force against the Russian Federation - more than against Iran, Syria, North Korea, Belarus, Venezuela, Myanmar and Cuba combined.

This is evidenced by the materials of the global sanctions tracking database Castellum.AI.

Restrictions, in particular, affected the banking, financial and energy sectors, as well as aviation and trade.

Along with this, almost half of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves (worth $300 billion) were frozen, and many international companies announced their withdrawal from the Russian Federation.

Initially, the actions of the West provoked an emotional reaction in the financial and consumer markets of Russia.

As a result, the ruble exchange rate collapsed to record levels, the population began to massively buy food and goods, and the supply of foreign products to the country fell sharply.

Against this background, already in April, inflation in annual terms accelerated to almost 18%, the highest level in the last 20 years.

To normalize the situation in the economy, the government, on behalf of the president, approved a plan of priority measures from more than 300 different initiatives.

We are talking, for example, about credit holidays and soft loans for companies, a moratorium on inspections of enterprises, as well as tax breaks for the hotel and IT industries.

“Companies began to receive mainly the assistance that was most in demand during the pandemic.

So, business, among other things, was granted a deferred payment of insurance premiums, which helped enterprises seriously save on costs, ”Nikita Maslennikov, head of the Finance and Economics department at the Institute of Contemporary Development, told RT.

In addition, to curb inflation, the Cabinet of Ministers banned the export of certain goods, provided subsidies to farmers and legalized the so-called parallel imports.

This mechanism made it possible to import original foreign products into the country without the consent of the right holders.

  • RIA News

  • © Natalia Seliverstova

The Central Bank, in turn, temporarily raised the key rate to 20% per annum, limited the withdrawal of capital abroad and introduced a temporary procedure for the circulation of cash in the country.

Also, the actions of the regulator made it possible to ensure the stable operation of the banking sector against the background of the disconnection of Russian financial organizations from international payment systems.

“The Central Bank began to prepare even after the first wave of sanctions in 2014.

So, a system of fast payments, a system for transmitting financial messages and a host of other tools appeared in Russia that made it possible for our financial sector to work autonomously even under the toughest sanctions, ”Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma committee on the financial market, said in an interview with RT.

As a result, due to the measures taken by the country's leadership, inflation in Russia began to slow down and, by the end of 2022, fell below 12%.

Meanwhile, imports began to gradually recover, and the situation on the foreign exchange market stabilized.

Moreover, the ruble not only fully won back sanctions losses, but at some point even managed to strengthen to record levels in recent years.

“If you want to inflict damage on the state, then you need to hit the currency.

Unfriendly countries did just that, but our authorities held back the blow and prevented currency chaos.

Now the ruble is in a comfortable corridor that suits the population, the budget and economic agents, ”Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the HSE Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge, explained in a conversation with RT.

business approach

According to Georgy Ostapkovich, it was precisely the prompt adjustment of business to new realities that played an important role for the economy.

Against the backdrop of sanctions and the exit from the market of a number of foreign partners, companies have adopted new management schemes that have helped to maintain employment.

So, according to the latest calculations of Rosstat, if at the end of 2021 the unemployment rate in Russia was 4.3%, then in November 2022 the figure dropped to 3.7%.

The achieved value was the lowest for the entire post-Soviet period.

It should be noted that Russian entrepreneurs began to buy out the assets of foreign organizations leaving the country.

Moreover, the new owners of the former divisions of foreign companies acted promptly and by the beginning of September, approximately 90% of such enterprises were able to resume work.

This made it possible to save about 150,000 jobs, according to the Center for Strategic Research (CSR).

“Data on the state of the Russian economy suggests that on a national scale, statements about the withdrawal of foreign business from Russia do not have a devastating effect on the country's economy ... contrary to the statements of some foreign politicians,” the CSR study notes.

Meanwhile, most foreign companies continue to operate in Russia.

So, according to the Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, almost 76% of foreign organizations preferred to remain in the country's market, which can "say a lot."

“They believe in good prospects for the development of the economy of our country, they are satisfied with the business climate.

Those who left endure billions of dollars,” Volodin wrote on his Telegram channel.

Meanwhile, many Russian companies, after the departure of some Western competitors, were able to increase their output, Anatoly Aksakov noted.

According to him, we are talking, for example, about such industries as machine and instrument making, as well as electrical engineering.

“Our business began to occupy the vacant niches, as a result of which import substitution has intensified.

That is, specifically in this context, the sanctions even benefited.

The departed foreign companies have lost a tidbit, and it will be more difficult to return.

Some of our enterprises have already learned to work at the level of foreign firms.

Also, partners from China, Turkey and other states are actively coming to us now,” the deputy added.

trade permutation

As part of their sanctions rhetoric, Western states in 2022 began to refuse to purchase Russian oil, and in December they even set a price ceiling for raw materials from the Russian Federation.

The unfriendly countries explained their actions with a desire to reduce energy dependence on Russia, limit Moscow's income from the sale of hydrocarbons and thereby put pressure on the Kremlin.

“Absolutely stupid decision... Those who impose something on us are not in the position today to dictate their will to us,” Vladimir Putin warned.

In response to the actions of the West, Russia stopped supplying its oil to those who joined the price restrictions, and began to actively redirect energy exports to friendly countries.

We are talking about the states of the Asia-Pacific region (APR), Africa and Latin America.

“At the current level of the oil price ceiling … Russian crude oil exports are not expected to be significantly affected as Russian trade is redirected from countries that have adopted sanctions to countries that have not imposed restrictions,” the IMF said.

  • RIA News

  • © Vitaliy Timkiv

At the same time, it is curious that the initiators of trade restrictions against Russian energy eventually faced a shortage of raw materials and a rush in fuel prices.

A similar state of affairs could be observed in other areas, as a result of which inflation in the West rose to its highest levels in recent decades.

“It turned out that it is not so easy to replace our products, and first of all, these are vital goods.

Today we occupy leading positions in world exports of not only oil (11%), but also gas (17.4%), wheat (17.2%), potash fertilizers (20%), ammonia (30%) and a number of other goods .

Thus, Russia, which back in 2021 occupied only 1.85% of world GDP (in current prices), has now become a big problem in terms of import substitution for unfriendly countries, ”said RT Associate Professor of the Department of Statistics of the Russian Economic University.

G.V.

Plekhanova Olga Lebedinskaya.

social landmark

It is noteworthy that even against the backdrop of unprecedented external pressure on the Russian economy, the level of poverty in the country continued to decline.

According to the latest estimates by Rosstat, over the year the number of poor people decreased from 16 million to 15.3 million, and the share of such a population decreased from 11 to 10.5%.

“The decline is really small, but it is important that in the current difficult economic situation there is such a definite positive trend.

It needs to be preserved,” Vladimir Putin said earlier.

According to him, the decrease in the number of low-income Russians is largely due to measures of state support for the population.

So, in 2022, a program for issuing benefits to needy families with children under 17 began to work.

In addition, pensions, the minimum wage (SMIC) and the subsistence minimum (PM) were indexed twice, as a result of which the volume of many social payments increased.

Moreover, from January 1 and February 1, the size of pensions, the minimum wage, the PM and a number of payments were further increased.

The country also launched a universal allowance for needy families with children.

“In the context of poverty reduction, state support measures play a decisive role.

Assistance from the state has become more significant and targeted for citizens with low incomes.

Moreover, the authorities are also implementing other social programs aimed, for example, at supporting employment,” said Nikita Maslennikov.

In general, according to the expert, in 2023 the Russian economy is able to show growth within 1%.

At the same time, already in 2025, the country can completely reach the pre-crisis level, the expert did not rule out.

“Of course, the pace of recovery can be accelerated.

This will largely depend on the effectiveness of economic programs and the stimulation of private investment,” Maslennikov concluded.