With the disclosure of the fourth quarter reports of public funds in 2022, at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the fund manager's "investment strategy and operation analysis of the fund during the reporting period" in the four quarter reports is quite forward-looking.

  Some fund managers reviewed and reflected on their previous investment actions; some fund managers shared their investment thinking with investors in simple terms.

The industry outlook of fund managers also anchors the layout direction of fund investment in the new year.

How many families are happy and how many families are sad

  From the perspective of performance attribution, funds that have achieved good performance returns in the fourth quarter of 2022 generally seized the favorable opportunity of the rebound in Hong Kong stocks at the end of the year and achieved increased income.

  At the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, the net value growth rate of China Merchants Core Competitiveness Hybrid A managed by China Merchants Fund Zhu Hongyu reached 26.83%.

Zhu Hongyu said in the Four Seasons News that based on the judgment that the capital market has faced a high level of domestic and foreign inventories since the fourth quarter, he focused on increasing holdings of real estate, property, consumption and technology sectors in Hong Kong stocks related to the stabilization and recovery of domestic demand.

  "When the market was extremely pessimistic and panicked in October 2022, we substantially increased our positions in high-quality companies such as the Hong Kong Internet, innovative drugs, and large consumer goods, which made a greater contribution to the growth of net worth." E Fund Fund Chen Hao said.

The E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Growth Hybrid managed by Chen Hao also achieved better returns in the fourth quarter of 2022.

  In addition, some fund managers also explained the relatively weak performance in the Four Seasons Report.

For example, in the fourth quarter, the investment strategy of 'reversal of difficulties' was the strongest in the market, and the strategy of 'prosperity trend' was the weakest. Insufficient understanding of policy-driven strategies", "It is difficult for the fund to judge whether the current valuation of some sectors is low enough, and it is not good at responding quickly to short-term policies and marginal changes", etc.

Deep thinking behind investment

  In the 2022 Four Seasons Report, some fund managers candidly shared their investment thinking and experience with investors based on their own "fighting" experience in the capital market investment process.

  Hongde Fund Wu Chuanyan's thinking comes more from the deviation of market forecasts.

Wu Chuanyan said that people always tend to think that information that is easy to get is more important, so they give them higher weight when making decisions.

"We need to face up to the judgment and cognitive biases brought about by forecasting problems; instead of spending a lot of time and resources catching things that have a half-probability of going wrong, it is better to focus on things that are easier to make judgments with a high probability." Wu Chuanyan What we hope to find is a high-quality target that conforms to the law of long-term value and can get out of the short-term disturbance of the market.

  Faced with the ups and downs of the market, according to Zhang Kun of E Fund Fund, investors need to maintain a restrained and rational mentality at all times, and do not need a lot of actions, but have great patience.

"What kind of theory do investors use to look at the market, and what kind of investment behavior pattern they will have; any investment system has its limitations, and choosing it means accepting its advantages and disadvantages at the same time; choosing an investment system does not depend on The degree to which you understand it depends on whether you really believe in this concept and whether you can persist as always." Zhang Kun said.

  Looking forward to the first quarter of 2023, Yang Jinjin of the Bank of Communications Schroeder Fund believes that it is still necessary to observe whether there is a strong recovery signal in the economic fundamentals or a new booming track that can accommodate a large amount of funds. If not, the market has a high probability of 2022 Base shock fixes at the end.

Pay attention to the direction of growth

  Judging from the industry outlook in the 2022 Four Seasons Report, fund managers planning for growth generally have a clearer anchoring direction.

China Asset Management Li Yan said that at present, the new energy automobile industry chain and the semiconductor industry chain are the two most important industrial upgrading directions for China.

Yan Siqian of Penghua Fund continues to be optimistic about new energy, intelligent driving, industrial robots and other fields.

"After the domestic economy leads the rest of the world and resumes growth, sustainable growth for a longer period still needs to return to transformation, upgrading and innovative growth, and we must pay attention to the value of leading companies." Yan Siqian said.

  Regarding the forecast of consumption recovery, some fund managers are relatively cautious.

In the view of Chen Jinwei of Baoying Fund, the investment opportunities of "simple epidemic smashing holes and filling holes" in some consumer fields are not the optimal solution when the index and most individual stocks are at a low valuation level.

  In terms of the pharmaceutical sector, Liu Xiao and Qiu Qianqian of Huaan Fund believe that the valuation of the sector is at a historically low level, the demand is resilient, and the rigid demand for follow-up specialist diagnosis and treatment will be replenished.

  ICBC Credit Suisse Fund Zhao Bei is optimistic about the demand for consumer medical care. In addition, innovative drugs and industrial chains have undergone full adjustments, and their valuations are cost-effective.

Rongtong Fund Wanminyuan is optimistic about the medium and long-term prospects of the pharmaceutical sector: "In 2023, driven by the dual drive of fundamentals and policy marginal improvement, the pharmaceutical sector is expected to usher in an increase in valuation. There are many segments of the pharmaceutical sector in the trillion-level market, and there is no shortage of them. Structural opportunity."